SCMP综述全球炼厂停工致成品油裂解价差大幅走阔，属已知趋势的专题报道而非新催化

This summer, David Chen, a Chinese national living in Japan, got an unexpected lesson in global industrial supply chains – delivered through a bag of potato chips. When popular Japanese snack brand Calbee replaced its signature colourful packaging with monochrome designs, Chen initially assumed it was a marketing gimmick. “Then news reports explained the switch stemmed from a naphtha supply crunch. I even looked up the word,” Chen said. Naphtha, a flammable liquid processed from crude oil, might not be a household name, yet it serves as a foundational input in polyester fibres, packaging and industrial solvents. The squeeze has prompted Japanese media to coin a new term: “naphtha bankruptcies”, reflecting mounting anxiety among some companies over securing vital oil-derived inputs. A June survey by corporate research firm Tokyo Shoko Research underscored the widespread impact, finding that about 80 per cent of more than 7,000 responding firms had difficulty procuring oil-derived products. However, behind Japan’s localised squeeze lies a wider strain on global supply. According to late-August estimates by Goldman Sachs analysts led by Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby, global refinery outages – which take refining capacity offline or force facilities to reduce output – stood 60 per cent above seasonal norms. Market and industry analysts attributed the tight conditions to two main pressures: mounting geopolitical conflict and fuel export controls from China, which has the world’s largest oil-refining capacity. “At first, the industry blamed supply-side tensions on falling crude oil supplies driven by the US-Iran conflict. But June marked a turning point,” wrote Ni Ji, an analyst at Shanghai-based Orient Securities, in a mid-August report. Combined with supply shortfalls, oil-derived product prices are extremely likely to stay elevated Yan Lili, Xinhu Futures While the temporary reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in June eased crude supply constraints, prices for petroleum products stayed much firmer, Ni added. “That was when the industry realised global refinery outages were the real driver,” he wrote. Yan Lili, an analyst at Zhejiang-based Xinhu Futures, said the conflicts in Iran and Ukraine had severely affected global fuel production. “Disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz have forced some Asian refineries heavily dependent on Middle East crude to shut down or scale back output. In parallel, Ukrainian drone strikes have targeted Russian refineries, pushing Russian refinery runs to their lowest level since 2024,” Yan said. At the same time, Beijing imposed temporary curbs on fuel exports in March after the outbreak of the US-Israeli war on Iran. The restrictions, intended to safeguard domestic supplies, were lifted in July, but Yan cautioned their effects were still being felt. “Even though the curbs have been removed, we expect fuel export volumes to remain constrained within the year,” Yan noted. According to the August research note by Goldman Sachs, total global exports of refined products fell 25 per cent year on year in late July and August, with the Persian Gulf and Russia accounting for 75 per cent of the decline. Market analysts said there was no immediate fix for the supply squeeze, while Goldman Sachs analysts projected global refinery processing levels would return to seasonal norms in the second half of next year. As outages have dragged on, prices for major oil-derived products, including jet fuel, have significantly outpaced crude since March. Data from the International Air Transport Association showed the global average jet fuel price last week stood at US$156.85 per barrel, marking a 74.2 per cent year-on-year rise. Brent crude futures, by comparison, had climbed about 30 per cent year on year as of August 28. The Goldman Sachs analysts estimated that average diesel and jet fuel profit margins were still triple last year’s levels, while dated Brent was up “only” 34 per cent year on year. “China will soon enter its peak fuel consumption season, and Northern-Hemisphere winter will further boost diesel demand. Combined with supply shortfalls, oil-derived product prices are extremely likely to stay elevated,” warned Yan of Xinhu Futures. Still, industry analysts said the unusually high profit margins were not enough to spur large-scale global investment in new refineries. “Led by Europe, developed economies have long been unwilling to expand refinery throughput amid high costs and carbon-reduction constraints, not to mention the rapid advance of electric vehicles,” explained Ni of Orient Securities. Against this backdrop, some ambitious Chinese companies that expanded overseas in earlier years could be well placed to benefit. “Refining assets stand poised for a market re‑rating,” wrote Chen Kangdi, an analyst at Shanghai-based Guolian Minsheng Securities, in a mid-August research note. The first phase of the Brunei refining-petrochemical complex, in which Zhejiang-based private firm Hengyi Industries holds a 70 per cent stake, has 8 million tonnes per annum of crude distillation capacity. A second phase is getting under way this year. “Constrained by China’s fuel export quota regime, the Brunei facility can sell fuels directly to global markets. This creates considerable asset scarcity and the complex stands to keep benefiting from higher prices,” Chen added. PetroChina, which has interests in several overseas refineries, posted first‑half net profit of 103.9 billion yuan (US$15.48 billion), up 22 per cent year on year. Chokwai Lee, a director of equity research at US-based Morningstar Equity Research, said in a late-August report that these robust earnings reflected PetroChina’s “strengthened upstream integration” as well as solid trading returns in its marketing segment.