菲利普莫里斯二季度EPS超预期但维持全年内生增长指引

Earnings Call Insights: Philip Morris International (PM) Q2 2026
"I am pleased to report a very strong Q2 as we generated plus 8% organic growth in net revenue and plus 11% in operating income, driving plus 14% currency-neutral progression in adjusted diluted earnings per share to $2.20" (Group Chief Financial Officer Emmanuel Babeau).
"Supported by a rich product pipeline and improving regulatory clarity, we believe it is the right moment to accelerate U.S. investment in the second half of the year to support ZYN's brand equity and portfolio expansion and to prepare for the future launch of IQOS ILUMA" (Group Chief Financial Officer Babeau).
"This is my last earnings call as Group CFO of PMI" and "I leave you in the very talented hands of my successor, Massimo Andolina, who will transition from his current role as Regional President for Europe in August" (Group Chief Financial Officer Babeau).
"I am very much looking forward to serving as the Group CFO of Philip Morris International and continuing our relentless focus on delivering superior shareholder returns over the long term" (President of Europe Region Massimo Andolina).
"For 2026, we continue to target organic net revenue growth of plus 5% to plus 7%, organic operating income growth of plus 7% to plus 9% and currency-neutral adjusted diluted EPS growth of plus 7.5% to plus 9.5%" (Group Chief Financial Officer Babeau).
"In dollar terms, we now forecast a currency tailwind of around $0.15 at prevailing rates, translating into an adjusted diluted EPS range of $8.26 to $8.41" (Group Chief Financial Officer Babeau).
"For Q3, specifically... We target adjusted diluted EPS of $2.20 to $2.25, including an unfavorable currency impact of $0.08 at prevailing exchange rate" (Group Chief Financial Officer Babeau).
Compared with the prior quarter’s outlook, management kept the currency-neutral growth framework unchanged, while the reported EPS range moved from "$8.36 to $8.51" in Q1 to "$8.26 to $8.41" in Q2 (Group Chief Financial Officer Babeau).
Adjusted diluted EPS of $2.20 vs. $2.05 (analysts’ estimate); quarterly net revenues "over $11 billion" vs. $10,631,193,840 (analysts’ estimate) (Group Chief Financial Officer Babeau; analystsEstimates).
"Organic net revenues grew plus 7.6% or more than 10% in dollar terms to reach over $11 billion in quarterly net revenues for the first time" and "adjusted operating income grew... to reach $4.8 billion" (Group Chief Financial Officer Babeau).
"Adjusted diluted earnings per share grew by an impressive plus 15% to reach $2.20. This includes a $0.03 favorable currency impact" (Group Chief Financial Officer Babeau).
"We now expect higher SG&A costs in the second half than previously anticipated as we made the strategic decision to step up our U.S. growth investments" and "we delivered over $300 million of gross cost savings across COGS and SG&A in H1" (Group Chief Financial Officer Babeau).
Bonnie Herzog, Goldman Sachs: asked why full-year underlying growth guidance was maintained after "2 quarters of better-than-expected performance" and about the size/shape of U.S. ZYN spend; Group Chief Financial Officer Babeau said "the reason why today we are not revising the guidance is indeed the fact" PMI plans to "accelerate" in the U.S. with "a much broader portfolio of variants" and a new campaign, adding "we're going to go 360" across levers including "a lot of marketing" and "activity at the point of sales."
Matthew Smith, Stifel: pressed on Japan category/IQOS progression and H2 phasing around October excise; Group Chief Financial Officer Babeau said Japan was "in line with our expectations," that PMI had "gone through the worst" with the first increase, and "we expect further category volatility in H2, notably around the excise change in October."
Eric Serotta, Morgan Stanley: asked about Japan competitive promotions and October pricing applications; Group Chief Financial Officer Babeau said "everybody is trying to really work on absorbing this significant excise duty" and declined specifics: "this is not public yet. So I'm not going to comment on what we've been doing or not doing."
Mirza Faham Baig, UBS: asked if "optimizing ZYN's price premium positioning" could involve the flagship and whether IQOS pricing becomes a bigger lever; Group Chief Financial Officer Babeau reiterated "ZYN is and will remain the premium leader" and for IQOS said "the name of the game today is more to optimize volume" while "preparing the ground" for pricing power later.
Pallav Mittal, Barclays: asked what supports an acceleration of Europe IQOS after flavor bans and why group revenue guidance was unchanged despite stronger cigarette trends; President Andolina said after initial disruption "then we reestablished the growth trajectory" and pointed to tiering ("DELIA"), "LEVIA" and "multi-category" momentum; Group Chief Financial Officer Babeau added shipments were "a bit above IMS" in H1 and expected "shipment and IMS to be broadly aligned" for the year.
Gerald Pascarelli, Needham: asked if combustible momentum continued into July and if guidance was conservative; Group Chief Financial Officer Babeau said "you will allow me not to start commenting the Q3 numbers in July" and cited strength in markets with "no smoke-free product presence," while cautioning "it doesn't mean that the rest of the year is going to be at the same level."
Analysts were slightly negative to pressing on guidance conservatism and U.S./Japan uncertainty, including "you did maintain your full year underlying growth guidance" (Bonnie Herzog, Goldman Sachs) and repeated Japan competitive/pricing probes.
Management tone was confident in prepared remarks ("we approach the remainder of 2026 with confidence") and more guarded in Q&A on competitively sensitive topics ("I'm not going, of course, to comment in advance" on U.S. pricing; "I'm not going to comment" on Japan October applications) (Group Chief Financial Officer Babeau).
Versus Q1, the Q2 discussion shifted from regulatory timing hopes (Q1: "optimistic" on launching ZYN Ultra "in the coming months") to execution and spend decisions after authorization, with Q2 emphasizing "the Modified Risk Tobacco Product authorization of 20 SKUs" and a planned investment step-up (Group Chief Financial Officer Babeau).
Management change became explicit in Q2 with "Massimo Andolina... will succeed Emmanuel as Group CFO in August," a topic absent from Q1 (James Bushnell; Group Chief Financial Officer Babeau).
U.S. narrative moved from Q1’s inventory normalization and pipeline preparation to Q2’s portfolio expansion and marketing activation, including "ZYN ULTRA" launches and a planned campaign "When it Clicks" (Group Chief Financial Officer Babeau).
Japan tone evolved from Q1 "too early to comment" after April excise to Q2 confirming expected patterns and flagging further "volatility" into the October step (Group Chief Financial Officer Babeau).
"We expect further category volatility in H2" in Japan around October excise, after pantry-loading dynamics affected Q1/Q2 comparisons (Group Chief Financial Officer Babeau).
U.S. execution risk was tied to category competition and spending: ZYN offtake was described as "broadly stable to slightly growing" while PMI planned to "accelerate U.S. investment" and noted a Q3 comparison impacted by "around 250 million pouches" from a prior-year promotion (Group Chief Financial Officer Babeau).
Regulation and policy remained a gating factor for expansion pacing, with IQOS ILUMA described as "subject to FDA action" (Group Chief Financial Officer Babeau).
PMI management described Q2 as a "very strong" quarter driven by international smoke-free growth and an above-expectation combustible performance, while choosing to keep the underlying full-year growth framework intact as it reallocates capacity toward a stepped-up U.S. investment plan around ZYN’s expanded portfolio and newly authorized reduced-risk marketing claims, alongside preparations for an eventual IQOS ILUMA launch, and with additional Japan excise-driven volatility expected in the second half.