BNP称United Rentals和Waste Connections业绩超预期获看好，Rollins连续疲弱季度面临估值重估压力

BNP Paribas said investors are likely to reward United Rentals (URI) and Waste Connections (WCN) after both companies delivered stronger-than-expected quarterly results and raised their full-year outlooks, while Rollins (ROL) faces fresh questions after another disappointing quarter.
Senior equity analyst Seth Weber maintained a bullish stance on United Rentals (URI), calling the equipment rental company one of the firm's "top ideas" after it beat Wall Street expectations on revenue, earnings and profitability while lifting its 2026 guidance.
"We expect URI shares to rise on the upside report, raised outlook and commentary around healthy end markets," Weber wrote.
The analyst highlighted accelerating fleet productivity, which increased 3.4% from a year earlier, topping expectations and improving from the first quarter. Rental gross margins also exceeded forecasts, while rental revenue climbed nearly 13% as both the general rental and specialty businesses expanded.
United Rentals (URI) also increased its full-year revenue outlook to $17.5 billion to $17.8 billion and raised its adjusted EBITDA forecast to as much as $8.13 billion, reflecting continued strength in non-residential construction activity.
Weber also struck an optimistic tone on Waste Connections (WCN) after the waste management company reported second-quarter revenue, adjusted EBITDA and earnings per share above consensus estimates and increased its revenue and EBITDA guidance for the year.
The analyst said the results demonstrated that the company's long-term strategy remains intact, pointing to strong pricing, better-than-expected acquisition activity and solid free cash flow generation.
"We expect WCN shares to be up on the 2Q beat, M&A commentary, and raised FY outlook," Weber said.
He noted that acquisitions contributed more revenue than expected during the quarter and that pricing remained above the high end of the company's full-year target despite softer collection volumes.
The outlook was considerably less favorable for Rollins (ROL), where Weber said a third consecutive quarter of organic revenue growth below the company's long-term target is likely to pressure the shares.
Rollins (ROL) missed analyst estimates for both revenue and adjusted earnings as residential pest control demand weakened, particularly among brands that depend on consumers initiating service requests. Lower lead generation and operating costs during the peak season also weighed on margins.
"We expect a negative reaction to the report," Weber wrote.
Although Weber said the pest control industry remains attractive and praised Rollins' strong balance sheet and cash generation, he warned that investors are likely to reassess the premium valuation after another quarter of slowing organic growth and weak incremental margins.
Looking ahead, he said investors will focus on management's plans to improve execution, stabilize residential demand, restore profitability and integrate recent acquisitions.
Separately, Weber said new industry shipment data offered a modestly encouraging signal for QXO (QXO), showing U.S. residential roofing shingle shipments rose 0.2% in the second quarter, ending five consecutive quarters of year-over-year declines.
While the construction products market continues to face headwinds, Weber expects revenue trends to improve modestly during the second half of 2026 as comparisons become easier. He also said QXO's recently completed acquisition of TopBuild broadens its exposure beyond roofing and supports its long-term strategy of consolidating the building products distribution industry.
BNP Paribas maintained its Outperform rating on QXO (QXO), citing confidence in the company's long-term goal of growing to $50 billion in revenue and $7.5 billion in EBITDA through a combination of organic growth and acquisitions.