MaxLinear上调2026年光数据中心收入预期但盘后股价下跌

Earnings Call Insights: MaxLinear (MXL) Q2 2026
“Our Q2 financial results highlight the exciting inflection in our business trajectory and the beginning of a multiyear growth phase for MaxLinear,” said (Co-Founder, Chairman, CEO & President Kishore Seendripu), adding, “revenue grew 55% year-on-year” and “we also returned to positive GAAP EPS of $0.02.”
Seendripu said “Infrastructure is now our largest revenue category and grew 145% year-on-year, driven by robust production ramps in optical data center-oriented platforms,” and added, “we are once again raising our expectations for 2026 optical data center revenue to be between $210 million to $230 million with continued growth as run rates expand into 2027.”
On product ramps and roadmap, Seendripu said “Keystone... continues to ramp into high-volume production at major hyperscale customers across U.S. and Asia for 400-gig and 800-gig deployments,” and said, “We expect Rushmore... to become an important optical connectivity growth driver beginning in 2027.”
Steven Litchfield (CFO & Chief Corporate Strategy Officer Steven Litchfield) said “Total revenue for the second quarter was $168.8 million,” with segment revenue of “approximately $85 million” infrastructure, “approximately $45 million” broadband, “approximately $24 million” connectivity, and “approximately $15 million” industrial and multimarket.
Litchfield guided, “We currently expect revenue in the third quarter of '26 to be between $210 million and $220 million,” and added, “we expect to see growth from all 4 of our business segments with particular strength in infrastructure driven by data center optical interconnects.”
Litchfield said “we are now forecasting Q3 2026 non-GAAP gross margin to be 60% at the midpoint of our guidance range,” and guided “non-GAAP gross margin to be in the range of 58.5% and 61.5% of revenue,” alongside “Q3 non-GAAP operating expenses... $66 million to $71 million.”
Compared with Q1 commentary on next-generation ramps, Seendripu’s Q2 timing language shifted to “We expect Rushmore... beginning in 2027,” while in Q1 he said, “We anticipate production ramps beginning in late 2026.”
Litchfield reported profitability and margins: “GAAP and non-GAAP gross margin for the second quarter were 57.8% and 59.5% of revenue,” and “GAAP EPS for Q2 2026 was $0.02 per share... Non-GAAP EPS was $0.35 per share.”
Litchfield reported operating structure: “Second quarter GAAP operating expenses were $101.8 million and non-GAAP operating expenses were $62.8 million,” and said non-GAAP profitability was reflected in “non-GAAP income from operations in Q2 was 22% of net revenue.”
Litchfield highlighted working capital and supply actions tied to demand: “In Q2, net cash flow provided in operating activities was approximately $4.8 million,” and “We exited Q2 of 2026 with approximately $93.7 million in cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash,” noting this “included a substantial prepayment of wafers supporting rising demand for our data center products for which we have increasing order backlog in the second half of the year and into 2027.”
Tore Svanberg, Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated, Research Division: “you raised the optical transceiver revenue by more than $50 million... mix between 400-gig and 800-gig.” (CEO Seendripu): “all the revenue growth we are seeing now is driven by 800 gigabit PAM4 success for us... 800 gigabit is now substantially going to be a bigger portion of our run rate revenues moving forward,” and “our customers span both U.S. and Asia.”
Cody Acree, The Benchmark Company, LLC, Research Division: “The increase in the optical outlook... that is all just Keystone...?” (CEO Seendripu): “That's correct... It's all driven by Keystone product family.”
Cody Acree, The Benchmark Company, LLC, Research Division: asked on visibility and backlog. (CFO Litchfield): “the visibility is very good... It's going out on or about 6 months anyway.”
Joseph Quatrochi, Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division: asked about broadband demand and transitions. (CFO Litchfield): “Not a whole lot of changes... we've been gaining share on some of our PON programs... telco CapEx spend continue to be good.”
Christopher Rolland, Susquehanna Financial Group, LLLP: asked about long-term gross margin framework. (CFO Litchfield): “I don't think the target has changed,” and “with the product mix... that's still the right goal,” while cautioning, “Right now, we're seeing lots of increases of cost... whether it be on the wafer side or just test assembly, packaging.”
Analysts’ tone was slightly positive and focused on sustainability of the optical ramp and model assumptions, with repeated framing such as “visibility,” “mix,” “concentration,” and long-term margin model questions.
Management tone was positive in prepared remarks and confident in Q&A, using language including (CEO Seendripu) “we are obviously very excited,” and (CFO Litchfield) “we're excited about hitting the 60% level,” while repeatedly pairing optimism with cost/supply caveats.
Versus Q1, management maintained similar “multiyear growth phase” framing, but Q2 responses emphasized near-term magnitude (“visibility... 6 months”) and mix shifting toward 800G.
Optical data center revenue expectations increased: in Q1 Seendripu said “increasing our expectations for 2026 optical data center revenue to $150 million to $170 million range,” while in Q2 he said “once again raising our expectations... between $210 million to $230 million.”
Segment mix and scale continued to shift toward infrastructure: in Q1, Litchfield said “Infrastructure revenue... approximately $63 million,” while in Q2 he said “Infrastructure revenue... approximately $85 million,” alongside Seendripu’s statement that infrastructure is “now our largest revenue category.”
Q&A emphasis stayed centered on optical ramps and supply; Q2 added more detailed discussion of gross margin trajectory and the durability of longer-term targets.
Litchfield flagged input-cost pressure and demand-fulfillment premiums: “we're seeing lots of increases of cost... wafer... test assembly, packaging,” and said, “where you're paying premiums in some cases, meeting customer demand.”
Management described mitigation as pricing and mix: Litchfield said, “In some cases, you can pass this along to customers,” and highlighted that “the mix of our infrastructure products historically has been well above the corporate average.”
Management framed Q2 as a sustained turn into an infrastructure-led cycle, citing “a multiyear growth phase,” raising 2026 optical data center revenue expectations to “$210 million to $230 million,” and guiding Q3 revenue to “between $210 million and $220 million,” while acknowledging that wafer, packaging, and test cost inflation and supply tightness remain active considerations even as 800G Keystone drives the current ramp and Rushmore/Washington/Annapurna are positioned for initial revenue starting in 2027.