穆迪Q2收入增15%、EPS增31%，上调2026年EPS与回购指引

Earnings Call Insights: Moody’s (MCO) Q2 2026
“In late June, we welcomed Christina Kosmowski as CEO of Moody’s Analytics.” (President, CEO & Director Robert Fauber)
“Moody’s delivered a standout second quarter with strong performance across the board.” (President, CEO & Director Fauber) “At the enterprise level, we achieved 15% revenue growth… expanded adjusted operating margin by 440 basis points to 55.3% and we grew adjusted diluted EPS by 31% to $4.68.” (President, CEO & Director Fauber)
“In Moody’s Investor Service, transaction revenue grew 34%, and we rated more than $2 trillion of debt for the second consecutive quarter.” (President, CEO & Director Fauber) “MIS also delivered adjusted operating margin of 68.3%.” (President, CEO & Director Fauber)
“Moody’s Analytics also continued to perform very well. ARR reached approximately $3.7 billion… with trailing 12-month retention remaining strong at 95%.” (President, CEO & Director Fauber)
“This quarter, we announced our sunset time line for our on-prem modeling solutions and insurance, which means we plan for our remaining customers to migrate to our cloud-based intelligent risk platform over the next several years.” (President, CEO & Director Fauber)
“MA revenue increased 4% reported or 8% on an organic constant currency basis… Recurring revenue grew 7% as reported or 9% on an organic constant currency basis and now represents 99% of MA revenue.” (Senior VP & CFO Noemie Heuland) “Transactional revenue declined 72% year-over-year to about $10 million, consistent with the deliberate portfolio repositioning we’ve discussed previously.” (Senior VP & CFO Heuland)
“We’re raising select full year 2026 guidance metrics, including our rated issuance expectations and capital return guidance.” (President, CEO & Director Fauber) “By narrowing our adjusted diluted EPS range, we are increasing the midpoint of our range to $16.75.” (President, CEO & Director Fauber)
“On adjusted diluted EPS, we are raising the low end of the range by $0.10, bringing full year guidance to $16.50 to $17.” (Senior VP & CFO Heuland) “We’re raising our issuance outlook from low to mid-single-digit percent growth while maintaining our MIS revenue outlook.” (Senior VP & CFO Heuland)
Change from last quarter’s framing: “At the halfway point of the year, we’re sitting where our full year plan always expected us to be… A record June issuance pulled that activity forward.” (Senior VP & CFO Heuland)
“We achieved 15% revenue growth… expanded adjusted operating margin by 440 basis points to 55.3% and… grew adjusted diluted EPS… to $4.68.” (President, CEO & Director Fauber)
“Free cash flow was $688 million in the quarter, up 47% year-over-year.” (Senior VP & CFO Heuland) “We’re adjusting full year free cash flow guidance by about $100 million to $2.7 billion to $2.9 billion.” (Senior VP & CFO Heuland)
“We have executed approximately $2.2 billion in share repurchases, and we are raising our full year share repurchase guidance to be up to $3 billion in 2026.” (Senior VP & CFO Heuland)
“We are also expanding our restructuring program envelope by $100 million and extending this program through year-end 2027… expected to result in annualized savings of $300 million to $350 million.” (Senior VP & CFO Heuland)
Manav Patnaik, Barclays: asked why the second-half cadence in guidance “feels like it’s pretty conservative.” Senior VP & CFO Heuland: “A record June issuance pulled that activity forward… the increase in volume doesn’t translate on one-on-one into incremental revenue.” President, CEO & Director Fauber: “We’re right where we thought we were going to be for the year… so we’re holding guidance.”
Ashish Sabadra, RBC: asked for upside drivers and whether first-time mandates could add to results. President, CEO & Director Fauber: “If we see kind of a sustained pickup in M&A activity… that could add to the upside,” and highlighted spreads, refinancing, and seasonality; he also cited risks including “headline risk” and “extended disruption to global energy flows.”
Toni Kaplan, Morgan Stanley: asked about MCP adoption uplift and durability. President, CEO & Director Fauber: “We’ve got some very good traction… we’re seeing a real willingness to pay for this,” and pointed to “agentic assembly and delivery of our connected intelligence.”
Jeffrey Meuler, Baird: asked about multiyear “deep currents,” including private credit and infrastructure. President, CEO & Director Fauber: said “there are massive infrastructure financing needs,” and tied private credit growth to “retailization” and “greater transparency.”
Jeffrey Silber, BMO: asked why data-center-related business carries lower yields. President, CEO & Director Fauber: “When we see big frequent issuers doing big investment-grade bond deals… that tends to be revenue mix unfriendly,” while more complex structures “tends to be revenue mix friendly.”
Curtis Nagle, BofA: asked if MA’s 8% organic constant-currency growth is sustainable. President, CEO & Director Fauber: “I want to caution a little bit against extrapolating that acceleration… we continue to call for high single-digit ARR growth,” while citing lending-suite migration, IRP, KYC expansion, and OneView migration.
Surinder Thind, Jefferies: asked about Christina Kosmowski’s priorities and potential investment acceleration. President, CEO & Director Fauber: said she is focused on “simplifying our offerings,” “sharpening our go-to-market motions,” and “strengthening our data layer.”
Andrew Nicholas, William Blair: asked about lower-cost frontier AI models and token costs. Senior VP & CFO Heuland: “I would tend to view this as a tailwind… Cheaper tokens ultimately would expand usage more than they would compress price.” President, CEO & Director Fauber: “We aren’t just an AI wrapper… we have an intelligent system that is integral to financial markets.”
Analysts: slightly skeptical on guidance cadence and conservatism, with “it feels like it’s pretty conservative” (Manav Patnaik, Barclays) and multiple “puts and takes” follow-ups on issuance, mix, and durability.
Management: slightly positive and controlled, emphasizing execution and seasonality; Senior VP & CFO Heuland said Q2 was “us catching up to where we always expected to be,” while also repeatedly pointing to mix effects and second-half comps.
Versus last quarter, tone shifted from geopolitical/volatility watchfulness to confidence in execution and pull-forward; Q1 referenced a “volatile geopolitical backdrop” (President, CEO & Director Fauber), while Q2 closed with “Great quarter, constructive environment, good momentum.” (President, CEO & Director Fauber)
Leadership update moved from future to completed: Q1 said “Christina Kosmowski will become Moody’s Analytics CEO in June.” (President, CEO & Director Fauber) Q2 said “In late June, we welcomed Christina Kosmowski as CEO of Moody’s Analytics.” (President, CEO & Director Fauber)
Guidance posture evolved from “full year guidance remains unchanged” (Senior VP & CFO Heuland, Q1) to targeted raises: Q2 said “bringing full year guidance to $16.50 to $17,” and increasing buyback guidance “up to $3 billion in 2026.” (Senior VP & CFO Heuland)
Issuance commentary shifted from April uncertainty recovery assumptions (Q1: “issuance recovering through Q2 and Q3,” Senior VP & CFO Heuland) to pull-forward confirmation (Q2: “recovery came through in the second quarter instead,” Senior VP & CFO Heuland).
“Headline risk… can trigger some risk off windows.” (President, CEO & Director Fauber) “Any… disruption to global energy flows… may put more pressure on inflation expectations and potentially lead companies to defer M&A.” (President, CEO & Director Fauber)
“The trajectory may not be linear.” (Senior VP & CFO Heuland) Heuland also described issuance mix as “a bit less rich,” with more volume from areas “tend to carry lower average yields.” (Senior VP & CFO Heuland)
Management described Q2 as broad-based strength across ratings and analytics, highlighted a raised full-year adjusted diluted EPS range of $16.50 to $17, and increased capital return expectations including share repurchases up to $3 billion and free cash flow guidance of $2.7 billion to $2.9 billion, while repeatedly flagging that higher rated issuance can carry less favorable mix and that second-half assumptions reflect seasonality, tougher comparisons, and ongoing headline-risk sensitivity.