LightCounting LightTrendsCodex · 实盘不做把握 4/10不做原因:证据不足
北京时间·源无时间·以抓取为准·⟳ 抓取 08-25 22:50:19·⚡ 决策 08-26 01:26:40 +2h36m·62.6 天前
LightCounting称OFC 2026显示AI互连正向CPO/NPO开放标准化推进
事件方向偏利好AI光互连生态,但属于行业会议和标准化进展的研究复盘,缺少单一上市公司可量化新增订单、收入指引、客户绑定或未定价的交易边界;同时关键stock_tools不可用,无法完成强制行情与先例验证,因此不输出ENTER。
📄 原文LightCounting LightTrends↗ 原文
OFC 2026: Bringing Order to AI’s Scaling Challenges
Roy Rubenstein, Carol Cao, Stelyana Baleva, Daryl Inniss, Bob Wheeler, Erik Kreifeldt, Igor Lomtev, and Vlad Kozlov Mar…
不做 Broadcom(AVGO.US)
Broadcom与OCI MSA直接相关,但本次是旧标准化进展的行业复盘,未披露新增订单或收入量级,且缺少可验证行情与先例。
不做 NVIDIA(NVDA.US)
CPO路线对NVIDIA长期正面,但对超大市值主标的没有足够新增业绩弹性或未定价短线edge。
不做 Ciena(CIEN.US)
Open CPX/Nubis相关性成立,但缺少订单金额、客户采购和可执行价格,不能下单。
不做 Coherent(COHR.US)
供应链受益逻辑偏长期,当前信号未坐实新增业绩贡献,且无法完成行情和反证工具校验。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
结论摘要
OFC 2026的OCI MSA和Open CPX MSA说明AI互连向开放CPO/NPO生态推进,方向上利好光互连、ASIC与网络设备链条;但当前正文不是订单、财务指引或正式客户采购,更多是行业长期技术路线确认,短线很难落到单一标的的新增业绩弹性和入场价格。
消息传播链
- OCI MSA正式宣布成立,创始成员包括AMD、Broadcom、Meta、Microsoft、NVIDIA和OpenAI,是本次LightCounting复盘中最核心的早期事实之一。
- Open CPX MSA宣布成立,成员包括Ciena、Coherent、Marvell、Molex、Samtec和TeraHop,说明CPX路线在OFC前后已公开。
- LightCounting发布OFC 2026研究简报,综合讨论OCI MSA、Open CPX MSA、CPO/NPO与AI扩展互连趋势。
- Ciena博客继续阐释Open CPX MSA与CPO开放生态,表明该主题已被产业链持续讨论。
关键理由
- OCI MSA与Open CPX MSA强化了AI scale-up互连从专有方案走向开放多供应商生态的产业方向。
- CPO/NPO标准化长期有利于光模块、光引擎、SerDes、交换芯片和连接器供应链的需求可见度。
- 现有产品销售和公司收入基数到本事件新增可触达量无法量化:正文未披露订单金额、采购量、ASP、客户份额或收入转化时间,因此无法估算对候选公司收入、利润或市值的占比。
主要风险
- 本次信息发布时间距OFC 2026和3月12日MSA公告已有数月,作为8月25日信号的新鲜度不足。
- CPO/NPO路线仍存在CPO、NPO、可插拔光模块之间的技术分歧,标准化不等于短期采购落地。
反向证据
先例如何影响了这次决策
对本次决策的影响:先例不足与行情缺失共同把结论压为不交易。
方向:没有完成合规event_study,不能用历史样本支持方向或胜率。
涨幅量级:未取得可用的同市场高相似先例,无法校准tp/sl或短线涨幅。
形态:无法判断是否存在反复见光死或高开低走模式。
原文全文
展开原文 · 4,699 字
Roy Rubenstein, Carol Cao, Stelyana Baleva, Daryl Inniss, Bob Wheeler, Erik Kreifeldt, Igor Lomtev, and Vlad Kozlov
March 26, 2026
AI’s relentless need to scale dominated the latest record-breaking OFC show. It was a key topic at the OFC’s Plenary talks while ‘scale-as-a-prefix’—scale-up, scale-out, scale-across, and even scale-in—were a constant refrain. As Coherent’s CTO Julie Eng said in her Plenary talk, Optics is now inside the machine. The massive interest in AI was also evident on OFC’s first day, during the short courses and workshops. The optics for AI workshops were so full, overflow rooms were needed. This was not the case for OFC’s telecom-related sessions.
OFC 2026 also witnessed an unprecedented number of multi-source agreement (MSA) announcements. The OIF does a fantastic job driving and specifying key electrical and photonic technologies needed for AI. But the wave of announced MSAs represents something new: a recognition by companies of the need to funnel the industry’s technological creativity and bring more order, to ensure commonality and interoperability when scaling AI.
Andy Bechtolsheim of Arista was a dominant presence at OFC 2026, appearing in numerous panel discussions and promoting the new XPO MSA. He summed up the state of the industry as “Nvidia on one side and everyone else on the other.” Nvidia is racing ahead with co-packaged optics (CPO) on its latest Ethernet and InfiniBand switches in production now. The company also disclosed plans for CPO on NVLink switches for scale-up on Rubin-Ultra and Feynman systems. The rest of the industry is also putting more development effort into CPO and Near-Packaged Optics (NPO) developments, but it continues to innovate on pluggable transceivers, the workhorse of networks in AI clusters and many other applications.
Two new MSAs for CPO/NPO were announced at the show: the Open Compute Interconnect Multi-Source Agreement (OCI MSA), and the Open CPX MSA. Founding members of the OCI MSA include AMD, Broadcom, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and OpenAI. One objective of the MSA is to provide clear, unified architectural guidance to transition the industry to low-power optical SerDes, delivering the latency, bandwidth, and energy efficiency required for next-generation AI, including multi-rack scale-up systems. Broadcom’s Near Margalit, who has overseen the company’s three generations of CPO designs, argues the OCI MSA is the most important thing he’s done in his time at Broadcom, if not in his career.
The CPX MSA is based on the pluggable approach pioneered by Nubis, now part of Ciena. The approach can be used for mixed media connectivity, supporting copper and optical interconnects via a common Co-Packaged Copper (CPC) connector developed by Samtec. Current implementation of CPX offers 6.4T of bandwidth using 200G/ lane connections, but it is designed with 400G per lane connectivity in mind. Keren Liu of Ciena commented that CPX MSA defines the form factor, but it is open to multiple implementations for the optics. Vipul Bhatt of Coherent mentioned that CPX form factor can accommodate the optical solution proposed by the OCI MSA and he sees the two MSAs as complementary to each other. Near Margalit of Broadcom did not agree with this point of view.
Both MSAs received solid industry support at OFC, including in discussions at Optica’s Executive Forum event. Gregg Bartlett, CTO of GlobalFoundries, called it “a great move away from the wild west [of CPO/NPO solutions].” Julie Eng, CTO of Coherent, expects to see “many forms of CPO, just like transceivers.” MSAs were critical to the success of the optical transceiver industry.
Lightmatter launched a new initiative within the Open Compute Project (OCP) to develop open specifications and a shared reference architecture for CPO.
NPO is also seeing a resurgence of activity. Large cloud companies are weary of proprietary CPO solutions, and they may deploy NPO solutions first, since there are more NPO suppliers. Brad Booth, who when at Microsoft headed the Consortium of On-Board Optics (COBO) initiative, an earlier era of NPO that ultimately failed, puts the resurgence down to pragmatism as companies expand their options between the current complexities of CPO and pluggable serviceability. COBO was a photonics initiative ahead of its time.
LightCounting’s Research Note does not claim to list all the important announcements at the show, nor does it feature all LightCounting team’s observations from the show. LightCounting’s upcoming reports will include analysis from various parts of the show.
Full text (27 pages) of this research note is available to LightCounting’s subscribers at: https://www.lightcounting.com/login
March 26, 2026
AI’s relentless need to scale dominated the latest record-breaking OFC show. It was a key topic at the OFC’s Plenary talks while ‘scale-as-a-prefix’—scale-up, scale-out, scale-across, and even scale-in—were a constant refrain. As Coherent’s CTO Julie Eng said in her Plenary talk, Optics is now inside the machine. The massive interest in AI was also evident on OFC’s first day, during the short courses and workshops. The optics for AI workshops were so full, overflow rooms were needed. This was not the case for OFC’s telecom-related sessions.
OFC 2026 also witnessed an unprecedented number of multi-source agreement (MSA) announcements. The OIF does a fantastic job driving and specifying key electrical and photonic technologies needed for AI. But the wave of announced MSAs represents something new: a recognition by companies of the need to funnel the industry’s technological creativity and bring more order, to ensure commonality and interoperability when scaling AI.
Andy Bechtolsheim of Arista was a dominant presence at OFC 2026, appearing in numerous panel discussions and promoting the new XPO MSA. He summed up the state of the industry as “Nvidia on one side and everyone else on the other.” Nvidia is racing ahead with co-packaged optics (CPO) on its latest Ethernet and InfiniBand switches in production now. The company also disclosed plans for CPO on NVLink switches for scale-up on Rubin-Ultra and Feynman systems. The rest of the industry is also putting more development effort into CPO and Near-Packaged Optics (NPO) developments, but it continues to innovate on pluggable transceivers, the workhorse of networks in AI clusters and many other applications.
Two new MSAs for CPO/NPO were announced at the show: the Open Compute Interconnect Multi-Source Agreement (OCI MSA), and the Open CPX MSA. Founding members of the OCI MSA include AMD, Broadcom, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and OpenAI. One objective of the MSA is to provide clear, unified architectural guidance to transition the industry to low-power optical SerDes, delivering the latency, bandwidth, and energy efficiency required for next-generation AI, including multi-rack scale-up systems. Broadcom’s Near Margalit, who has overseen the company’s three generations of CPO designs, argues the OCI MSA is the most important thing he’s done in his time at Broadcom, if not in his career.
The CPX MSA is based on the pluggable approach pioneered by Nubis, now part of Ciena. The approach can be used for mixed media connectivity, supporting copper and optical interconnects via a common Co-Packaged Copper (CPC) connector developed by Samtec. Current implementation of CPX offers 6.4T of bandwidth using 200G/ lane connections, but it is designed with 400G per lane connectivity in mind. Keren Liu of Ciena commented that CPX MSA defines the form factor, but it is open to multiple implementations for the optics. Vipul Bhatt of Coherent mentioned that CPX form factor can accommodate the optical solution proposed by the OCI MSA and he sees the two MSAs as complementary to each other. Near Margalit of Broadcom did not agree with this point of view.
Both MSAs received solid industry support at OFC, including in discussions at Optica’s Executive Forum event. Gregg Bartlett, CTO of GlobalFoundries, called it “a great move away from the wild west [of CPO/NPO solutions].” Julie Eng, CTO of Coherent, expects to see “many forms of CPO, just like transceivers.” MSAs were critical to the success of the optical transceiver industry.
Lightmatter launched a new initiative within the Open Compute Project (OCP) to develop open specifications and a shared reference architecture for CPO.
NPO is also seeing a resurgence of activity. Large cloud companies are weary of proprietary CPO solutions, and they may deploy NPO solutions first, since there are more NPO suppliers. Brad Booth, who when at Microsoft headed the Consortium of On-Board Optics (COBO) initiative, an earlier era of NPO that ultimately failed, puts the resurgence down to pragmatism as companies expand their options between the current complexities of CPO and pluggable serviceability. COBO was a photonics initiative ahead of its time.
LightCounting’s Research Note does not claim to list all the important announcements at the show, nor does it feature all LightCounting team’s observations from the show. LightCounting’s upcoming reports will include analysis from various parts of the show.
Full text (27 pages) of this research note is available to LightCounting’s subscribers at: https://www.lightcounting.com/login
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