Galp上调2026年核心利润指引，但终止与Moeve下游业务合并谈判，市场聚焦交易落空

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Investing.com -- Shares in Galp fell dropped 9% on Monday after the Portuguese energy group said it had ended talks on combining its downstream business with Spain’s Moeve, overshadowing a third-quarter profit beat and a raised 2026 outlook.
Galp said "no agreement has been reached" on the combination, announced on Jan. 8. The market had received the plan well, but the timetable for a deal slipped from "by mid 2026" to "by end 2026."
"We see market focus falling on the terminated discussions," Jefferies said in a note.
They said the combination had been seen as positive when first announced, and noted there was no update on shareholder distributions. Jefferies rates the stock "hold" with a €21 price target.
Galp raised its 2026 guidance after third-quarter core profit jumped 67% to €1.52 billion, beating forecasts on record refining margins.
The company now expects 2026 core profit of about €5 billion, up from around €4 billion, and operating cash flow of about €3.9 billion, up from about €3 billion. Organic capital spending remains unchanged at about €1 billion.
Jefferies said the upgrade was only slightly above its own estimates, and that the key takeaway was a strong fourth-quarter refining outlook.
Galp’s guidance implies a fourth-quarter margin of about $34 a barrel, in line with the third quarter and well above Jefferies’ $21.6 forecast.
It raised its Brent crude assumption to $90 a barrel from $80, and its realised refining margin assumption to about $25 per barrel of oil equivalent from $13.
Core profit, on a replacement-cost adjusted basis, topped the €1.47 billion average forecast in a consensus compiled by Galp as of Oct. 19.
Galp’s refining margin was $34.0 per barrel of oil equivalent, versus $9.5 a year earlier, as higher diesel and jet fuel prices met persistent global supply disruptions.
Co-CEOs Maria João Carioca and João Marques da Silva said the nine-month performance supports "yet another upgrade to our full-year guidance.”
Upstream core profit rose to €708 million from €464 million on higher Brazil output as the Bacalhau floating production vessel ramped up, and higher oil and gas prices.
Industrial and midstream earned €639 million, up from €315 million, despite a €125 million hit from accounting lag in oil supply pricing formulas.
Commercial core profit was €147 million, up 24%, on stronger corporate sales, mainly in Spain, and above the highest analyst estimate of €141 million.
Renewables earned €48 million versus €16 million, helped by newly acquired wind farms, though its operating profit of €4 million missed the €18 million average forecast.
Net income on the adjusted basis was €682 million, up 68%, versus an average forecast of €634 million. Reported net income fell 24% to €201 million after €453 million of special charges, mostly from valuing unsettled derivatives at market prices.
Free cash flow was €271 million, down 50%. Net debt was €1.43 billion, or 0.35 times core profit, versus 0.5 times at end-2025. Nine-month core profit was €3.74 billion, up 54%.
On Oct. 7, an arbitration tribunal ruled in Galp’s favour on part of its dispute with Venture Global over an LNG contract. Damages are yet to be set.