中国融资盘继续降杠杆，AI交易风险偏好受美债收益率和通胀担忧压制

Chinese leveraged traders continue to unwind their bets on stocks, as unease over rising global bond yields and a lingering oil shock add uncertainty to the artificial intelligence trade. The outstanding balance of stocks bought with borrowed money dropped to 2.62 trillion yuan (US$390.1 billion) on Thursday after a brief rebound in August, according to data from China Securities Finance. That was 13 per cent below an all-time high of 3.01 trillion yuan set on June 25. Meanwhile, short positions on stocks rose to 29.2 billion yuan, near a two-year high. The subdued risk appetite aligned with global caution about risk assets after long-duration US Treasury yields rose to multi-year highs and Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh signalled an interest-rate increase unless inflation moderated. Stocks were also capped by Beijing’s reluctance to introduce a broad stimulus package even after key economic data fell short of estimates in July. The pattern indicates that deleveraging, which began during the July sell-off in tech stocks, has yet to run its course and that a strong rebound may still be elusive given that margin trading is a barometer of risk sentiment. The Star Market 50 index, the chip-heavy gauge at the centre of China’s AI trade, is approaching a previous low triggered by the biggest-ever monthly decline in July. The index tumbled 26 per cent that month, tracking a global tumult of tech stocks on jitters over whether massive AI investments would translate into monetisation. Even after the unwinding of leveraged positions, margin traders still have heavy exposure to tech stocks. Zhongji Innolight, a maker of optical transceivers used by US hyperscalers, had 31.5 billion yuan of leveraged positions on Thursday, the second most on the mainland’s three stock exchanges, while its rival Eoptolink Technology was in fifth place with 19.2 billion yuan, according to data from East Money Information. AI chipmaker Cambricon Technologies had 17.5 billion yuan in margin trading balances, ranking eighth place, while ChangXin Memory Technologies, China’s biggest maker of DRAM chips, logged 11.1 billion yuan, putting it among the top 15, the data showed. Meanwhile, household appliance manufacturers were the most-shorted stocks. Air-conditioner maker Gree Electric Appliances and appliance giant Midea Group topped the list with bearish positions of 739 million yuan and 612 million yuan, respectively. Deleveraging would be less of a hindrance for Chinese stocks, while major headwinds were expected to come from rising US Treasury yields and possible redemption of domestic mutual funds that concentrated on tech companies, said Meng Lei, a strategist at UBS Group.