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LightCounting LightTrendsCodex · 实盘不做把握 6/10不做原因:消息已过时
北京时间·源无时间·以抓取为准·⟳ 抓取 22:50:16·⚡ 决策 08-25 23:45:50 +55m34s·62.6 天前

LightCounting发布2026年5月光模块供应商格局报告,确认中际旭创和新易盛在AI光模块市场领先

这是行业研究报告/榜单披露,方向上利好AI光模块龙头,但核心内容标注为2026年5月且已被公开收录,未发现8月25日新增可交易事实;同时缺少可用真实报价与事件研究工具结果,不能给出ENTER。

📄 原文LightCounting LightTrends↗ 原文
AI Boom Accelerates Transitions Across the Industry Supply Chain
LightCounting releases May 2026 Optical Vendor Landscape Report and TOP10 list of optical transceiver suppliers AI-driv…
不做 中际旭创(300308.SZ)
产业方向利好但本条为May 2026行业报告再传播,缺少8月25日新增事实和可执行报价边界,price-in风险高。
不做 新易盛(300502.SZ)
客户与排名信息正向但已在行业报告中公开,未形成新的订单、指引或量级 surprise。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)

研究档案

结论摘要

LightCounting报告强化了AI数据中心光模块需求、1.6T放量和中国龙头份额提升的产业链逻辑,直接受益标的是中际旭创(300308.SZ)与新易盛(300502.SZ)。但本次信号更像旧报告页面被抓取或再分发,而非新增订单、业绩上修或官方公告;对已被市场长期交易的光模块主线而言,缺少足以改变预期差的新增事实,研究后选择不做。

🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-05 · 扩散 medium · price-in 风险 high ↗ ↗ ↗

消息传播链

  1. 2026-05首发LightCounting一手源原文 ↗
    LightCounting发布May 2026 Optical Vendor Landscape Report,列出光收发器供应商格局和TOP10变化。
  2. 2026-05-05行业媒体转载TrendForce非一手原文 ↗
    TrendForce在5月已讨论AI光互连需求和中国光通信供应商优势,说明行业主线不是8月25日首次出现。
  3. 2026-06财经媒体扩散LightCounting一手源原文 ↗
    LightCounting 6月季度更新继续确认Q1 2026光模块市场高增长及Innolight同比207%增长,构成后续扩散而非本次新增。

关键理由

  • LightCounting确认中际旭创和新易盛在AI光模块供应商格局中处于领先位置,产业方向为正。
  • 报告给出的2025收入与2026年一季度增长显示1.6T、400G/800G光模块需求强劲。
  • 量级上,中际旭创2025年收入约53亿美元、新易盛约35亿美元,但这些是已披露/已传播的历史经营数据,不是本次新增可触达收入。

主要风险

  • 本条为May 2026报告页面,8月25日未见明确新增事实,price-in风险高。
  • 无法取得本轮真实行情、20日轨迹与event_study结果,不能为A股隔夜交易设定可靠入场价和止损。

反向证据

  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-06 · 影响 weakens
    LightCounting 6月报告已复述并延伸5月报告中的高增长信息,削弱8月25日新增性。
    检索:LightCounting May 2026 optical transceiver ranking Innolight Eoptolink already reported 原文 ↗
  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-05-05 · 影响 weakens
    TrendForce早在5月已公开讨论同一AI光互连景气与中国供应商优势,说明本次不是低扩散新催化。
    检索:AI optical transceiver demand Innolight Eoptolink 2026 TrendForce 原文 ↗

先例如何影响了这次决策

对本次决策的影响:先例不足叠加新鲜度不足,使本次不从产业方向升级为交易订单。

方向:行业报告确认景气度通常支持方向,但缺少同市场、同机制、同首发锚点的可验证样本。

涨幅量级:未取得可用event_study结果,不能用先例校准涨幅。

形态:光模块行业景气报告类事件容易被前期主线行情提前交易,存在见光后边际递减风险。

原文全文

展开原文 · 5,774 字
LightCounting releases May 2026 Optical Vendor Landscape Report and TOP10 list of optical transceiver suppliers
AI-driven spending of the leading cloud companies exceeded all expectations in 2025 and it will set up new records in 2026. Apart from flooding the industry with money, the AI boom accelerated transitions across the industry supply chain that were brewing for decades. Most transitions take longer than expected. Nothing seems to happen for years, until suddenly the industry looks different. We are at this moment now.
Adoption of silicon photonics is one example. Intel started developing it at the end of last century. Some silicon photonics pioneers were ridiculed for being the oldest start-ups in the industry. Yet, look at where we are today.
NPO/CPO was first deployed by IBM in 2010, followed by a few smaller projects. Some of the projects failed, others were canceled to the great disappointment of companies and engineers supporting them. Leading industry experts were declaring CPO as being dead or being eternally “two years away.” They may still question CPO’s prospects now in favor of NPO. We will take it.
Optical networks became key elements of data centers and AI clusters, evolving from compute nodes or front-end networks to scale-out, scale-up and probably beyond. Optical circuit switches are gaining adoption beyond Google. Will rotor or packet optical switches come next? Is there something else that optics can be used for?
Pluggable DWDM transceivers for switches and routers have been looked down at by all the leading telecom service providers for more than a decade. All of them are deploying these now, partly because of many joint projects with the leading cloud companies that embraced 400ZR/ZR+ and cannot get enough 800ZR/ZR+ coherent DWDM transceivers now. Deployments of scale-across networks will complete this transition.
All these changes are transforming the industry supply chain and there is more to come. Every company is re-evaluating its strategy. If you are not doing it yet, this is the right time to start.
Figure below illustrates changes in the TOP10 list of optical transceiver suppliers over the last 15 years. The ranking accounts for shipments of Ethernet, DWDM, FTTx and wireless fronthaul transceivers, but the Ethernet market accounted for 75% of the total market in 2025.
A majority of the Japanese and US-based suppliers exited this market by 2020, while Chinese vendors improved their rankings. Innolight and Eoptolink focused their businesses on service to the largest cloud companies in the U.S. and this strategy paid off handsomely in 2024-2025.
Innolight’s revenue in 2024 reached $3.3 billion, a 114% increase year-on-year. The company reported $5.3 billion in revenue for 2025 – up 61% and just above of our estimates of 58% growth in the total transceiver market last year. The company is the leading supplier to all the major cloud companies—the hottest segment of the optical transceiver market. It reported 207% growth in revenues for Q1 2026, compared to Q1 2025, benefiting from a sharp ramp in shipments of 1.6T transceivers.
Eoptolink reached record revenues in 2024 at $1.2 billion and again in 2025 at $3.5 billion – up 175% and 189%, respectively. The company is a key supplier of 400G and 800G optics to Amazon, and it has qualified with other large companies in the U.S., including Nvidia. The company reached the #2 rank for the first time in 2025, surpassing Coherent.
Molex moved up the ranking also benefiting from supplying Amazon with 400G and 800G optical transceivers. The middle of our TOP10 list, rankings from #5 to #8, is the most contentious. These vendors have similar market shares and they are competing fiercely for the #5 spot, while Accelink firmly holds onto the #4 position. Expect more changes in 2026. Neither CIG nor Lumentum plan to stay at the bottom of the list for much longer. Please note that the list accounts for sales of optical transceivers only, excluding all other products, which explains lower rankings of Coherent and Lumentum.
Please note that the list accounts for sales of optical transceivers only, excluding all other products, which explains lower rankings of Coherent and Lumentum. We also no longer include the leading suppliers of DWDM modules in this list, such as Cisco, Ciena, Huawei, Marvell and Nokia. The report ranks these suppliers separately based on the number of DWDM ports shipped.
The role of silicon photonics in optical communications continues to grow. As the silicon photonics supply chain matures, we expect to see two types of foundries to emerge: CPO specialists and silicon photonics generalists.
The CPO specialist needs the most advanced processing node to manufacture high-performance ASICs and Photonic Integrated Circuits (PICs) in house. Intel, Samsung and TSMC fit well here. For these companies, CPO is just another type of advanced packaging technology. As a pioneer of silicon photonics, Intel looks like a generalist now, but we expect it to join the short list of CPO specialists in the future.
All the other foundries will probably become generalists, supporting pluggable transceiver and NPO markets. Some of them may contribute to CPO development as well. Addressing emerging markets outside of optical interconnects will be another function of the generalists.
Another new type of suppliers are companies designing and testing silicon photonic chips. These include several new companies – Sicoya, Silith, and XPhor – first fabless suppliers of PICs. These are fast growing businesses with plans to become publicly traded companies in 2026-2027. Can they replicate the success of numerous fabless IC chip vendors?
The new report is available to subscribers at: https://www.lightcounting.com/login

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