Newmont二季度电话会重申全年指引并提示成本与项目风险

Earnings Call Insights: Newmont (NEM) Q2 2026
Management View
- "Newmont delivered a strong second quarter and remains on track to achieve a full year 2026 guidance," Natascha Viljoen (CEO, President & Director) said, adding that the quarter included "1.3 million ounces of gold, 17,000 tonnes of copper and 7 million ounces of silver" and "$2.9 billion of cash flow from operations after working capital and a second quarter record of $2.2 billion in free cash flow."
- Viljoen highlighted capital returns: "Since our last earnings call and including share repurchases in July, we have returned approximately $1.9 billion to shareholders through quarterly dividends and ongoing share repurchases" and "we have now repurchased over 100 million shares since we began our share repurchase program a little over 2 years ago."
- On portfolio execution, Viljoen said Red Chris reached a permitting milestone: "the block cave project received key regulatory approvals from the province of British Columbia," and the team is "focused on completing the feasibility study and advancing the project toward Board approval and final investment decisions."
- On Cadia’s April 14 seismic event, Viljoen said, "Production from the operating caves resumed in mid-June," while adding, "We continue to expect no impact on Newmont's full year production guidance."
- Brian Tabolt (Executive VP & CFO) said, "Newmont delivered strong financial results," citing "$3.8 billion of adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net income of $2.10 per share" and "an average gold price of $4,414 per ounce."
Outlook
- Viljoen said phasing shifted within the year: "Our second quarter operational performance was modestly ahead of the expectations we communicated in April," and the company now expects "approximately 49% of full year production to have been delivered in the first half with 51% expected in the second half."
- Tabolt guided to higher third-quarter cost pressure tied to capital cadence: "total portfolio production in the third quarter is expected to remain broadly in line with the second quarter," and "the planned approximate $150 million quarter-over-quarter increase in sustaining capital is expected to result in moderately higher unit costs in the third quarter."
- On capital allocation, Tabolt said the framework continues to prioritize buybacks: "With those priorities funded, the framework directs all excess cash to share repurchases," and he added that the repurchase formula "would support a quarterly dividend of $0.27 per share at the next annual review" (subject to Board approval).
Financial Results
- Tabolt reported quarterly profitability and cash generation: "We generated $3.8 billion of adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net income of $2.10 per share" and "delivered $2.2 billion of free cash flow."
- He described working-capital dynamics: "Working capital was a modest use of cash during the quarter," and warned, "working capital variability may continue, including the potential unwinding of a portion of the receivable benefit recorded in the quarter."
- On costs, Tabolt said, "Gold all-in sustaining costs were $1,621 per ounce on a byproduct basis, remaining well below our full year guidance of $1,680 per ounce," while noting sequential cost drivers included "the full quarter impact of higher Ghana royalties and higher diesel prices."
- On balance sheet positioning, Tabolt said Newmont ended Q2 with "$3.4 billion of net cash," "modestly above the upper end" of its "net cash target of $1 billion, plus or minus $2 billion."
Q&A
- Fahad Tariq, Jefferies LLC: asked about second-half cost pressure from oil and knock-on freight and consumables; Tabolt: "with the oil price jumping up to $100 a barrel, we are watching and monitoring cost pressures" and reiterated sensitivity: "for every $10 per barrel change in the price of oil, you'll see on a full year basis about a $60 million impact."
- Fahad Tariq, Jefferies LLC: asked about a "$500 million" Canadian government investment at Red Chris; Viljoen: "we're still working at the moment on the MOU... to determine the full terms and conditions of the grant."
- Hugo Nicolaci, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.: asked about the path "back to 6 million ounces" and Cadia dependence; Viljoen: "the development of the Cadia caves, we're less reliant on" and listed other levers including "Ahafo North," "Cerro Negro, Tanami," "Boddington," and "Lihir Nearshore Barrier."
- Daniel Morgan, Barrenjoey: asked about Lihir’s trajectory; Viljoen: "we feel quite positive and encouraged," citing "stability through the mining operations" and "an improvement in reliability" and "a reduction in cost and labor."
- Richard Garchitorena, Barclays: asked about Red Chris feasibility and capex inflation; Viljoen: "we expect the capital to be higher than what the original numbers were under Newcrest," while saying Newmont will apply "a very rigorous process" before Board consideration.
- Anita Soni, CIBC: pressed on Cadia restart distinctions; Viljoen: "The 2 operating caves are fully back in production" and explained establishment remains halted because "you do see seismic activity during the establishment of the caves."
- Lawson Winder, BofA Securities: asked about Fourmile value offsets at Nevada Gold Mines; Viljoen: "There will be benefit from the synergies out of the NGM operations" that "should offset against any capital requirement from Newmont."
- Joshua Wolfson, RBC: asked about Ghana risks and engagement; Viljoen: "we have been in active conversations" and "entered into agreement... to create a working group" toward "a forward-looking agreement."
- Daniel Major, UBS: asked about reinstating multiyear guidance; Viljoen: "We are aiming to review the way that we give guidance in February next year."
Sentiment Analysis
- Analysts’ tone was slightly negative to pressing on cost inflation, Ghana policy risk, and capital intensity, with recurring focus on diesel/oil, broader inflation, and project capex visibility.
- Management’s tone was slightly positive in prepared remarks ("delivered a strong second quarter"; "remains on track") and more controlled/deflective on Nevada Gold Mines litigation, with Viljoen stating, "I will not be able to answer any specific questions regarding the issue."
- Versus Q1, management maintained confidence on 2026 guidance while shifting emphasis toward leadership changes, Q2 free cash flow, and a more explicit warning about unresolved JV issues ("several key issues still unresolved").
Quarter-over-Quarter Comparison
- Leadership and governance changed meaningfully: Q2 introduced "our newly appointed... Chief Financial Officer" Brian Tabolt, while Q1 featured Peter Wexler as "Interim CFO" and management said the recruitment process "is going well."
- Cash-return messaging remained central across both calls, but Q2 emphasized the milestone "repurchased over 100 million shares," while Q1 emphasized a new "$6 billion" repurchase authorization and described exhausting the prior program.
- The Nevada Gold Mines discussion sharpened in Q2: Q1 described engagement as "constructively" and the default process as "open ended," while Q2 added a warning that Newmont is "nearing the end of this extensive direct engagement period" with "key issues still unresolved."
Risks and Concerns
- Tabolt flagged energy inflation exposure, saying oil at "$100 a barrel" would continue pressuring costs with lags and indirect impacts through "explosives, cyanide, grinding media" and "freight."
- Viljoen described regulatory and operational risks at Cadia cave establishment, saying restart requires "regulatory approvals" and updated controls because cave establishment involves seismicity.
- Viljoen highlighted Ghana policy uncertainty, while stating Newmont is pursuing mitigation through government engagement and "a working group" for a "forward-looking agreement" to support stability for investment.
Final Takeaway
Newmont’s management emphasized Q2’s record "$2.2 billion" free cash flow, reiterated it is "on track" for full-year 2026 guidance despite diesel-driven cost pressure, and underscored continued capital returns through dividends and buybacks, including repurchasing "over 100 million shares." Operational focus centered on Red Chris advancing toward a feasibility-driven Board decision and Cadia recovery work with no expected impact to full-year production guidance, while management also signaled that discussions with Barrick over Nevada Gold Mines remain unresolved and sensitive.
Read the full Earnings Call Transcript