Deckers一季度业绩略超预期但二季度指引低于预期并上调关税假设

Earnings Call Insights: Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) Q1 fiscal 2027
Management View
- “For the first time in Deckers history, we delivered over $1 billion of revenue in the first quarter as total company revenue increased 5.7% versus last year, and diluted earnings per share was $0.94, both above our expectations for the quarter,” said (CEO, President & Director Stefano Caroti), adding that DTC increased 13% and that HOKA and UGG “continued to capture high level of full-price consumer demand.”
- Caroti said wholesale growth reflected planned international shipment timing differences, while “underlying consumer demand for our brands remains strong across international markets and domestically,” and emphasized disciplined supply and pricing: “we have been disciplined in how we're managing supply, protecting brand heat and avoiding unnecessary promotional pressure.”
- On HOKA, Caroti reported “global revenue in the first quarter increased 8% versus last year to $704 million,” highlighted early traction for new performance segmentation (Fly vs. Glide), and said the “first-ever Clifton Pro” is seeing “some accounts already placing reorders.”
- On UGG, Caroti reported “global revenue in the first quarter increased 5% versus last year to $278 million,” citing Asia strength and mix shift benefits from “directing greater marketing and product investments toward fashion casual footwear, sneakers and sandals.”
- “Total company revenue was $1.02 billion, up 5.7% versus the prior year,” said (Chief Financial Officer Steve Fasching), and added, “Gross margin for the quarter was 56.4%,” with higher SG&A reflecting store growth, marketing, tech, and prior-year hiring annualization.
Outlook
- Fasching guided Q2 diluted EPS of $1.73 to $1.78 vs. analysts’ $1.90, and said Q2 consolidated revenue is expected “up approximately 5%,” vs. analysts’ $1.55B.
- For FY2027, Fasching maintained revenue of $5.86B to $5.91B and raised EPS guidance to $7.35 to $7.50, saying the increase “represents a $0.05 increase due to our increased gross margin expectations on the year.”
- Fasching increased the “go-forward tariff rate assumption to 12.5% from the prior 10%,” while stating, “we continue to pursue tariff refunds related to the IEEPA ruling but have not included any assumptions regarding refunds as a part of our guidance at this time.”
- Management reiterated a back-half weighting: Fasching said growth is expected “to accelerate in the second half,” driven “primarily by the HOKA brand and our international wholesale and distributor business,” and warned that “quarterly growth is not always linear.”
Financial Results
- Q1 revenue was $1.02B vs. analysts’ $1.02B, and diluted EPS was $0.94 vs. analysts’ $0.87.
- Fasching attributed gross margin drivers and offsets, including that the “net headwind of tariffs” partially offset mix and full-price benefits, and said SG&A rose to $420M.
- Capital returns remained a major focus: Fasching said Deckers repurchased “approximately $338 million worth of shares at an average price per share of $103.79,” with “approximately $4.7 billion remaining” on authorization.
- Balance sheet and inventory commentary remained central to the full-price strategy: Fasching reported $1.6B cash, inventory of $808M “down 5%,” and “no outstanding borrowings.”
Q&A
- Jay Sole, UBS: Asked how multiple HOKA franchises can support double-digit growth beyond this year and about the value of clean/full-price selling; CEO Caroti said “consumers are responding to newness and innovation,” cited reorders on Clifton 11/Clifton Pro, and said “we enforce scarcity in the marketplace,” while CFO Fasching said overperformance was “largely… maintaining that full price selling,” detailing drivers including “better management of closeout… about 60 basis points.”
- Adrienne Yih-Tennant, Barclays: Asked about competition and tariff refunds; CEO Caroti said HOKA is “maintain[ing] or gain[ing] share” and referenced Circana share gains, while CFO Fasching said refunds aren’t assumed and, if received, Deckers would “work with our partners who shared in some of that and return some of those funds to our partners,” while also planning with the 12.5% tariff assumption.
- Laurent Vasilescu, BNP Paribas: Pressed on DTC strength and warm-weather order risk; CFO Fasching said the growth pattern is “really a change in logistics… not any change in assumption in demand,” and CEO Caroti said, “No, no cancellations to the order book,” arguing UGG is “less depending on a cold winter than ever before.”
- Paul Lejuez, Citi: Asked about Europe promotions and tariff pressure; CEO Caroti said Europe demand remains high and consumers “gravitate to premium brands,” while CFO Fasching said Q1 tariffs were a larger YoY headwind because “inventory… this year did have tariffs on it.”
- Samuel Poser, Williams Trading: Questioned HOKA closeout tactics and UGG distribution changes; CFO Fasching said better closeout management contributed to gross margin but declined to quantify beyond prior bridge, while CEO Caroti said the premium marketplace strategy reflects “no major changes.”
Sentiment Analysis
- Analysts were slightly skeptical, repeatedly probing tariff uncertainty, DTC durability, seasonality risk, and channel mix timing (e.g., Laurent Vasilescu asked about DTC embedded in Q2; Adrienne Yih-Tennant asked how refunds might flow through pricing/partners).
- Management tone was slightly positive and control-oriented, repeatedly emphasizing full-price discipline and logistics timing rather than demand softness, with phrases such as CEO Caroti’s “we enforce scarcity in the marketplace” and CFO Fasching’s “it’s not any change in assumption in demand.”
- Versus the prior quarter, management maintained confidence but shifted to more explicit near-term pressure framing (tariff rate assumption raised to 12.5% and Q2 gross margin expected “to be down due to tariffs and rising freight costs”), while still reiterating second-half acceleration.
Quarter-over-Quarter Comparison
- Guidance tightened upward on profitability: FY2027 EPS moved to $7.35-$7.50 from $7.30-$7.45 previously, while the revenue range stayed $5.86B-$5.91B.
- Tariff framing became more conservative on the go-forward rate, moving from assuming 10% previously to 12.5% now, while refund language remained consistent (no refunds embedded).
- Operational narrative was consistent on timing: both calls stressed international wholesale/distributor shipment shifts and that “growth may not be linear,” but Q1 added a detailed gross margin bridge tied to closeouts/full-price selling.
- Analyst focus stayed concentrated on HOKA innovation/franchise scaling, wholesale expansion, and UGG seasonality risk, with heightened attention in the current quarter on tariff refund mechanics and the updated tariff-rate assumption.
Risks and Concerns
- Management cited macro and cost pressures including “tariffs and rising freight costs,” and noted Q2 gross margin pressure expected from those items.
- Fasching flagged tariff refund uncertainty: “Timing on that is not specific yet,” and said recoveries would “most likely come in over a period of time,” not as a lump sum.
- Wholesale/distributor shipment timing shifts remain a key variability driver; Fasching emphasized these are logistics-driven rather than demand-driven.
Final Takeaway
Deckers’ management portrayed Q1 as a full-price, DTC-led quarter with newness-driven momentum at HOKA and a more diversified, less weather-dependent UGG, while raising FY2027 EPS guidance to $7.35-$7.50 and lifting the go-forward tariff assumption to 12.5% without embedding any potential refunds. Management repeatedly framed wholesale variability as timing/logistics rather than demand, and maintained that brand heat, inventory discipline, and second-half acceleration—particularly tied to HOKA international wholesale and distributor fulfillment—remain central to the fiscal 2027 plan.
Read the full Earnings Call Transcript