Campbell's FY2026四季度收入不及预期、FY2027指引疲弱并削减股息36%，股价盘中跌逾9%

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Introduction & Market Context
The Campbell’s Company (NYSE:CPB) presented its fiscal fourth quarter and full-year 2026 results on September 3, 2026, revealing a challenging operating environment marked by persistent inflation and divergent segment performance. The company’s shares fell 9.27% to $21.58 following the presentation, as investors reacted to a revenue miss and cautious fiscal 2027 guidance that projects continued sales declines and margin pressure.
The presentation highlighted the stark contrast between Campbell’s meals and beverages business, which showed resilience driven by cooking trends and premium sauce growth, and its snacks portfolio, which remained under significant pressure. Management outlined decisive transformation initiatives, including a $500 million enterprise-wide savings program, to address these headwinds.
Quarterly Performance Highlights
Campbell’s fiscal fourth quarter 2026 results reflected the company’s uneven performance across its portfolio. As shown in the following summary of key financial metrics, the company faced broad-based challenges.
Net sales declined 8% to $2.1 billion in the quarter, though organic net sales fell just 1% when excluding the impact of the prior year’s 53rd week. Adjusted EBIT dropped 25% to $242 million, while adjusted earnings per share of $0.39 represented a 37% decline from the prior year. The company’s consumption, as measured by Circana Total US MULO+ data, declined 2.2% in the quarter.
For the full fiscal year 2026, net sales totaled $9.7 billion, down 5%, with organic net sales declining 2%. Adjusted EBIT fell 21% to $1.2 billion, and adjusted EPS of $2.17 was down 27% from fiscal 2025.
The following breakdown of net sales changes illustrates the various factors impacting revenue performance in the fourth quarter.
Volume and mix were essentially flat, contributing a negative 1 percentage point impact, while the absence of the prior year’s 53rd week accounted for a 7 percentage point headwind. The company noted that volume and mix included approximately a 1 percentage point tailwind from lapping the prior year’s ERP-related pull-forward.
Meals & Beverages: Strength in Cooking Occasions
The meals and beverages segment demonstrated positive momentum, with consumption rising 0.8% in the fourth quarter despite ongoing challenges in the eating soup category. The segment’s performance metrics are detailed below.
Organic net sales for meals and beverages grew 3% in the quarter, driven by a 3% improvement in volume and mix. For the full fiscal year, however, organic net sales declined 1% as volume and mix fell 2%.
A key driver of the segment’s relative strength has been the expanding cooking occasions trend. The following chart illustrates the sustained growth trajectory in Campbell’s cooking portfolio.
CPB cooking dollar consumption has posted a 4-year compound annual growth rate exceeding 5%, with fiscal 2026 showing 3.2% growth. Notably, cooking products now represent 52% of the company’s US retail meals and beverages business, up from 37% in fiscal 2023. Management emphasized that "amplifying our relevance within everyday meals by meeting consumers where they find inspiration across social, digital and emerging AI-enabled platforms" is central to the strategy.
The soup category performance breakdown reveals the divergence between cooking and eating occasions.
Broth led the way with 10.7% consumption growth, while condensed soup declined 1.4% and ready-to-serve soup fell 3.3%. For the quarter, CPB cooking consumption rose 6.7%, while eating soup consumption dropped 4.3%. Semi-scratch cooking trends reaccelerated while declines in eating soups eased, according to the presentation.
Rao’s: The Portfolio’s Star Performer
Rao’s continued its exceptional performance trajectory, solidifying its position as Campbell’s premier growth brand. The premium Italian sauce brand’s metrics demonstrate sustained momentum.
Rao’s sauce consumption grew 8.9% in dollars and 8.6% in volume during the fourth quarter, significantly outpacing the Italian sauce category’s 2.7% dollar growth and 1.3% volume decline. For the full fiscal year, total Rao’s consumption increased approximately 10% in the quarter and 11% for the year.
The brand has achieved the #1 dollar share position in the Italian sauce category across all regions, with a 25.2% share in the latest 52-week period, up 170 basis points year-over-year. Despite this success, management noted substantial runway for growth, with household penetration at just 18.9% compared to Prego’s 32%, and unaided awareness at 26% versus Prego’s 48%.
Campbell’s demonstrated its commitment to the brand by acquiring a 49% stake in La Regina, an Italian pasta manufacturer, and increasing marketing support by double digits, with plans for further increases in fiscal 2027.
Snacks Segment: Persistent Challenges
The snacks business remained the portfolio’s most significant challenge, with consumption and sales both declining in the quarter. The segment’s performance metrics are shown below.
Dollar consumption fell 5.1% in the fourth quarter and 3.7% for the full fiscal year. Organic net sales declined 6% in the quarter and 4% for the year, with volume and mix down 6% and 5%, respectively.
Management acknowledged the difficulties but pointed to a "turnaround supported by strengthened leadership, a streamlined category-led operating model and a clear focus on everyday great execution." The company has implemented several initiatives to address the challenges.
Goldfish, the segment’s flagship brand, showed encouraging signs of stabilization. The following chart illustrates the brand’s recent consumption trends.
Goldfish Core returned to growth in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 with a 1.6% increase, and total Goldfish consumption improved to positive 1.6% growth in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026. The brand’s household penetration increased 30 basis points year-over-year, and ecommerce sales grew at double-digit rates.
Management highlighted several initiatives to build momentum in fiscal 2027, including expanded media support, refreshed packaging, and new protein, whole grain, and gluten-free offerings. A successful Pokémon collaboration also contributed to the brand’s improved performance.
Margin Pressure and Cost Inflation
Gross margin compression represented one of the quarter’s most significant challenges. The following waterfall chart details the drivers of the 190 basis point decline in adjusted gross profit margin.
Inflation and other factors drove a 530 basis point headwind to gross margin, partially offset by 380 basis points of improvement from cost savings and supply chain productivity improvements. Volume and mix contributed a 100 basis point decline, while net price realization added 30 basis points. The acquisition of La Regina provided a 30 basis point benefit.
Adjusted gross profit margin fell to 28.6% in the fourth quarter from 30.5% in the prior year. For the full fiscal year, the adjusted gross profit margin declined to approximately 28% from 30%.
The impact of lower gross profit and sales volumes on operating earnings is illustrated in the following EBIT bridge.
Adjusted gross profit declined $98 million, the primary driver of the $79 million decrease in adjusted EBIT. Partially offsetting this were reductions in marketing and selling expenses ($11 million), administrative and R&D expenses ($5 million), and other expenses ($3 million). The adjusted EBIT margin fell to 11.3% from 13.8% in the prior year quarter.
Segment-Level Financial Performance
The divergent performance between Campbell’s two operating segments is evident in their respective financial results. The meals and beverages segment results are shown below.
Meals and beverages net sales declined 4% to $1.2 billion, though organic net sales grew 3% when excluding the 53rd week impact. Operating earnings fell 12% to $181 million, with the operating margin declining to 15.2% from 16.7%. The margin pressure reflected cost inflation that more than offset the benefits of organic growth and productivity improvements.
The snacks segment faced more severe challenges, as illustrated in the following performance summary.
Snacks net sales fell 12% to $950 million, with organic net sales down 6%. Operating earnings declined 34% to $101 million, and the operating margin contracted sharply to 10.6% from 14.1%. Volume and mix declined 6%, while net price realization contributed just 1%. The segment was pressured by weaker consumption, cost inflation, and volume deleverage, according to management.
Strategic Response: Transformation and Cost Savings
In response to the challenging operating environment, Campbell’s outlined a comprehensive transformation strategy centered on five key pillars. Management emphasized that "transforming Campbell’s requires decisive action" and committed to "sharpening execution while investing in their best opportunities."
The company launched a $500 million enterprise-wide savings program spanning fiscal 2027 through fiscal 2030, aimed at improving margins and cash flow to invest in brands. The program encompasses headcount reductions, procurement savings, and supply chain optimization.
Other strategic initiatives include strengthening leadership and streamlining the operating model to clarify decision rights and instill urgency and accountability. The company is also focusing on getting closer to consumers through scalable capabilities that enable faster response times, and transforming how it builds and supports brands by concentrating resources on the best opportunities.
Management also prioritized strengthening the balance sheet through improved cash generation and accelerated deleveraging. The company’s leverage ratio increased to 4.3x from 3.6x in the prior year, reflecting pressured earnings and the La Regina investment.
Fiscal 2027 Outlook and Guidance
Campbell’s provided cautious guidance for fiscal 2027, projecting continued headwinds before improvement later in the year. The following table details the company’s expectations.
Net sales are expected to decline 2% to 4%, with organic net sales down by the same amount. Adjusted EBIT is projected to fall 7% to 12%, and adjusted EPS is forecast at $1.65 to $1.80, representing a decline of 17% to 24% from fiscal 2026’s $2.17.
Key assumptions underlying the guidance include low single-digit benefits from net pricing, raw material and packaging inflation of 5% to 6%, and double-digit logistics inflation. The company expects productivity improvements above 4% of cost of products sold and total operating expenses to decline slightly, including a $50 million impact from resetting incentive plans. Enterprise-wide cost savings are projected to exceed $100 million in fiscal 2027.
Chief Financial Officer Todd Cunfer acknowledged that "Q1 is going to be a very challenging quarter for snacks," with consumption trends still not at needed levels. However, management expects gradual improvement through the year, with positive price realization beginning in the second quarter after promotional investments in the first quarter.
The guidance reflects the company’s current understanding of government policy and tariffs and does not assume any impact from new tariffs or changes to existing tariff rates.
Balance Sheet and Capital Allocation
Campbell’s maintained strong cash generation despite earnings pressure, though capital allocation priorities shifted to emphasize debt reduction. Operating cash flow totaled $1.0 billion in fiscal 2026, down from $1.1 billion in the prior year.
The company returned $496 million to shareholders through dividends ($470 million) and share repurchases ($26 million). Capital expenditures declined to $361 million from $426 million as the company took a more disciplined approach to spending.
Management outlined fiscal 2027 debt reduction initiatives including resetting the dividend, working capital improvement, and disciplined capital spending of approximately $300 million. The dividend reduction, while difficult, was described as necessary to support long-term shareholder value and balance sheet strength.
With the stock trading near its 52-week low of $19.56 and down approximately 35% over the past year, investors appear focused on the company’s ability to execute its transformation strategy and return to profitable growth. Management emphasized that "restoring growth, rebuilding margins and reducing leverage are foundational to sustainable long-term value creation," positioning fiscal 2027 as a critical year for the turnaround effort.
Full presentation:
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