Investing.comQwen · 实盘可交易 · 做多市场:美股▲ 赚 +6.67% · 已结算把握 5/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 04:27:17·⟳ 抓取 04:28:27 +1m10s·⚡ 决策 08-28 04:35:03 +6m36s·60.6 天前
Elastic Q1 FY2027业绩全面超预期：EPS $0.70超预期21%，全年指引高于共识，盘后股价涨超16%
Elastic Q1 FY2027财报全面超预期（EPS beat 21%、cRPO +21%、RPO +27%、全年指引超共识），基本面催化明确且具持续性。但盘后已涨16%+、前20日已涨30%，入场需限价控制追高风险，以小仓参与分析师上调目标价带来的后续动量。
📄 原文Investing.com↗ 原文
Elastic shares surge 21% on strong Q1 beat and upbeat outlook
Nasdaq ends more than 1.5% higher as tech soars on Nvidia’s blockbuster earnings SAN FRANCISCO - Elastic N.V. (NYSE:EST…
▲ 赚 +6.67%入场 08-27 盘后首笔 @97.10 → 离场 08-28 常规开盘 @103.89
日 K 取自复盘打分切片 · 蓝点/蓝虚线 = 纸面入场价 · 灰虚线 = 纸面离场 · 持有期红底 = 赚(价格在入场线上方)、绿底 = 亏
💡 交易逻辑Q1全面超预期+指引超共识，限价小仓参与分析师上调带来的次日余量
怎么买 限价买入 不高于 99、仅下一个交易日，不成交作废
怎么卖 止盈 +8%(半仓)/+14%(清仓) · 止损 -6% · 时间止损 3日
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
分时走势
做多 ESTC.US Elastic N.V.
建仓日早于近 30 天,只有日线图
成交明细 · 纸面
做多 ESTC.US Elastic N.V.
| 收益状态 | +6.67% 已平仓 |
|---|---|
| 进场成交 | 2026-08-27 · 盘后首笔 · 08-28 04:31 北京 · @97.1 |
| 离场成交 | 2026-08-28 · 常规开盘 · @103.89 |
| 毛收益 | +6.99% |
| 成本 | +0.32% |
| 净收益 | +6.67% |
| 计入收益 | +6.67% |
| 建仓日 | 2026-08-27 · 进场不早于新闻时刻 + 2 分钟 |
收益口径 event_time_plus_2min_10min_walk_open_topup_to_next_open_exchange_calendar_fill_model_local_notional_v9 · method_id m8db1cbc8f2d · 截至 2026-10-27 18:06
研究档案
结论摘要
Elastic Q1 FY2027 EPS $0.70超预期$0.58（+21%），收入$4.78亿超预期，全年EPS指引$3.33超共识$3.24，cRPO +21%/RPO +27%确认AI搜索/安全/可观测需求加速。盘后股价已从$83.74涨至$97.31（+16.2%），但相对52周高点$96.07仍有空间（盘后已突破）。考虑到20日预涨30%+盘后16%已消化大部分beat，以限价小仓参与次日分析师上调带来的余量，不追高。
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-08-27 · 扩散 medium · price-in 风险 high ↗
消息传播链
- Elastic于美股盘后发布Q1 FY2027财报，全面超预期并上调全年指引市场反应:盘后股价从$83.74迅速拉升至$106.78高点后回落至$97.31
- Investing.com AI生成快讯报道财报结果，确认股价涨21.6%市场反应:盘后交易持续活跃，成交量32.7万股
关键理由
- EPS超预期21%+全年指引超共识确认AI驱动的Search/Security/Observability需求加速，cRPO +21%和RPO +27%提供前瞻性收入可见性
- 盘后虽已涨16%但刚突破52周高点，分析师未来1-2日上调目标价可能带来额外动量
- >$100K ACV客户净增创纪录（80+新增，总数超1800）证明企业级AI采用仍在加速
主要风险
- 盘后已涨16%+前20日涨30%，次日开盘若高开>5%则追高空间极为有限，存在冲高回落风险
- 收入beat仅1.8%、全年收入指引仅超共识0.75%，若市场聚焦增速放缓（15% YoY）可能限制进一步上行
反向证据
先例如何影响了这次决策
对本次决策的影响:先例不足无法精确定价；基于上季度经验和盘后已有涨幅，采取限价小仓策略而非激进追高
方向:无法从外部先例定量校准；从KB内部研报知Q4 FY2026（2026年6月）同样全面超预期但F1Q27指引略低于预期，当时股价反应偏中性
涨幅量级:无可用高相似先例定量校准涨幅；基于SaaS财报一般规律，21% EPS beat+指引上调通常支撑5-15%的次日涨幅，但本次盘后已涨16%可能已透支
形态:KB显示上季度（Q4 FY2026）beat后指引略低于预期导致反应偏平；本次指引超共识，方向更正面。盘后从$106.78回落至$97.31显示已有初步获利了结
工具执行结果 · 成功 11 · 降级 1 · 失败 0 · 取消 0
- fetch_decision_experience 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 590 ms
{ - search_processed_events 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 1,207 ms
{"result": "search_processed_events:agent query=`elastic estc q1 fy2027 earnings beat | elastic n.v. 财报 超预期 | estc revenue guidance raised`；结构化索引覆盖完整 72 小时；旧记录兼容扫描近 68.7/72 小时、11733 条本臂决策(完整)，返回 0 条候选。未命中只表示这些 agent query 表达式没有召回候选，不能据此证明消息首发或不是重复；按当前事件继续正常研判。"} - stock_quote 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 2,750 ms
{ - search_case_library 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 422 ms
{"result": "search_case_library「ESTC.US」—— 与这些标的相关的自家决策案例(本页 12 条,该标的全历史相关记录共 12 条；ENTER 只按该标的自己的腿统计):\n◆ ESTC.US：相关历史决策 12 条 · 其中该标的 ENTER 0 条(0.0%) · 我们从没在这只票上 ENTER 过\n【对所查标的真 ENTER 过的:0 条 —— 相关案例里没有该标的自己的 ENTER 腿】\n【最近 12 条其它决策(多为「不做」,用来看这票最近在被什么消息刷屏)】\n• 2026-08-25 UTC(CST 2026-08-26) 不做 · 事件:T - kb_search 降级 stock_tools HTTP · 5,310 ms
{ - web_search 成功 Bing RSS(Tavily 降级后备) · 746 ms
web_search「Elastic ESTC earnings history post-earnings stock reaction 2025 2026」命中 5 条(Bing RSS 后备；Tavily: HTTP 432 {"detail":{"error":"This request exceeds your plan's set usage limit. Please upgrade your plan or contact support@tavily.com"}})： - web_search 成功 Bing RSS(Tavily 降级后备) · 727 ms
web_search「SaaS software stocks large earnings beat after hours next day performance 2026」命中 8 条(Bing RSS 后备；Tavily: HTTP 432 {"detail":{"error":"This request exceeds your plan's set usage limit. Please upgrade your plan or contact support@tavily.com"}})： - web_search 成功 Bing RSS(Tavily 降级后备) · 1,065 ms
web_search「"Elastic" ESTC earnings beat stock surge after hours June 2026 fiscal 2026」命中 5 条(Bing RSS 后备；Tavily: HTTP 432 {"detail":{"error":"This request exceeds your plan's set usage limit. Please upgrade your plan or contact support@tavily.com"}})： - web_search 成功 Bing RSS(Tavily 降级后备) · 998 ms
web_search「ESTC Elastic stock earnings reaction history quarterly results 2024 2025」命中 8 条(Bing RSS 后备；Tavily: HTTP 432 {"detail":{"error":"This request exceeds your plan's set usage limit. Please upgrade your plan or contact support@tavily.com"}})： - web_search 成功 Bing RSS(Tavily 降级后备) · 1,517 ms
web_search「Elastic ESTC Q4 FY2026 earnings results June 2026 stock reaction」命中 5 条(Bing RSS 后备；Tavily: HTTP 432 {"detail":{"error":"This request exceeds your plan's set usage limit. Please upgrade your plan or contact support@tavily.com"}})： - web_search 成功 Bing RSS(Tavily 降级后备) · 877 ms
web_search「SaaS earnings beat gap up next day fade pattern CrowdStrike Datadog MongoDB 2025 2026」命中 5 条(Bing RSS 后备；Tavily: HTTP 432 {"detail":{"error":"This request exceeds your plan's set usage limit. Please upgrade your plan or contact support@tavily.com"}})： - web_search 成功 Bing RSS(Tavily 降级后备) · 1,062 ms
web_search「Elastic NV ESTC quarterly earnings stock price reaction gap 2025」命中 5 条(Bing RSS 后备；Tavily: HTTP 432 {"detail":{"error":"This request exceeds your plan's set usage limit. Please upgrade your plan or contact support@tavily.com"}})：
原文全文
展开原文 · 1,780 字
Nasdaq ends more than 1.5% higher as tech soars on Nvidia’s blockbuster earnings
SAN FRANCISCO - Elastic N.V. (NYSE:ESTC) reported first quarter results that exceeded analyst expectations and issued upbeat guidance for the full year, sending shares up 21.6% as investors responded positively to the company’s momentum across its Search AI, Security, and Observability platforms.
The company posted adjusted earnings per share of $0.70, beating the analyst consensus of $0.58 by $0.12. Revenue reached $478 million, up 15% YoY and above the $469.73 million estimate. For fiscal 2027, Elastic guided to adjusted EPS of $3.29-$3.37, with a midpoint of $3.33 that surpasses the $3.24 consensus. The company expects full-year revenue of $2.00-$2.01 billion, with a midpoint of $2.005 billion exceeding the $1.99 billion estimate.
"Elastic delivered a strong start to fiscal 2027, beating our guidance across all key metrics," said Ash Kulkarni, chief executive officer. "Our record quarter-over-quarter net customer additions to our >$100K ACV cohort and continued strength in cRPO and RPO growth reflect the durability of that demand."
Sales-led subscription revenue, which excludes Monthly Elastic Cloud, grew 18% YoY to $399 million. Current remaining performance obligations increased 21% YoY to $1.153 billion, while total remaining performance obligations rose 27% to $1.854 billion. The company added over 80 customers with annual contract value exceeding $100,000, reaching over 1,800 total customers in this cohort.
For the second quarter, Elastic expects revenue of $486-$487 million, representing 14.9% YoY growth at the midpoint, and adjusted EPS of $0.80-$0.82.
This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.
SAN FRANCISCO - Elastic N.V. (NYSE:ESTC) reported first quarter results that exceeded analyst expectations and issued upbeat guidance for the full year, sending shares up 21.6% as investors responded positively to the company’s momentum across its Search AI, Security, and Observability platforms.
The company posted adjusted earnings per share of $0.70, beating the analyst consensus of $0.58 by $0.12. Revenue reached $478 million, up 15% YoY and above the $469.73 million estimate. For fiscal 2027, Elastic guided to adjusted EPS of $3.29-$3.37, with a midpoint of $3.33 that surpasses the $3.24 consensus. The company expects full-year revenue of $2.00-$2.01 billion, with a midpoint of $2.005 billion exceeding the $1.99 billion estimate.
"Elastic delivered a strong start to fiscal 2027, beating our guidance across all key metrics," said Ash Kulkarni, chief executive officer. "Our record quarter-over-quarter net customer additions to our >$100K ACV cohort and continued strength in cRPO and RPO growth reflect the durability of that demand."
Sales-led subscription revenue, which excludes Monthly Elastic Cloud, grew 18% YoY to $399 million. Current remaining performance obligations increased 21% YoY to $1.153 billion, while total remaining performance obligations rose 27% to $1.854 billion. The company added over 80 customers with annual contract value exceeding $100,000, reaching over 1,800 total customers in this cohort.
For the second quarter, Elastic expects revenue of $486-$487 million, representing 14.9% YoY growth at the midpoint, and adjusted EPS of $0.80-$0.82.
This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.
决策记录链 · 只追加
每次领取产生一条记录,重新决策追加一条并以 supersedes 指向被替代的记录(ADR 0014)。
这条决策早于决策账本(2026-10-08 起逐条追加),没有追加记录。