Ryder二季度电话会确认小幅上调2026年可比EPS下限，但增量主要来自二手车销售预期改善

Earnings Call Insights: Ryder System, Inc. (R) Q2 2026
"The Ryder team delivered our seventh consecutive quarter of comparable EPS growth." (CEO & Director John Diez) "Solid results were primarily driven by consistent execution on our strategic initiatives." (CEO & Director Diez) "Improving market conditions in used vehicle sales also contributed to our higher results." (CEO & Director Diez)
"In RyderShare and RyderGyde, we're embedding Agentic AI in order to enhance capabilities and drive the evolution of these proprietary platforms." (CEO & Director Diez) "We're also leveraging AI across the company, including FMS Customer Service and Roadside Assistance." (CEO & Director Diez) "Additionally, we continue to deploy automation and robotics in our warehouses to drive operating efficiencies." (CEO & Director Diez)
"Over 90% of our revenue is generated by long-term contracts." (CEO & Director Diez) "Contractual sales activity was strong across all three segments, reflecting customer confidence." (CEO & Director Diez) "That said, market conditions remain below normalized levels, and geopolitical and macroeconomic factors continue to influence the pace and durability of the recovery." (CEO & Director Diez)
"Total company operating revenue of $2.7 billion in the second quarter increased 3% from prior year." (CFO, EVP & Principal Accounting Officer Cristina Gallo-Aquino) "Comparable earnings per share from continuing operations were $3.73 in the second quarter, up 12% from prior year." (CFO Gallo-Aquino) "Free cash flow increased to $684 million from $461 million in the prior year, reflecting reduced capital expenditures." (CFO Gallo-Aquino)
"We've raised our full year 2026 comparable EPS forecast by increasing the low end of the range to $14.40 from $14.05 while maintaining the high end at $14.80." (CEO & Director Diez) "The increase to our forecast largely reflects an improved outlook and reduced downside related to used vehicle sales, with gains now expected to be approximately $40 million for the full year, up $10 million from our prior forecast." (CEO & Director Diez)
"Our third quarter comparable EPS forecast range is $4 to $4.20, above prior year of $3.57." (CEO & Director Diez) "Our free cash flow forecast of $700 million to $800 million is unchanged." (CEO & Director Diez) "Our 2026 return on equity forecast is revised to 18% from a range of 17% to 18%." (CEO & Director Diez)
"We now expect to realize approximately $20 million of upturn benefits in 2026, primarily from higher used vehicle sales results, up from $10 million in our prior forecast." (CEO & Director Diez) "By the next cycle peak, we estimate this potential benefit could be $250 million." (CEO & Director Diez)
"Total company operating revenue of $2.7 billion in the second quarter increased 3% from prior year." (CFO Gallo-Aquino) "Comparable earnings per share from continuing operations were $3.73 in the second quarter, up 12% from prior year." (CFO Gallo-Aquino) "Return on equity, our primary financial metric, was 17%, in line with the prior year." (CFO Gallo-Aquino)
"Earnings before taxes were $150 million, up 20% versus prior year." (CFO Gallo-Aquino) "In rental, utilization returned to our targeted level of 75% on a 15% smaller average fleet." (CFO Gallo-Aquino) "During the quarter, we sold 5,100 used vehicles up 500 units sequentially and down 1,100 units versus prior year." (CFO Gallo-Aquino)
"In Supply Chain, operating revenue increased 7%, driven by new business, partially offset by lost business in automotive." (CFO Gallo-Aquino) "Earnings before taxes decreased 7% from prior year due to lower automotive results and to a lesser extent, productivity of new business ramping up." (CFO Gallo-Aquino)
"In Dedicated, operating revenue decreased 3% due to lower fleet count, partially offset by higher pricing." (CFO Gallo-Aquino) "Earnings before taxes were below prior year, reflecting lower operating revenue and adverse development of prior year insurance claims." (CFO Gallo-Aquino)
Bascome Majors, Stephens Inc., Research Division: Asked whether Amazon is approaching the Supply Chain market differently and whether Ryder is seeing competitive pressure. CEO & Director Diez: "we haven't seen any sort of impact" and "the Supply Chain pipeline continues to be strong." (CEO & Director Diez) President of Global Supply Chain Solutions & Dedicated Transportation Solutions John Sensing: "I have not seen us go up against them yet in any RFQs" and "our solutions are highly customized." (President Sensing)
Jordan Alliger, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Research Division: Asked about Dedicated renewals/pipeline and when Supply Chain productivity improves as new business ramps. CEO & Director Diez: "Our pipelines are at record levels for us right now" and "some of these projects that we had expected to launch later in the year are also going to be extended into 2027." (CEO & Director Diez) President Sensing: "Once these volumes bounce back, I think we'll be in pretty decent shape." (President Sensing)
Robert Salmon, Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division: Asked why FMS active units and ending units diverged and whether rental utilization targets imply a new normalized demand level. CEO & Director Diez: "our sales cycles typically take 3 to 6 months" and "as we exit the year, that should continue to turn positive for us." (CEO & Director Diez) President of Global Fleet Management Solutions Tom Havens: "we've seen two straight consecutive quarters of positive net sales" and "we certainly expect that fleet to grow near the end of the year and into 2027." (President Havens)
Nancy Hipp, Morgan Stanley, Research Division: Asked what would trigger significantly sizing the rental fleet up and how EPA changes could affect buying patterns; also asked about upside to used vehicle outlook. CEO & Director Diez: "when we see an acceleration from kind of the mid-single digits, at that point, then we could feel confident in lifting that guide further" and "we're still waiting" for rental acceleration. (CEO & Director Diez)
Brandon Oglenski, Barclays Bank PLC, Research Division: Asked how Ryder balances growth CapEx versus acquisitions and asked about Supply Chain pipeline. CFO Gallo-Aquino: "our priorities remain on profitable growth" and "We estimate that of the $4.5 billion over this 3-year period, maybe half of that is growth related and the other half is for acquisition and repurchase related activity." (CFO Gallo-Aquino) President Sensing: "the pipeline remains healthy" and "retail sales up 24%." (President Sensing)
"What have you heard from your salespeople?" and "what's the timing of it or sequencing?" (Jordan Alliger, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Research Division) reflected a neutral-to-slightly negative tone focused on competitive risk and margin timing; "how much visibility do you have into your capital plans" (Harrison Bauer, Susquehanna) and questions on retail/wholesale mix and utilization trends were similarly detail-seeking and cautious.
"We're confident our Transform model provides a solid foundation for Ryder to meaningfully benefit from the cycle upturn." (CEO & Director Diez) Management’s tone was slightly positive in prepared remarks, while Q&A included more conditional language on rental and macro uncertainty, including "we're still waiting" on rental acceleration and "we'll probably have more clarity in Q3" on OEM pricing related to EPA and other factors. (CEO & Director Diez)
Versus last quarter, management language shifted toward reduced downside in used vehicles ("reduced downside related to used vehicle sales") and a larger 2026 upturn benefit ("approximately $20 million" vs. "approximately $10 million" previously), while analysts added a new competitive thread around Amazon in Supply Chain. (CEO & Director Diez)
"We've raised our full year 2026 comparable EPS forecast" to "$14.40 to $14.80" after Q1 guidance of "$14.05 to $14.80," with the change tied to "gains now expected to be approximately $40 million for the full year, up $10 million from our prior forecast." (CEO & Director Diez)
Q2 added a clearer timing headwind in Supply Chain onboarding: "some of these projects... are also going to be extended into 2027" and "the timing of new business onboarding in Supply Chain" partially offset the used-vehicle tailwind, compared with Q1 emphasis on used vehicle strength without the same pushout language. (CEO & Director Diez)
Analyst focus broadened from cycle-turn/rental unlock in Q1 to include competitive positioning (Amazon) and more granular fleet timing/utilization in Q2; management repeatedly emphasized sales-cycle lag, including "a quarter or 2 before the sales results really flow into your actual fleet count." (President Havens)
"Market conditions remain below normalized levels, and geopolitical and macroeconomic factors continue to influence the pace and durability of the recovery." (CEO & Director Diez) "Used vehicle buyers" sensitivity to "fuel pricing" and "interest rates" was raised as a swing factor, alongside "geopolitical activities." (President Havens)
Supply Chain exposure to automotive volatility remained explicit: "lost business in automotive" and "plants continue to retool for EV and ICE vehicles" with "some locations... may shut down a little bit more in Q3, Q4." (President Sensing) Management said some onboarding delays are "typically customer-driven" and tied to funding, peak timing, or network readiness. (President Sensing)
Ryder’s management framed Q2 around “seventh consecutive quarter of comparable EPS growth,” a higher 2026 comparable EPS floor of $14.40, and a higher used-vehicle gains outlook of about $40 million, while keeping free cash flow guidance unchanged at $700 million to $800 million. In Q&A, executives characterized Supply Chain demand as still strong despite automotive headwinds and said they have not yet faced Amazon in RFQs, while describing rental as the key cyclical lever that has not yet fully accelerated even as utilization returned to 75% on a smaller fleet.