自由港麦克莫兰二季度电话会称Grasberg爬坡改善但Bagdad资本开支上调

Earnings Call Insights: Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) Q2 2026
“We’re pleased to release FCX’s second quarter results. They can be described in a single word, progress.” (Chairman Richard Adkerson) “Our team today will talk with you about the great progress we have achieved in the second quarter across our global business, notably, the positive execution of the Grasberg ramp-up and the strong operational execution and financial performance achieved in the Americas.”
“Our sales of copper and unit cash costs were better than our forecast.” (CEO, President & Director Kathleen Quirk) “We made steady progress on the Grasberg ramp-up. And combined with the favorable metal price backdrop, we generated significant margins, cash flows and earnings.”
“We are advancing our future growth options with a series of projects in progress to scale production from our innovative leach initiatives.” (CEO Quirk) “We are nearing an investment decision for a major expansion of our Bagdad mine in Arizona and advancing our regulatory work in Chile for a significant expansion at our El Abra mine.”
“During the quarter, we increased our ownership in Cerro Verde… bringing total purchases over an approximate 2-year time frame to over $300 million, increasing our ownership by 2% to over 55%.” (CEO Quirk) “In addition, we returned $600 million to shareholders in the first half, including roughly $200 million in share repurchases.”
“Production rates at the Grasberg Block Cave doubled during the quarter from an April average of 34,000 tons per day to an average of 69,000 tons per day in June.” (CEO Quirk) “Consistent with our April update, we continue to target overall rates in the district approximating 65% of full capacity in the second half of this year, reach 80% by mid-2027 and approach full capacity by the end of 2027.”
“Our current estimate for 2026 average unit net cash cost approximates $1.90 per pound, slightly below the April estimate of $1.95 per pound with higher by-product credits more than offsetting other unit cost increases.” (Executive VP & CFO Maree Robertson)
“We show our 3-year outlook for sales volumes of copper, gold and molybdenum, which remains broadly consistent with our April estimates.” (CFO Robertson) “As we move through 2026, we expect a large increase in second half sales volumes driven by higher volumes at Grasberg and our U.S. operations.”
“For 2027, we expect annual copper sales to increase by more than 20% compared with 2026 and gold volumes to increase by more than 50% with additional growth projected in 2028 for both copper and gold.” (CFO Robertson)
“2027 capital expenditures are estimated at $4.8 billion, approximately $300 million above the April estimate, reflecting investments in upgraded mining equipment and revised cost estimates.” (CFO Robertson)
“Preliminary indications based on current market conditions indicate capital in the $4.5 billion range, which is approximately 30% above the estimate prepared in 2023.” (CEO Quirk) “With enhancements to the operating model, the project still remains supported at a $4 per pound price of copper.”
“The strength and diversity of our portfolio comes through in the results with our U.S. mining operations contributing 2.4x more operating income in the first half of 2026 compared with last year’s first half.” (CEO Quirk) “This is further demonstrated by a 65% increase in our consolidated net income for the first half of 2026 compared with last year’s first half.”
“Putting together our projected volumes and cost estimates… Annual EBITDA would range from approximately $13 billion per annum at $5 copper to $20 billion at $7 copper with operating cash flows ranging from approximately $9.5 billion per year at $5 and $15.5 billion at $7 copper.” (CFO Robertson)
“You will note we are highly leveraged to copper prices with each $0.10 per pound change equating to approximately $390 million in annual EBITDA in the 2027, 2028 periods.” (CFO Robertson)
Lawson Winder, BofA Securities: “Are you seeing some offsetting operating level benefits that would offset that higher CapEx?” CEO Quirk: “We’re doing a lot of work on the Bagdad project to be in a position to review it with our Board and seek final approval in the second half of this year… we’ve also been working on the operating plan… bring in new technologies.”
Katja Jancic, BMO: “In ’28, there’s a bit of a reduction… what is driving that?” CEO Quirk: “We did have some lower grades in 2028 compared to the prior estimate… there was some sequencing timing changes in the 2028 time frame.”
Carlos de Alba, Morgan Stanley: “What the timing and the next steps would be” on the Grasberg extension? CEO Quirk: “We submitted a formal extension application in June… there’s no prescribed time frame… but we’re working very hard to get it done this year.” Chairman Adkerson: “All the signals are good… in Indonesia, sometimes that takes time.”
Timna Tanners, Wells Fargo: “Is there opportunity to do a lot more” Cerro Verde stake purchases? CEO Quirk: “There’s a relatively small float… we’ll just have to continue to be opportunistic about it… It doesn’t really impact the share buybacks at the FCX level.”
Nicklaus Cash, Goldman Sachs: “Could there be potential upside” to second-half Grasberg rates? CEO Quirk: “Our guidance is based on a 60 to 65, plus or minus in the second half… we will have some downtime associated with that… consistent with where we targeted in April.” Mark Johnson (President & COO, Freeport-McMoRan Indonesia): “When that comes up… we’ll see an increase in production… There’s about 25,000 to 30,000 tons a day that come out of the CG-44 area.”
Richard Garchitorena, Barclays: “Sales down versus the prior expectations for the third quarter… made up in the fourth quarter” — why? CEO Quirk: “For the third quarter, our production is expected to be significantly higher than sales… we’ve got some timing adjustments between third quarter and fourth quarter.”
Liam Fitzpatrick, Deutsche Bank: “What’s the level of confidence in reaching this 300 million pound run rate at the end of this year?” CEO Quirk: “We are targeting getting to the run rate of 300 by the end of this year… the next phase… comes from the innovation work.” Cory Stevens (SVP & President & COO, Freeport McMoRan Mining Services): “The early results are better than we had expected to see… we’ve got Gen 2 additives that we believe are a multiple effectiveness.”
William Peterson, JPMorgan: “Any sort of change in Section 232” and NOLs? CEO Quirk: “We do have about just under $6 billion of net operating losses… all of our U.S. sales are priced on the COMEX.”
Christopher LaFemina, Jefferies: “Any outstanding work” at the new Indonesia smelter? CEO Quirk: “All the work that we need to do with the new smelter is complete… it has been operating in a standby mode to date.”
Analysts slightly positive: “Congratulations on a solid quarter and progress at Grasberg.” (Lawson Winder, BofA Securities) with repeated drilling into execution risks around Bagdad capex inflation, Grasberg ramp variability, and sales timing.
Management positive in prepared remarks, more technical/defensive in Q&A: “Our guidance is based on a 60 to 65, plus or minus in the second half.” (CEO Quirk) and on licensing, “we’re working very hard to get it done this year.”
Versus Q1, tone shifts from resolving a “material handling bottleneck” to emphasizing operational momentum: Q1 described constraints as “a timing issue with a designed engineered solution,” while Q2 emphasized “progress” and a “drier weather” backdrop improving conditions. (CEO Quirk; President & COO Johnson)
Grasberg narrative moved from identifying the wet-material constraint to showing ramp results: Q1 said “we now expect to be limited to approximately 60,000 tonnes per day” in 2H 2026 due to chute constraints, while Q2 reported “an average of 69,000 tons per day in June,” alongside planned downtime for chute-gallery upgrades. (CEO Quirk)
Unit net cash cost guidance edged lower: Q1 guided “$1.95 per pound… compared with the prior estimate of $1.75,” while Q2 guided “$1.90 per pound… slightly below the April estimate of $1.95.” (CFO Robertson)
Bagdad disclosure became more specific: Q1 described ongoing retesting of capital; Q2 added “capital in the $4.5 billion range” and said the company expects to seek Board approval “in the second half of this year.” (CEO Quirk)
“It’s a very competitive construction labor market in this region right now” tied to “semiconductors… data centers… power generation,” raising execution and cost risk for Bagdad. (CEO Quirk)
“Markets remain volatile” for diesel and sulfur/acid; management said by-product credits and integration provide offsets: “we essentially have a hedge on sulfuric acid with our significant smelter operations.” (CEO Quirk; CFO Robertson)
Indonesia license timing uncertainty remained: “there’s no prescribed time frame… in Indonesia, sometimes that takes time.” (CEO Quirk; Chairman Adkerson)
Management framed Q2 as operational progress across Grasberg and the Americas, with the clearest forward signals tied to a second-half 2026 volume uplift, a multi-year sales growth profile into 2027-2028, and near-term decision points on Bagdad (with higher capital expectations) and the Grasberg mine-life extension process, while highlighting ongoing commodity-input volatility and project execution constraints as the key watch items.