LightCounting 旧研报称2026年一季度AI光模块供应链销售、利润和订单积压创纪录

LightCounting releases a research note on the early financial results for Q1 2026
by Vlad Kozlov, Erik Kreifeldt, Roy Rubenshtein, Stelyana Baleva, Carol Cao, and Igor Lomtev
May 14, 2026
Q1 2026 financial results reported so far are truly exceptional. We have not seen anything like this in our industry since it “raised from the ashes” left by the telecom bubble of 2000-2001. Is this growth sustainable? Will it accelerate further? Is this a bubble again? LightCounting has been advocating for the industry not to use the word bubble, but it is a fair question now.
Let us summarize the latest quarterly results before we talk about the future. We have to start with Innolight’s records for the quarter: $2.8 billion in sales, up 207% year-over-year and up 51% sequentially; net income of $829 million, up 281% year-over-year and up 60% sequentially. Can this get any better?
Innolight is the fastest growing company in our industry, but according to DIGITIMES Asia, there were 7 companies in the broader semiconductor industry reporting 200% and higher growth rates in early 2026. All of them are benefiting from the AI boom. Yes, let’s use the term ‘boom’, not ‘bubble.’
Among Innolight’s direct competitors, Eoptolink is a distant second with $1.2 billion in sales, up 116% y-o-y and up 3% sequentially. Coherent’s revenue from its data center and communications segment is still higher than Eoptolink’s but is growing slower on a year-over-year basis (at “only” 40%). Lumentum gets second place for growth: up 90% y-o-y and 22% q-o-q, with record sales of $808 million. Lumentum’s transceiver business is growing even faster (more than 120% y-o-y), but it is still modest in size (around $200 million per quarter).
Record backlog was a frequently mentioned phrase during the earnings calls. Cisco’s Acacia reported its strongest quarter ever, with more than $1 billion in orders—up by triple digits. Tower reported $1.3 billion in long-term customer commitments for 2027, with significantly higher-value contracts for 2028, backed by approximately $290 million in prepayments. The company estimated that this is a factor of 6x increase in orders from the same customers compared to 2025. Coherent mentioned “order bookings stretching into calendar 2028 and long-term customer agreements in place through the end of the decade.” Can this get any better?
The record backlogs can be traced to the very top of the supply chain. Google reported that its backlog for cloud services nearly doubled quarter on quarter to over $460 billion. The company expects that over half of the backlog will convert to revenue in the next 24 months. Microsoft reported that its binding contracts for undelivered services (a subset of backlog) increased to $627 billion, up 99% year-over-year.
The Figure below illustrates data on the current backlog for the leading cloud companies. It also shows that close to half of it comes from two start-up companies: OpenAI and Anthropic. What could possibly go wrong?
We would love to see the industry prosper, but please have a Plan B for next year and especially for 2028. The situation can change overnight. Please take all the prepayments and everything else that is tangible now, while continuing to invest to support future demand. There is no doubt that a lot more optics will be needed, but there will be bumps on the road (as usual).
Full text of the research note is available at: https://www.lightcounting.com/login
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Complete analysis of Q1 2026 results and financial trends of the CSP, TSP, equipment, optical components, and semiconductor segments of the communications industry will be published in March in LightCounting’s next Quarterly Market Update.