LightCounting称AI需求推动光通信供应链Q2继续加速但伴随缺货与重复下单

LightCounting releases a research note on the early financial results for Q2 2026
by Stelyana Baleva, Carol Cao, Roy Rubenstein, Igor Lomtev and Vlad Kozlov
August 13, 2026
Q2 2026 financial results reported so far indicate that the market momentum remains positive despite the ongoing concerns about the future of AI. Many suppliers reported acceleration in revenue growth and record bookings. Shortages for a wide range of optical components are limiting the growth, while double ordering is inflating the bookings and forecasts for the future. Our latest forecast offers a more balanced view.
The shortages created opportunities for new suppliers. Having 2-3 suppliers used to be the norm, now it is 5-7. Qualifying and managing all of them is a new challenge. Applied Optoelectronics, Macom, and MaxLinear have already reported accelerating growth in Q2 2026 and we expect to see more examples in the upcoming earnings reports.
Coherent and Lumentum have also reported improvements in growth rates for the last quarter, catching up with Eoptolink and Innolight (reporting at the end of August). Eoptolink has already disclosed a sharp increase in the profits expected for Q2. Accelink and CIG also report sharply higher profits.
Tower Semiconductor reported triple-digit growth (y-o-y) in silicon photonics revenue in Q2 2026. GlobalFoundries plans to double its silicon photonics business in 2026.
Cisco reported “a remarkable 28% y-o-y increase” in the networking segment revenues, up from 25% in Q1, but still shy of Arista’s 38% growth. Cisco reported three new hyperscale AI design wins and 40% growth in orders during the quarter. The company also reported record orders for campus networking – up 20% y-o-y.
Is the AI boom starting to lift “all the boats” (meaning multiple market segments)? The enterprise networking segment is growing and even the telecom networking shows signs of activity:
Capex of Telecom Service Providers (TSPs) is still expected to be flat (or down 1%) in 2026, but AT&T and Comcast reported 16% and 20% y-o-y growth in capex for Q2, respectively. Both companies are investing more in broadband access. Will Verizon join the race? Verizon’s capex was also up, but only by 5% in Q2.
Calix reported 21% y-o-y growth in Q2 and guided for another 15% in the current quarter. Growth in company’s revenue is attributed to sales of broadband equipment and AI-enhanced software to telecom operators. Extreme Networks reported 14% y-o-y growth in product sales, in part driven by success of its agentic AI networking platform.
Capex of the TOP15 TSPs (reported so far) was up 7% in Q2—a positive sign but a tiny step in comparison with the capex of the TOP15 CSPs (reported so far) which was up 83% in Q2. Tencent holds a record for the highest growth—up 194% y-o-y, reaching $7.7 billion for the quarter. Amazon is the largest spender with $54.2 billion for the quarter, up 73% y-o-y. Amazon also increased guidance for 2026 capex from $200 billion to $220 billion.
As discussed in our recent newsletter, the key question is how much CSPs will spend in 2027. The Figure above illustrates the capital intensity of the TOP 4 Cloud companies. It is up sharply: Meta is already at 51% and Microsoft is at 46% in Q2. Oracle (not included in the figure) would have been off the chart at above 80% in Q1. The company reports earnings in early September and the key question is how it intends to finance future investments. Some moderation in spending growth is well needed.
Recent fundraising activities of Anthropic and OpenAI, supported by Nvidia, were widely covered in the media. The numbers start at $500 billion, but being close to a trillion is a preferred option. Some financial experts refer to these activities as the “future for financial engineering.” Any innovation comes with some risk, but we all hope for the best.
Full text of the research note is available at: https://www.lightcounting.com/login
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Complete analysis of Q2 2026 results and financial trends of the CSP, TSP, equipment, optical components, and semiconductor segments of the communications industry will be published in September in LightCounting’s next Quarterly Market Update.