Investing.comQwen · 实盘不做把握 5/10不做原因:风险收益比不佳
北京时间·🕒 发布 21:12:36·⟳ 抓取 21:13:53 +1m17s·⚡ 决策 09-04 21:19:43 +5m50s·52.9 天前
哔哩哔哩定价7亿美元2031年到期可转债，腾讯认购2亿美元并同步减持，公司配套3亿美元回购注销
事件方向MIXED：净回购注销~4.9%股份和$4亿AI投资是正面因素，但腾讯持续减持(5月已减持106万股，本次再减2637万股)、低于市价5%的配售价、可转债潜在稀释(若转股新增~35M股)构成对冲。股价处于严重下行趋势(年初至今跌~50%，13周指数100→85)，做多逆风明显；做空方面事件非明确强空催化(净股份实际减少)，不满足做空红线。两个方向均无足够edge。
📄 原文Investing.com↗ 原文
Bilibili prices $700 million convertible notes due 2031
U.S. job growth smashes expectations in August, unemployment rate remains flat SHANGHAI - Bilibili Inc. (NASDAQ:BILI an…
不做 哔哩哔哩-W（09626.HK）
事件方向MIXED：净回购注销~4.9%和$4亿AI投资是正面，但腾讯持续减持(5月已减106万股，本次再减2637万股)、低于市价5%配售和可转债潜在稀释构成对冲。股价处于严重下行趋势(年初至今-50%，13周指数100→85)，做多逆风明显；做空方面净股份实际减少，不满足强空催化红线。两方向均无足够edge。
不做 Bilibili Inc（BILI.US）
同9626.HK。美股盘前已跌2.87%，但事件结构复杂(净股份减少+腾讯减持+可转债)，市场可能需要1-2个交易日消化。在严重下行趋势中追空或抄底均缺乏足够edge。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
结论摘要
Bilibili定价$7亿可转债，结构上净回购注销~2040万股(~4.9%)是正面，但腾讯同步减持~$4亿现有股份(延续5月减持趋势)、配售价低于市价5%、可转债若转股仍有~8.4%潜在稀释。股价已处严重下行趋势(年初至今-50%，近20日-16%)，盘前已跌2.87%。正面因素(回购注销+AI投资)与负面因素(腾讯减持+下行趋势+潜在稀释)相互对冲，无明确方向性edge，做多逆风、做空不满足红线，故AVOID。
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-09-04 · 扩散 low · price-in 风险 low ↗
主要风险
- 腾讯持续减持B站(5月减持106万股，本次再减2637万股)，若市场解读为大股东信心下降，可能加剧抛压
- 股价处于严重下行趋势(年初至今-50%)，即使事件本身有正面因素，趋势逆风可能压制反弹
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 kb_search · 日期 2026-07-25 · 影响 weakens
股价年初至今跌~50%，处于严重下行趋势；游戏收入预计同比-12%；腾讯5月已开始减持。做多面临强趋势逆风
检索:哔哩哔哩 股价下跌 利空 风险 用户增长放缓 广告 - 做空前查反向 · 来源 kb_search · 日期 2026-09-04 · 影响 weakens
港交所公告明确公司不发行新股、回购注销~2040万股(~4.9%)，净效果为股份减少而非稀释；腾讯$2亿可转债认购显示持续战略参与。做空缺乏强空催化
检索:Bilibili 回购 注销 正面 净股份减少 原文 ↗
先例如何影响了这次决策
对本次决策的影响:先例不改变AVOID结论：唯一可比案例条件差异大(无配售、无下行趋势)，不足以支撑方向性交易
方向:唯一可比先例(QFIN)显示可转债+回购组合在净股份减少时可获正反应，但该先例无同步权益配售且股价趋势完全不同，相似度仅6分
涨幅量级:无高相似对齐先例可用于校准幅度；QFIN的+9%/2日仅作参考方向，不能直接套用
形态:样本不足，无法判断见光死/高开低走模式
历史先例(按相似度)
- 相似度 6/10 QFIN 2025-03-14 奇富科技发行$6.9亿可转债，净收益用于回购，公告后2日涨9% 原文 ↗
QFIN.US公告后+2日反应
相似度依据:同为中概股可转债+回购组合，但QFIN无同步权益配售且当时股价趋势不同
经验:可转债+回购组合若净效果为股份减少，市场可在2日内给出正反应(+9%)，但需配合基本面改善预期
工具执行结果 · 成功 9 · 降级 2 · 失败 0 · 取消 0
- search_processed_events 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 718 ms
{"result": "search_processed_events:agent query=`bili 700 million convertible senior notes | bilibili convertible notes 2031 | bilibili tencent 可转债 回购 | 哔哩哔哩可转债发行`；结构化索引覆盖完整 72 小时；旧记录兼容扫描近 72.0/72 小时、7314 条本臂决策(完整)，返回 0 条候选。未命中只表示这些 agent query 表达式没有召回候选，不能据此证明消息首发或不是重复；按当前事件继续正常研判。"} - fetch_decision_experience 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 376 ms
{ - stock_quote 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 1,866 ms
{ - stock_quote 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 2,464 ms
{ - search_case_library 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 886 ms
{"result": "search_case_library「9626.HK,BILI.US」无历史决策命中(我们过去没在这些标的上决策过,或历史尚未回填)。\n◆ 9626.HK：相关历史决策 18 条 · 其中该标的 ENTER 0 条(0.0%) · 我们从没在这只票上 ENTER 过\n◆ BILI.US：相关历史决策 25 条 · 其中该标的 ENTER 1 条(4.0%) · 尚无已结算收益(都还没到出场)"} - kb_search 降级 stock_tools HTTP · 19,721 ms
{ - kb_search 降级 stock_tools HTTP · 15,592 ms
{ - kb_fetch_document 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 2,063 ms
{ - kb_search 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 3,575 ms
{ - kb_search 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 3,342 ms
{ - kb_search 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 3,362 ms
{
原文全文
展开原文 · 2,189 字
U.S. job growth smashes expectations in August, unemployment rate remains flat
SHANGHAI - Bilibili Inc. (NASDAQ:BILI and HKEX:9626) announced today the pricing of $700 million in aggregate principal amount of convertible senior notes due 2031, according to a press release statement.
The notes include $200 million subscribed by Tencent Holdings Limited through its subsidiary. The remaining $500 million will be sold to other investors through financial institutions acting as initial purchasers. The notes were offered only to non-U.S. qualified institutional buyers outside the United States.
The notes will mature on September 15, 2031. Holders may convert their notes at an initial conversion rate of 50.3374 Class Z ordinary shares per $1,000 principal amount, equivalent to an initial conversion price of approximately HK$155.79 per Class Z ordinary share. This represents a conversion premium of approximately 28.3% above the closing price of HK$121.40 per Class Z ordinary share on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange today.
The company plans to use proceeds to fund concurrent share repurchases, for AI-driven growth initiatives including content comprehension, recommendation and creation capabilities, and for general corporate purposes.
Bilibili will repurchase 6,795,540 Class Z ordinary shares in a concurrent delta repurchase and 13,591,090 Class Z ordinary shares from Tencent in a concurrent Tencent repurchase. The purchase price for both transactions is HK$115.38 per Class Z ordinary share. The company’s board authorized a special share repurchase program of up to $300 million for these transactions.
The company also announced pricing of a concurrent fixed-price offering of 6,976,760 Class Z ordinary shares at HK$115.38 per share. Tencent separately offered 26,374,900 Class Z ordinary shares at the same price. Bilibili will not receive proceeds from these equity placements.
The Tencent notes subscription and Tencent repurchase require shareholder approval at an extraordinary general meeting. The company expects to convene the meeting in the near future.
This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.
SHANGHAI - Bilibili Inc. (NASDAQ:BILI and HKEX:9626) announced today the pricing of $700 million in aggregate principal amount of convertible senior notes due 2031, according to a press release statement.
The notes include $200 million subscribed by Tencent Holdings Limited through its subsidiary. The remaining $500 million will be sold to other investors through financial institutions acting as initial purchasers. The notes were offered only to non-U.S. qualified institutional buyers outside the United States.
The notes will mature on September 15, 2031. Holders may convert their notes at an initial conversion rate of 50.3374 Class Z ordinary shares per $1,000 principal amount, equivalent to an initial conversion price of approximately HK$155.79 per Class Z ordinary share. This represents a conversion premium of approximately 28.3% above the closing price of HK$121.40 per Class Z ordinary share on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange today.
The company plans to use proceeds to fund concurrent share repurchases, for AI-driven growth initiatives including content comprehension, recommendation and creation capabilities, and for general corporate purposes.
Bilibili will repurchase 6,795,540 Class Z ordinary shares in a concurrent delta repurchase and 13,591,090 Class Z ordinary shares from Tencent in a concurrent Tencent repurchase. The purchase price for both transactions is HK$115.38 per Class Z ordinary share. The company’s board authorized a special share repurchase program of up to $300 million for these transactions.
The company also announced pricing of a concurrent fixed-price offering of 6,976,760 Class Z ordinary shares at HK$115.38 per share. Tencent separately offered 26,374,900 Class Z ordinary shares at the same price. Bilibili will not receive proceeds from these equity placements.
The Tencent notes subscription and Tencent repurchase require shareholder approval at an extraordinary general meeting. The company expects to convene the meeting in the near future.
This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.
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