Affirm FY2026四季度业绩大超预期并给出强于预期FY2027展望

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Introduction & Market Context
Affirm Holdings (NASDAQ:AFRM) presented its fiscal fourth quarter 2026 earnings results on August 27, 2026, revealing what management called its most profitable quarter ever and delivering a substantial earnings beat that sent shares surging 7.92% in after-hours trading to $83.63. The buy-now-pay-later company’s presentation slides showed strong momentum across key metrics, with gross merchandise volume reaching $14.1 billion and adjusted operating margins hitting 30%, while maintaining industry-leading credit quality.
The stock closed the regular session at $77.49, up 1.35%, before extending gains after hours as investors reacted to earnings per share of $4.62—far exceeding the $0.85 analyst consensus—and revenue of $1.17 billion versus the $1.11 billion forecast. The company’s results demonstrated the effectiveness of its strategy to balance growth with profitability while expanding its merchant and consumer networks.
Quarterly Performance Highlights
As shown in the following chart of fourth quarter fiscal 2026 key metrics, Affirm delivered broad-based growth across its business.
The company’s gross merchandise volume of $14.1 billion represented 36% year-over-year growth, while active consumers reached 27.8 million, up 21% from the prior year. Customer engagement deepened significantly, with transactions per active consumer rising 20% to 7.0, indicating stronger retention and repeat usage. Total revenue grew 33% to $1.166 billion, demonstrating the company’s ability to monetize its expanding transaction volume.
The following visualization of GMV and average order value trends over the past nine quarters illustrates the sustained growth trajectory.
While GMV showed consistent quarterly expansion from $7.2 billion in Q4 FY’24 to $14.1 billion in Q4 FY’26, average order value declined modestly from $276 to $266, reflecting a strategic shift toward more frequent, everyday purchases rather than solely large-ticket items. This trend supports the company’s network effect strategy of becoming embedded in consumers’ regular purchasing habits.
Affirm Card Emerges as Major Growth Driver
The company’s direct-to-consumer business, particularly the Affirm Card, demonstrated exceptional growth and emerged as a key differentiator. The following breakdown of direct-to-consumer GMV shows the rapid acceleration of card adoption.
Affirm Card GMV surged 124% year-over-year to $2.8 billion in Q4 FY’26, while active card users grew 125% to 5.2 million. The card attach rate of 19% indicates nearly one in five active Affirm consumers now use the card product. Management has emphasized that card users generate approximately twice the spending of typical Affirm customers, making this a critical driver of both volume and engagement.
Transaction channel data reveals the growing importance of Affirm-initiated transactions. The following chart shows that 26% of transactions now originate through Affirm’s mobile app, website, or card, compared to 74% at traditional point-of-sale.
The GMV composition by product type shows interest-bearing loans comprise 72% of volume with 36% year-over-year growth, while Pay in X short-term products represent 15% of GMV with 41% growth. This mix shift toward interest-bearing products supports the company’s revenue and profitability trajectory.
Merchant Network and Category Diversification
Affirm’s merchant network expansion accelerated significantly, as illustrated in the following chart of active merchant growth.
Total active merchants reached 571,000, representing 51% year-over-year growth, with merchants generating over $1,000 in trailing twelve-month GMV growing 53% to 237,000. This expansion broadens the company’s distribution and reduces concentration risk.
Category performance data shows increasing diversification beyond traditional e-commerce verticals.
While General Merchandise remains the largest category at 31% of GMV with 13% growth, high-growth categories include Services (+98%), Other (+88%), and Home/Lifestyle (+49%). Travel/Ticketing (15% of GMV, +28% growth) and Fashion/Beauty (13% of GMV, +22% growth) also showed strong momentum, demonstrating Affirm’s expanding relevance across consumer spending categories.
Customer Engagement and Retention Metrics
The company’s customer engagement metrics demonstrate strong network effects and loyalty. The following chart shows the growth in active consumers and transaction frequency.
Active consumers grew steadily to 27.8 million while transactions per active consumer increased from 4.9 in Q4 FY’24 to 7.0 in Q4 FY’26, reflecting deepening engagement. This combination of user growth and increased frequency drove total transaction volume.
Customer loyalty is particularly evident in repeat purchase behavior, as shown in the following breakdown of quarterly transactions.
Repeat customers accounted for 96% of total transactions in Q4 FY’26, with 50.9 million repeat transactions compared to just 2.0 million first-time customer transactions. Total transactions grew 41% year-over-year to 52.9 million, demonstrating the company’s ability to drive both acquisition and retention.
Profitability Milestone and Margin Expansion
The fourth quarter marked a significant profitability milestone for Affirm. The following chart illustrates the company’s revenue growth and take rate stability.
Revenue reached $1.166 billion, up 33% year-over-year, while revenue as a percentage of GMV remained stable at 8.3%, down slightly from 8.5% in Q4 FY’25 but within the company’s target range. This stability in take rates while scaling volume demonstrates pricing power and efficient merchant economics.
The company’s key profitability metric, revenue less transaction costs, showed strong expansion as illustrated below.
Revenue less transaction costs reached $589 million in Q4 FY’26, representing 39% year-over-year growth and a 4.2% margin on GMV. Excluding provision for credit losses, this metric reached $812 million with 40% growth and a 5.8% margin. Management guided that this metric would remain above the company’s historical 3.25-4% midterm target range in fiscal 2027, indicating sustained margin expansion.
Operating income performance demonstrated the leverage in Affirm’s business model, as shown in the following comparison of GAAP and adjusted metrics.
GAAP operating income turned positive at $147 million with a 13% margin, compared to a $73 million loss in Q4 FY’24. Adjusted operating income reached $353 million with a 30% margin, up from $130 million and 19% margin two years earlier. This progression illustrates the company’s path to profitability as it scales.
The reconciliation from net income to adjusted operating income provides transparency into the company’s underlying performance.
Net income of $1.617 billion for Q4 FY’26 included a significant tax benefit of $1.448 billion, which explains the substantial GAAP earnings beat reported in the market. Excluding this benefit and other adjustments for depreciation ($86 million), stock-based compensation ($67 million), and enterprise warrant expenses ($53 million), adjusted operating income was $353 million.
Credit Quality and Competitive Positioning
Credit performance remained stable and industry-leading despite the company’s growth and relatively higher exposure to non-prime borrowers. The following chart shows monthly delinquency trends across fiscal years.
Delinquencies of 30+ days as a percentage of active balances (excluding Pay in X loans) stood at approximately 2.6% in March 2026, showing seasonal patterns consistent with prior years. The FY 2026 delinquency curve tracked slightly above FY 2025 but remained well-controlled and below the elevated levels seen in FY 2023.
Affirm’s competitive advantage in credit quality becomes particularly evident when benchmarked against other consumer lenders, as illustrated in the following comparative analysis.
As of June 30, 2026, Affirm’s 30+ day delinquency rate of approximately 2.5% was the lowest among selected consumer lenders, despite having 44% non-prime receivables (FICO scores below 650-660)—higher than Issuer B (35%), Issuer A (26%), and Issuer C (27%). Competitor delinquency rates ranged from 3.2% to 5.3%, with the dv01 Consumer Unsecured Index at 3.2%. This performance demonstrates Affirm’s sophisticated underwriting and credit management capabilities.
Funding Strategy and Capital Efficiency
The company’s funding strategy balances on- and off-balance sheet financing to support growth while maintaining capital efficiency. The following chart shows the evolution of the platform portfolio and funding mix.
The total platform portfolio reached $20.2 billion in Q4 FY’26, up from $15.1 billion a year earlier. The composition included $9.4 billion in off-balance sheet securitized loans, $5.5 billion off-balance sheet non-securitized, $4.1 billion on-balance sheet securitized, and $2.2 billion on-balance sheet non-securitized. Equity capital required as a percentage of the platform remained at a highly efficient 4%.
Funding capacity expanded significantly to support future growth, as shown below.
Total funding capacity reached $30.0 billion, up from $26.1 billion in Q4 FY’25, with utilization at 67%. This provides substantial runway for continued portfolio expansion without requiring additional capital raises. Management indicated the funding mix should remain similar in fiscal 2027, with approximately two non-consolidated asset-backed securities deals expected, consistent with fiscal 2026.
Forward-Looking Statements and Fiscal 2027 Outlook
Management provided detailed guidance for fiscal 2027 that exceeded historical target ranges, as shown in the following outlook summary.
For the full fiscal year 2027, the company expects GMV to exceed $64 billion, revenue as a percentage of GMV around 8.5%, and revenue less transaction costs as a percentage of GMV similar to FY’26. Critically, adjusted operating margin is projected to exceed 30.5%, while GAAP operating margin should surpass 14.5%, both representing continued expansion from FY’26 levels.
For the first fiscal quarter of 2027, Affirm guided to GMV of $13.70-14.00 billion, revenue of $1.190-1.220 billion, and adjusted operating margin of 28-30%. This represents sequential moderation from Q4 FY’26’s 30% adjusted margin, reflecting normal quarterly seasonality.
Key assumptions underlying the outlook include a single annual promotional event with a large enterprise merchant partner in Q4 FY’27, completion of a separate merchant’s transition to its own wallet solution, expected increases in short-term benchmark interest rates during FY’27, equity capital required remaining at or below 5% of total platform portfolio, and international expansion not expected to be a material growth contributor during the year.
Strategic Positioning and Future Initiatives
Chief Executive Max Levchin emphasized the company’s network-oriented approach in commentary accompanying the results. "We are a network. Every decision we make at the product level, at the sales level, at the capital markets level, we ask ourselves, does this benefit every part of our network?" he stated.
On credit management, Levchin stressed the company’s disciplined approach: "We are in control of the credit reality. You would see us slow down growth before you would see us have a real credit disturbance." This philosophy appears validated by the company’s ability to maintain industry-leading delinquency rates while serving a higher proportion of non-prime consumers.
Management highlighted several growth initiatives, including new in-store product features and bank partnership pilots under the Affirm Edge program. However, executives noted that some newer initiatives will take longer to show results, with several next-generation products expected to matter more in fiscal 2029 and beyond, suggesting a patient approach to innovation.
The company continues to enhance the Affirm Card with additional features to make it "the best way to use Affirm," capitalizing on the product’s demonstrated ability to generate twice the spending of typical customers. With a 19% attach rate and 125% year-over-year growth in active users, the card represents a significant opportunity to deepen customer relationships and increase lifetime value.
Affirm’s fiscal Q4 2026 results and forward guidance demonstrate a business model achieving scale profitability while maintaining credit discipline. The combination of 36% GMV growth, 30% adjusted operating margins, industry-leading delinquency rates, and guidance for continued margin expansion in fiscal 2027 positions the company as a leader in the competitive BNPL landscape.
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