克利夫兰-克里夫斯二季度电话会确认三季度调整后EBITDA约5.75亿美元并称四季度继续改善

Earnings Call Insights: Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) Q2 2026
Management view
- "After several quarters of talking about the future earnings power of this company, we can finally point to tangible evidence that the progression we have been forecasting is now reality," said Chairman, President & CEO Lourenco Goncalves. "During the second quarter, we returned to positive free cash flow and tripled our adjusted EBITDA from the first quarter."
- "That will be more visible in Q3, in which we are expecting to more than double our Q2 EBITDA," said Chairman, President & CEO Goncalves, adding, "With our third quarter adjusted EBITDA guidance of $575 million, we have a situation where higher prices, lower costs and higher shipping volumes will all be converging at once."
- "One important item to mention today, we have officially kicked off negotiations with the United Steel Workers Union to renew our collective bargain agreement," said Chairman, President & CEO Goncalves. "And I'm pleased to say that the process is off to a constructive and productive start."
- "Before turning it over, I would like to recognize Celso's appointment to our Board of Directors as President and CFO that was announced this morning," said Chairman, President & CEO Goncalves. "It also marks the early stages of a transition in leadership. I'm not going anywhere anytime soon."
- "Our adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter was $286 million, our best quarter in 2 years," said Executive VP & CFO Celso Goncalves. "Second quarter shipments were just over 4 million tons, down sequentially from the previous quarter due to the maintenance outages we underwent during the quarter."
- "Our average selling price increased by $76 per ton," said Executive VP & CFO Goncalves. "Based on this, we expect our average price to increase another $55 per ton in Q3."
Outlook
- "We expect adjusted EBITDA of approximately $575 million in the third quarter, which would be our strongest quarter in 3 years," said Executive VP & CFO Goncalves. "With where the curve for HRC stands today, we would expect even further improvement on that figure in the fourth quarter, even with the typical seasonal slowdown we usually see around the holidays."
- "We'll have an opportunity in the coming months to reset a large portion of our fixed price contracts substantially higher," said Executive VP & CFO Goncalves. "[W]e estimate [this] will represent a $500 million EBITDA improvement year-over-year."
- Compared with last quarter’s framing that Q2 would be the best quarter in nearly two years and Q3 would show the earnings power more fully, management’s guidance language shifted to explicit quarterly targets and a stronger conviction statement. "Cleveland-Cliffs is entering the strongest earnings environment that we have seen in years," said Executive VP & CFO Goncalves.
Financial results
- "Our adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter was $286 million," said Executive VP & CFO Goncalves, and "after 2 years of negative free cash flow, we finally flipped back to positive in the second quarter."
- "Second quarter shipments were just over 4 million tons," said Executive VP & CFO Goncalves, and "we expect to see steel shipment volumes above 4.3 million tons in the third quarter as the order book remains strong and backlogs are extended."
- "As for unit costs, as previously guided, the inventory lag effect from last quarter and our maintenance outages pushed costs up quarter-over-quarter," said Executive VP & CFO Goncalves. "But with that behind us, we should see a $10 per ton reduction in costs into Q3."
- "[W]e are now under contract on all of our major property sales with earnest money in our control in all cases," said Executive VP & CFO Goncalves. "The bulk of the $400 million proceeds from our property sales are expected to come in the second half of this year."
Q&A
- Carlos de Alba, Morgan Stanley: asked about timing and scope of resetting non-auto fixed-price contracts and expectations for auto contract resets; Chairman, President & CEO Goncalves responded, "it's a process that starts in earnest in the second half of the of this year," and on auto pricing, "we are going to reset the numbers higher."
- Carlos de Alba, Morgan Stanley: asked about Q4 cost direction; Chairman, President & CEO Goncalves answered, "Yes, we expect further improvements," citing "more optimized schedules at the mills, thanks to our work with Palantir."
- Samuel McKinney, KeyBanc: asked how much of the Q3 shipment uplift is automotive-driven; Chairman, President & CEO Goncalves said, "I would say half." McKinney also pressed on payables’ impact on free cash flow; Executive VP & CFO Goncalves said, "The payables were largely driven by things like raw materials going up, additional maintenance work and things like that."
- Nicklaus Cash, Goldman Sachs: asked for Stelco pricing color and the $500 million uplift bridge; Chairman, President & CEO Goncalves said, "the pricing gap has closed," but "we haven't seen yet the same type of impact with the galvanized steel." He added, "if I need to make any changes in the Canadian footprint, it will be all affecting galvanized and producing more hot rolled."
- Nick Giles, B. Riley: asked about capacity restarts and Dearborn; Chairman, President & CEO Goncalves said restarting hinges on customers’ commitment, adding, "I need the conviction" and "we're not going to go until they are ready to go." Giles also asked about debt paydown; Executive VP & CFO Goncalves said, "debt paydown is going to be our #1 capital allocation priority," and "we don't have anything maturing until 2029."
- Richard Garchitorena, Barclays: asked what drives the expectation that Q4 outperforms Q3 despite seasonality; Chairman, President & CEO Goncalves emphasized contracting visibility, saying, "we have a good visibility into volumes" and "we already baked in" holiday shipment reductions.
Sentiment analysis
- Analysts’ tone was neutral to slightly skeptical, concentrating on contract reset mechanics, free-cash-flow quality, Canada/Stelco profitability, and the durability of Q4 improvement; questions repeatedly pressed for bridges and timing (e.g., "what's driving the incremental improvement" from Barclays).
- Management’s tone was positive and confident in prepared remarks and remained forceful in Q&A, with repeated conviction language such as "we have a good visibility" and "we are going to reset the numbers higher," while also signaling discipline on transactions: "we're not desperate to do anything," said Executive VP & CFO Goncalves.
- Versus last quarter’s emphasis on one-timers and normalization, management’s tone shifted toward higher certainty and explicit targets, including "we are expecting to more than double our Q2 EBITDA" and "we expect adjusted EBITDA of approximately $575 million in the third quarter."
Quarter-over-quarter comparison
- Guidance posture tightened from Q1’s directional setup ("Q2 should be our best quarter in nearly 2 years" and "Q3 should be much better than Q2," said Executive VP & CFO Goncalves last quarter) to Q2’s explicit quarterly adjusted EBITDA guide for Q3 and stated expectation for Q4 improvement.
- Strategic emphasis expanded from Q1’s operational normalization, outages, and AI-partner announcement timing to Q2’s broader stance on valuation and deal pressure, with Executive VP & CFO Goncalves saying counterparties assumed Cliffs "was under pressure to transact" and that offers "have fallen short of our value threshold."
- Analyst focus stayed consistent on contracts, costs, and cash generation, but Q2 added more probing on Stelco’s pricing mix and the conditions for restarting capacity.
Risks and concerns
- Canada exposure remained a named risk: "Without further measures to protect fair trade in Canada, the future competitiveness of our galvanizing lines in Hamilton is at risk," said Chairman, President & CEO Goncalves.
- Transaction uncertainty was framed as optionality and discipline: "discussions still remain friendly and ongoing" with POSCO, but "valuation and structure are important," said Executive VP & CFO Goncalves.
- Labor negotiations were highlighted as underway, with management stating, "we are confident that we can reach an agreement," said Chairman, President & CEO Goncalves.
Final takeaway
Management described a shift from recovery setup to visible acceleration, anchored by Q2’s $286 million adjusted EBITDA, a return to positive free cash flow, and Q3 adjusted EBITDA guidance of approximately $575 million. Executives tied the step-up to pricing realization, higher volumes, and cost reductions, while emphasizing balance-sheet deleveraging as the top priority and signaling transaction discipline on potential asset or strategic deals, alongside ongoing labor negotiations and continued scrutiny of Canadian trade protections affecting Stelco’s finishing operations.
Read the full Earnings Call Transcript