Seeking AlphaCodex · 实盘不做把握 7/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 21:59:49时区推断·⟳ 抓取 22:06:28·⚡ 决策 07-23 22:08:07 +1m39s·96.2 天前
Jefferies 首评 StoneCo 与 PagSeguro 为持有，认为估值不贵但缺乏明显上行空间
Jefferies 对 StoneCo（STNE.US）和 PagSeguro（PAGS.US）均给出 Hold 评级，目标价分别为 12.60 美元和 10.40 美元，属于中性覆盖启动而非上调或下调催化。
📄 原文Seeking Alpha↗ 原文
StoneCo, PagSeguro Digital initiated with a Hold rating at Jefferies
Jefferies initiated coverage of Latin American companies StoneCo (STNE) and PagSeguro Digital (PAGS) with a Hold rating…
不做 StoneCo（STNE.US）
Jefferies 仅启动 Hold 覆盖，目标价相对现价没有足够上行，且观点为估值便宜但增长有限；不构成同向正期望交易。
不做 PagSeguro Digital（PAGS.US）
Jefferies 仅启动 Hold 覆盖，虽然相对更偏好 PagBank，但不是明确买入催化；盘初小跌也不足以形成可执行做空红线。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-07-23 · 扩散 medium · price-in 风险 medium ↗
关键理由
- Jefferies 对 StoneCo（STNE.US）和 PagSeguro（PAGS.US）均给出 Hold 评级，目标价分别为 12.60 美元和 10.40 美元，属于中性覆盖启动而非上调或下调催化。
- 研报同时提到估值约 6 倍 2027 年 P/E、未来三到四年可能通过分红回购返还 60%–70% 市值，但核心判断是缺乏信贷业务驱动下的实质上行。
- 正文披露事件发生后两股盘初小幅下跌，更多是中性偏谨慎卖方观点，不构成强方向交易。
主要风险
- 若后续 Jefferies 或其他大行进一步下调盈利预测或评级，才可能形成更明确的负面催化。
- 巴西金融科技股对利率、信贷周期和本地竞争敏感，本条研报不足以单独改变短线基本面预期。
原文全文
展开原文 · 1,739 字
Jefferies initiated coverage of Latin American companies StoneCo (STNE) and PagSeguro Digital (PAGS) with a Hold rating and price targets of $12.60 and $10.40, respectively.
The coverage expands Jefferies' LatAm coverage to 145 companies (~80% of MSCI) and financials to 20 names.
STNE shares were -1.63% to $11.18 after the market open on Thursday, while PAGS was 1.45% lower to $9.53.
"We break down the economics of the businesses by segment, showing improved funding costs help offset weaker payments, but not enough to drive material upside without credit," said analyst Diego Sarmento Pereira.
"Despite trading on ~6x 2027 P/E, we see limited earnings growth, with returns largely driven by dividends and buybacks," said the analyst in a research note.
Despite the challenging outlook, both companies could return ~60%–70% of their market capitalization through dividends and buybacks over the next three to four years, according to Jefferies.
"Additionally, current valuation remains undemanding: we see STNE and PAGS trading at ~6x 2027 P/E, in line with global legacy merchant acquirers, but at a discount to Brazilian financials (~8x) and global fintech peers (~14x)," said Pereira.
"On a relative basis, we believe PagBank is slightly better positioned than Stone, reflecting its lower reliance on payments (~55% vs. ~80% for Stone)," said the research note.
Jefferies sees more compelling opportunities elsewhere in Brazilian financials, particularly in Nu Holdings (NU), Banco do Brasil (BDORY), and XP (XP).
Notably, StoneCo is rated as Sell by Seeking Alpha's Quant Rating system and Buy by SA authors and the Wall Street analysts.
PagSeguro is seen as Hold by Quant, Buy by sell-side analysts, and Strong Buy by SA authors.
The coverage expands Jefferies' LatAm coverage to 145 companies (~80% of MSCI) and financials to 20 names.
STNE shares were -1.63% to $11.18 after the market open on Thursday, while PAGS was 1.45% lower to $9.53.
"We break down the economics of the businesses by segment, showing improved funding costs help offset weaker payments, but not enough to drive material upside without credit," said analyst Diego Sarmento Pereira.
"Despite trading on ~6x 2027 P/E, we see limited earnings growth, with returns largely driven by dividends and buybacks," said the analyst in a research note.
Despite the challenging outlook, both companies could return ~60%–70% of their market capitalization through dividends and buybacks over the next three to four years, according to Jefferies.
"Additionally, current valuation remains undemanding: we see STNE and PAGS trading at ~6x 2027 P/E, in line with global legacy merchant acquirers, but at a discount to Brazilian financials (~8x) and global fintech peers (~14x)," said Pereira.
"On a relative basis, we believe PagBank is slightly better positioned than Stone, reflecting its lower reliance on payments (~55% vs. ~80% for Stone)," said the research note.
Jefferies sees more compelling opportunities elsewhere in Brazilian financials, particularly in Nu Holdings (NU), Banco do Brasil (BDORY), and XP (XP).
Notably, StoneCo is rated as Sell by Seeking Alpha's Quant Rating system and Buy by SA authors and the Wall Street analysts.
PagSeguro is seen as Hold by Quant, Buy by sell-side analysts, and Strong Buy by SA authors.
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