Southern Copper称Tia Maria完成42%，2029年铜产量目标106万吨

Earnings Call Insights: Southern Copper (SCCO) Q2 2026
Management View
- "Southern Copper delivered another exceptional quarter, registering record-breaking results in sales, adjusted EBITDA and net income" (VP of Finance, Treasurer & CFO Raul Jacob).
- "Based on current supply and demand dynamics, we estimate a slight copper market deficit for 2026" and "the sum of these inventories stood at 1,123,000 tons as of yesterday, July 21" which "can currently cover approximately 15 days of global demand" (VP of Finance, Treasurer & CFO Jacob).
- "For 2026, we expect to produce 917,000 tons of copper, an increase of about 1% over our initial plan" (VP of Finance, Treasurer & CFO Jacob).
- "This year, on June 24, the company issued $1.25 billion in a 10-year fixed rate senior unsecured notes" due "in 2036" with "an annual interest rate of 5.35%" and "proceeds will be used exclusively by Southern Peru Copper Corporation... to develop the Tia Maria project" (VP of Finance, Treasurer & CFO Jacob).
- "At the close of June, the Tia Maria project had reached 42% completion" and "as of June of this year, June 30, the company has committed $1,101 million... of which $693 million has already been invested" (VP of Finance, Treasurer & CFO Jacob).
- "On July 16 of this year, Southern Copper Corporation announced a quarterly cash dividend of $1.10 per share... and a stock dividend of 0.012 shares" and "the total estimated dividend payment is $3.23 per share" (VP of Finance, Treasurer & CFO Jacob).
Outlook
- "For 2026, we expect to produce 917,000 tons of copper"; "in 2026, we expect to produce 27,900 tons of molybdenum"; "in 2026, we expect to comply with our plan to produce 24 million ounces of silver"; and "for this year 2026, we expect to produce 163,900 tons of zinc" (VP of Finance, Treasurer & CFO Jacob).
- "For next year, for copper, we will -- we are expecting to produce more or less the same that we have this year" and "hopefully in the later part of 2027" the company expects "some help from Tia Maria's tonnage" (VP of Finance, Treasurer & CFO Jacob).
- "For 2028 and on, we expect Tia Maria to fill in and increase our production level to about 970,000 tons" and "in 2029, our copper production should be -- should be over 1 million tons, 1,060,000 tons" (VP of Finance, Treasurer & CFO Jacob).
Financial Results
- "For the second quarter of 2026, sales were $4.3 billion" and "the second quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA hit a record high of $2,856 million" with "the adjusted EBITDA margin... at 67%" (VP of Finance, Treasurer & CFO Jacob).
- "Operating cash cost per pound of copper before by-product credits was $2.29 per pound" and "operating cash cost, including the benefit of by-product credits, was $0.05 per pound" (VP of Finance, Treasurer & CFO Jacob).
- "The second quarter of 2026 net income hit a record high of $1,670 million" and "cash flow from operating activities in the 6 months of this year was $3,683 million" (VP of Finance, Treasurer & CFO Jacob).
- "In the second quarter of this year, we spent $423 million on capital investments" and "in the first half of the year, we spent $865 million on capital investments" (VP of Finance, Treasurer & CFO Jacob).
Q&A
- Richard Garchitorena, Barclays Bank PLC, Research Division: "copper production... was down 3.5% year-over-year" and asked about grades at Toquepala and Cuajone; VP of Finance, Treasurer & CFO Jacob replied, "now we're expecting for this year 917,000 tons of copper" and said the lower production vs. last year was "ore grades, particularly at the Cuajone mine," while Mexico increases "has allowed us to maintain our production levels in Mexico."
- Richard Garchitorena, Barclays Bank PLC, Research Division: asked whether funding would be expected to finance Peru projects; VP of Finance, Treasurer & CFO Jacob said, "the latest bond issue... for $1.25 billion was for -- mainly for financing the Tia Maria project" and added, "Generally speaking, the company considers use of some debt at a certain point in the developing of the projects."
- Emerson Vieira, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Research Division: asked if desalination equipment ordering could delay Tia Maria and asked about El Pilar water license; VP of Finance, Treasurer & CFO Jacob answered, "We already have the... water license renewed" and on Tia Maria, "for now, we don't expect a delay in the project."
- Emerson Vieira, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Research Division: asked whether sales vs. production would reverse; VP of Finance, Treasurer & CFO Jacob said, "we have been increasing a little bit our material in process..." and "I expect that metal to show up and be available for sales... in the second half of this year."
- Rafael Barcellos, Banco Bradesco BBI S.A., Research Division: asked about Peru politics, Tia Maria execution risks, Los Chancas illegal mining, and 2027/2028 production; VP of Finance, Treasurer & CFO Jacob said the incoming administration priorities include "the fight to illegal mining" and added, "For 2028 and on, we expect Tia Maria to fill in and increase our production level to about 970,000 tons" and "in 2029... 1,060,000 tons."
- Tingshuai Feng, China International Capital Corporation Limited: asked about proposed distribution of mining canon; VP of Finance, Treasurer & CFO Jacob responded, "we will not comment on this until we see specifically what's the proposal."
- Tingshuai Feng, China International Capital Corporation Limited: asked about Tia Maria cash cost and by-product credits; VP of Finance, Treasurer & CFO Jacob answered, "Tia Maria has no by-products" and "the cash cost estimate... it's $1.16."
- John Tumazos, John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC: pressed on why El Pilar took "11 years"; VP of Finance, Treasurer & CFO Jacob said there was "an in-depth technical review" and "we have to renew some of the permits." Tumazos asked about Mexico open-pit policy impact; Jacob said, "For us, it has no impact since we already have our concessions."
Sentiment Analysis
- Slightly negative analyst tone, focused on operational shortfalls and execution/permitting risk, including "copper production... was down 3.5%" (Richard Garchitorena, Barclays) and "Please explain the delays" (John Tumazos).
- Neutral-to-slightly positive management tone in responses, emphasizing plans and lack of delays, including "for now, we don't expect a delay in the project" and "we already have the... water license renewed" (VP of Finance, Treasurer & CFO Jacob).
- The previous-quarter transcript was not provided, so tone changes versus the prior call were not available from the supplied materials.
Quarter-over-Quarter Comparison
- The previous-quarter transcript was not available in the provided data, so the company’s changes in guidance language, analyst focus, and tone versus last quarter could not be extracted from the transcripts.
Risks and Concerns
- "Our quarterly result reflects a 12% drop in production in Peru, mainly attributable to lower ore grades and recoveries at both Toquepala and Cuajone" (VP of Finance, Treasurer & CFO Jacob).
- "The presence of illegal miners within the project area continues" at Los Chancas and "this has hindered the project's progress" (VP of Finance, Treasurer & CFO Jacob).
- On policy uncertainty in Peru, management said, "we have to see what the elected President, Fujimori, proposes... July 28" and added on the mining canon question, "we will not comment on this until we see specifically what's the proposal" (VP of Finance, Treasurer & CFO Jacob).
Final Takeaway
Southern Copper’s management framed Q2 2026 as a record quarter in sales, adjusted EBITDA, and net income, while reiterating a higher 2026 copper production expectation of 917,000 tons despite Peru grade/recovery pressure. The call emphasized project execution and funding: a $1.25 billion 2036 bond earmarked for Tia Maria, which management reported at 42% completion, and a defined timeline for El Pilar with early works in September 2026 and expected production in the second half of 2029. Management also outlined longer-dated copper output targets of about 970,000 tons in 2028 and 1,060,000 tons in 2029, while acknowledging execution and security risks, including ongoing illegal mining at Los Chancas and policy details pending Peru’s new administration.
Read the full Earnings Call Transcript