LightCounting LightTrendsQwen · 实盘不做把握 7/10不做原因:无增量信息
北京时间·源无时间·以抓取为准·⟳ 抓取 21:14:57·⚡ 决策 09-12 21:19:55 +4m58s·44.9 天前
LightCounting发布2026年9月季度市场综述：Q2光模块出货创纪录、Innolight/Eoptolink营收利润新高、Oracle与中国云厂capex大增，但均为已披露数据的行业汇编
这是一份订阅制行业季度综述，正文的公司级数字（中际旭创、新易盛、英伟达、博通、中国云厂capex）全部是7-8月已披露并已被市场消化的Q2业绩；唯一被描述为“数小时前公布”的Oracle capex属该公司自身财报，方向对其自身双向、且无法在本轮独立核验。A股/港股/美股此刻均闭市，同主题在9/7-9/11已放量重定价（300308近5日+13.8%），本信号不带来新的可交易增量事实，故整体不做。
📄 原文LightCounting LightTrends↗ 原文
NPO Makes All the Headlines, but the Pluggables Set New Sales Records
LightCounting releases Quarterly Market Update – September 2026 As this report goes to print, the industry is wrapping…
不做 中际旭创（300308.SZ）
综述引用的Q2营收33亿美元、净利11.6亿美元是公司7-8月已披露数据，无新增事实；板块9/7-9/11已放量重定价（近5日+13.76%、9/11收926.0元），此刻A股闭市，周末据行业综述追高缺乏edge，且自家在该票20笔ENTER胜率仅35%、中位-1.07%
不做 新易盛（300502.SZ）
Q2营收18亿美元、净利6.98亿美元同为已披露数据，且公司9/11业绩说明会的一手景气与NPO表态已先于本综述公开并被媒体扩散；近5日+9.59%（9/11收423.0元）后无新增可交易催化
不做 甲骨文（ORCL.US）
当季capex 285亿美元（超营收近100亿美元）对其自身是AI投入与自由现金流/负债压力的双向变量，方向不明；该数据点未能在本轮取得一手核验，且属公司财报而非本信号增量，美股此刻闭市
不做 天孚通信（300394.SZ）
仅为板块联动的二阶推断受益方，综述未点名、无公司级新增事实；9/11收跌2.62%（261.96元），缺乏独立可执行的催化边界
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
结论摘要
LightCounting季度综述汇编的是已公开的Q2光模块出货与头部厂商业绩，属行业景气确认而非新催化；相关A股标的本周已因高盛上修等同类消息大涨，周末各市场闭市，无新增可交易事实，故不做。
关键理由
- 行业层面确认光模块需求仍强（Q2出货创纪录、legacy 800G/400ZR同比最多3倍、元件短缺下龙头营收利润仍新高），中期对300308.SZ/300502.SZ基本面是正面背景
- 但这些数字对应的是7-8月已披露半年报与已公开财报，且新易盛9/11业绩说明会已给出一手景气与NPO节奏表态，综述本身不改变任何公司的收入、订单或指引预期
主要风险
- 同主题一周内已放量上涨（300308 9/7 +10.4%、近5日+13.8%；300502 9/7 +8.1%、近5日+9.6%），若周一A股开盘据本综述追高，实质是在已重定价的板块上接力，回撤风险高于新增edge
- 专家纪要（2026-07-15）提示DSP、泵浦激光器与高端陶瓷件短缺可能持续至2027年，供给约束会限制出货兑现节奏；两股当前仍距52周高点30-35%，13周轨迹自高位回落，趋势并非单边上行
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 kb_search · 日期 2026-07-15 · 影响 weakens
专家纪要提示800G/1.6T因DSP、泵浦激光器及高端陶瓷件短缺导致供需失衡、行业缺料或持续至2027年，且泰国产线扩产与国产化受物料和良率限制——需求强但出货兑现受供给约束；同时未发现针对中际旭创/新易盛的新增公司级利空
检索:光模块 行业景气 缺料 EML DSP 短缺 涨价 风险 2026年9月 最新研报 原文 ↗ - 做多前查反向 · 来源 filing · 日期 2026-09-11 · 影响 weakens
300308.SZ 9/7 +10.38%放量、近5日+13.76%、9/11 +4.03%；300502.SZ 9/7 +8.08%、近5日+9.59%；002281.SZ 9/7 +10.0%——同主题景气上修已在本周被市场重定价，且20日累计仍为负，属修复段追高而非低位启动
检索:光模块板块 抢跑 拥挤度 price-in（300308/300502 近20日与近5日日线轨迹） - 做空前查反向 · 来源 kb_search · 日期 2026-09-12 · 影响 none
未发现新的公司级强空催化：相反，公司9/11说明会称行业景气持续高位、订单与客户需求指引良好；因此不满足做空红线，不开SHORT，也不登记risk_signals
检索:光模块 中际旭创 新易盛 利空 砍单 指引下修 监管 2026年9月 原文 ↗
先例如何影响了这次决策
对本次决策的影响:先例缺失不改变结论：本信号是行业综述而非分钟级公司催化，AVOID的依据是“无新增事实+已price-in+周末闭市”，不是幅度不确定
方向:未取得可溯源到首发时刻的同类先例，故不做方向基率判断
涨幅量级:无可用aligned先例校准幅度；本轮结论不依赖幅度
形态:无先例数据支撑见光死/高开低走判断；但自家案例库显示同主题近端两次（2026-09-08高盛上修全球光模块预测、2026-09-09 1.6T设备与高盛报告）均判不做
工具执行结果 · 成功 6 · 降级 2 · 失败 0 · 取消 0
- search_processed_events 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 60 ms
{"result": "search_processed_events:agent query=`cioe 2026 npo 近封装光学 讨论 | lightcounting quarterly market update september 2026 光模块市场 | oracle capex 285亿美元 同比增长235% | 中际旭创 新易盛 二季度 营收 净利润 创纪录 | 光模块 二季度 出货 创纪录 1.6t 800g 以太网 | 英伟达 数据`；结构化索引覆盖完整 72 小时；旧记录兼容扫描近 2.8/72 小时、41 条本臂决策(完整)，返回 0 条候选。未命中只表示这些 age - kb_search 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 3,674 ms
{ - query_modeling_kb 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 43 ms
{"result": "modeling_kb 命中 12 条 (库快照 2026-07-27 · AI 算力链 19 页 · 本次命中证据最新 2026-05-18 · 其中 ⟨预测⟩ 8 条) —— 这是**定期重生成的快照**,不是活数据;比快照更晚的事实以你手上的信号/kb_search 为准。\n\n• [A] 800G+1.6T产能 · 表1 · 光模块厂商格局(营收/毛利率/产能/份额, 日历年) · CY2027E = 93 万只/月 ⟨预测⟩[1][2]\n 依据: 2027年底93万只/月(年化2220万只)\n [1] FactSet 纪要 · 2026-05 - price_snapshot 降级 stock_tools HTTP · 665 ms
{ - search_case_library 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 62 ms
{"result": "search_case_library「300308.SZ,300502.SZ」—— 与这些标的相关的自家决策案例(本页 10 条,该标的全历史相关记录共 832 条；ENTER 只按该标的自己的腿统计):\n◆ 300308.SZ：相关历史决策 552 条 · 其中该标的 ENTER 20 条(3.6%) · 已结算 20 笔 · 胜率 35% · 中位 -1.07% · 均值 -0.75%\n◆ 300502.SZ：相关历史决策 280 条 · 其中该标的 ENTER 4 条(1.4%) · 已结算 4 笔 · 胜率 75% · 中位 +1.87% · 均值 +1. - kb_search 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 2,545 ms
{ - kb_search 降级 stock_tools HTTP · 4,359 ms
{ - kb_search 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 5,679 ms
{
原文全文
展开原文 · 3,134 字
LightCounting releases Quarterly Market Update – September 2026
As this report goes to print, the industry is wrapping up a busy week at CIOE, where NPO dominated many of the discussions. A few years ago, the industry was just as fascinated with linear drive pluggables (LPO), but sales of re-timed pluggable transceivers continue to set up new records.
The latest data from transceiver suppliers, shown in the figure below, illustrates the new record set in Q2 2026 and our estimates for the rest of the year. Sales of Ethernet transceivers account for about 80% of the total market now. Yes, it does include a very modest contribution from LPO/LRO, but the vast majority are the “old-fashioned” fully re-timed modules.
It is also notable that shipments of “legacy products”—800G 2xDR4 and 2xFR4, as well as 400ZR/ZR+, were up sharply in Q2, by up to 3x year-over-year in terms of units, well ahead of our expectations. Unit shipments of 100G and 400G Ethernet transceivers also set new records. Even 10G Ethernet was up. Yes, volume shipments of 1.6T Ethernet transceivers and 800ZR/ZR+ are off to a great start this year, but this was less surprising.
Another surprise announced a few hours ago was Oracle’s capex of $28.5 billion for Q2 2026, which was up 235% year-over-year and 73% quarter-over-quarter, exceeding the revenue for the quarter by almost $10 billion. We have reported on “financial engineering of the future” in the past and this data point is a good example of it.
Tencent’s capex surged 194% y-o-y in Q2, reaching $7.7 billion, up 68% sequentially. Alibaba’s capex was $9.9 billion for the quarter, up 86% year-over-year and up 156% compared to the previous quarter, used primarily to build AI compute infrastructure. Baidu’s capex for the quarter reached $1.67 billion, surging 219% year‑on‑year and 96% quarter‑on‑quarter.
Nvidia commented that it expects to see another 70% growth in capex of cloud companies for 2027—similar to the growth reported by the TOP 4 Cloud companies in 2026. Nvidia must know this well, since the company is engineering multiple financial projects to support the hyper growth.
Nvidia’s Data Center revenue was a record $89.2 billion (93% of total), up 117% y-o-y and up 18% q-o-q. Broadcom’s revenue was a record $29.6 billion, up 86% y-o-y and up 33% q-o-q. Broadcom’s revenue from custom XPU was up 3.5x y-o-y and AI networking was up 2.5x y-o-y.
Leading suppliers of optical transceivers reported record revenues and profits, despite component shortages:
Innolight achieved a record revenue of $3.3 billion in Q2, up 192% year-over-year and up 16% sequentially. The company’s net income was $1.16 billion, up 249% year-over-year and up 40% sequentially. Gross margin increased this quarter, driven by sequential volume growth of 1.6T products.
Eoptolink reported a record revenue of $1.8 billion in Q2, up 109% year-over-year and up 53% sequentially. The company’s net income was $698 million, up 113% year-over-year and up 74% quarter-over-quarter.
Can this get any better?
The Quarterly Market Update report is available to subscribers at: https://www.lightcounting.com/login.
As this report goes to print, the industry is wrapping up a busy week at CIOE, where NPO dominated many of the discussions. A few years ago, the industry was just as fascinated with linear drive pluggables (LPO), but sales of re-timed pluggable transceivers continue to set up new records.
The latest data from transceiver suppliers, shown in the figure below, illustrates the new record set in Q2 2026 and our estimates for the rest of the year. Sales of Ethernet transceivers account for about 80% of the total market now. Yes, it does include a very modest contribution from LPO/LRO, but the vast majority are the “old-fashioned” fully re-timed modules.
It is also notable that shipments of “legacy products”—800G 2xDR4 and 2xFR4, as well as 400ZR/ZR+, were up sharply in Q2, by up to 3x year-over-year in terms of units, well ahead of our expectations. Unit shipments of 100G and 400G Ethernet transceivers also set new records. Even 10G Ethernet was up. Yes, volume shipments of 1.6T Ethernet transceivers and 800ZR/ZR+ are off to a great start this year, but this was less surprising.
Another surprise announced a few hours ago was Oracle’s capex of $28.5 billion for Q2 2026, which was up 235% year-over-year and 73% quarter-over-quarter, exceeding the revenue for the quarter by almost $10 billion. We have reported on “financial engineering of the future” in the past and this data point is a good example of it.
Tencent’s capex surged 194% y-o-y in Q2, reaching $7.7 billion, up 68% sequentially. Alibaba’s capex was $9.9 billion for the quarter, up 86% year-over-year and up 156% compared to the previous quarter, used primarily to build AI compute infrastructure. Baidu’s capex for the quarter reached $1.67 billion, surging 219% year‑on‑year and 96% quarter‑on‑quarter.
Nvidia commented that it expects to see another 70% growth in capex of cloud companies for 2027—similar to the growth reported by the TOP 4 Cloud companies in 2026. Nvidia must know this well, since the company is engineering multiple financial projects to support the hyper growth.
Nvidia’s Data Center revenue was a record $89.2 billion (93% of total), up 117% y-o-y and up 18% q-o-q. Broadcom’s revenue was a record $29.6 billion, up 86% y-o-y and up 33% q-o-q. Broadcom’s revenue from custom XPU was up 3.5x y-o-y and AI networking was up 2.5x y-o-y.
Leading suppliers of optical transceivers reported record revenues and profits, despite component shortages:
Innolight achieved a record revenue of $3.3 billion in Q2, up 192% year-over-year and up 16% sequentially. The company’s net income was $1.16 billion, up 249% year-over-year and up 40% sequentially. Gross margin increased this quarter, driven by sequential volume growth of 1.6T products.
Eoptolink reported a record revenue of $1.8 billion in Q2, up 109% year-over-year and up 53% sequentially. The company’s net income was $698 million, up 113% year-over-year and up 74% quarter-over-quarter.
Can this get any better?
The Quarterly Market Update report is available to subscribers at: https://www.lightcounting.com/login.
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