波士顿啤酒Q2电话会显示销量承压但维持全年EPS指引并上调毛利率下限

Earnings Call Insights: The Boston Beer Company (SAM) Q2 2026
Management view
- “We anticipate industry volume headwinds for the remainder of 2026 as consumers remain under pressure from the cumulative effects of inflation and a significant increase in gas prices,” said Founder, Chairman, President & CEO C. Koch.
- “In the second quarter, we delivered triple-digit depletion growth in Sun Cruiser,” while “Twisted Tea and Truly continue to face declines and market share challenges,” said CEO Koch.
- “We continue to make strong progress on our margin enhancement initiatives, delivering 50.4% second quarter gross margin despite higher aluminum energy and tariff costs,” and “we have repurchased over $55 million in shares year-to-date,” said CEO Koch.
- “We have decided to reduce our planned incremental advertising investment range by $20 million by eliminating some lower performing advertising,” said CEO Koch.
- “Revenue for the quarter decreased 3.3% due to lower volume, partially offset by price increases and favorable product mix,” said CFO & Treasurer Diego Reynoso.
Outlook
- “We are maintaining our full year volume guidance range of down low single digits to down mid-single digits,” and “based on our current total company trends, we would expect full year performance towards the lower end of the range,” said CFO Reynoso.
- “Our updated gross margin guidance of 48.5% to 50%” and “non-GAAP EPS of $8.50 to $10.50,” said CFO Reynoso.
- “We’ve updated our outlook for advertising, promotional and selling expenses and now expect them to be flat to up $20 million versus the prior year compared to our previous expectation of an increase of $20 million and $40 million,” said CFO Reynoso.
- “We expect capital expenditures of between $60 million and $80 million in 2026, a reduction from our previous estimate of between $70 million and $90 million,” said CFO Reynoso.
Financial results
- “Depletions in the second quarter decreased 6% and shipments decreased 4.5% compared to the second quarter of last year,” and “distributor inventories at the end of the quarter was 4.5 weeks on hand,” said CFO Reynoso.
- “Our second quarter gross margin of 50.4% increased 60 basis points year-over-year,” said CFO Reynoso.
- “Advertising, promotional and selling expenses increased $26.2 million or 16.4% year-on-year,” driven by “increased local brand marketing and point-of-sale investments of $17.5 million and a slightly higher-than-planned freight cost increase of $8.6 million,” said CFO Reynoso.
- “The supplier dispute litigation expense adjustment of $19.3 million consists of a favorable adjustment to prejudgment interest of $21 million and post-judgment interest expense of $1.7 million,” and “excluding the litigation-related expenses, second quarter non-GAAP EPS was $3.65,” said CFO Reynoso.
Q&A
- Filippo Falorni, Citi: Asked about “volatility” and “Any signs of underlying improvement in July”; Founder, Chairman, President & CEO Koch: “all alcoholic beverages are under some pressure,” and “the economic pressure… has offset some of the macro trends.”
- Filippo Falorni, Citi: Asked if volume tracking “towards the lower end” implies EPS to the low end; CFO Reynoso: “Not necessarily the same thing on EPS,” citing “we took our guidance slightly up on gross margin” and “we have the ability to flex… our investments.”
- Peter Grom, UBS: Asked how World Cup/“America 250” played out; CEO Koch: on-premise saw “tremendous numbers like 30% increase,” but “on-premise is 12% of our business,” and the events were “a big impact in a small part of the year.”
- Eric Serotta, Morgan Stanley: Asked about sustaining Sun Cruiser growth as distribution matures; CEO Koch: “so far this year for Sun Cruiser, it’s up triple digits,” and for 2027 “I would certainly anticipate well into the double digits next year.”
- Eric Serotta, Morgan Stanley: Pressed that Twisted Tea actions “doesn’t really seem to be moving the needle”; CEO Koch: “we believe that a lot of the loss volume out of Twisted Tea went into the RTD spirits-based hard tea,” and cited “success with getting the pricing fixed” in certain markets.
- Bonnie Herzog, Goldman Sachs: Challenged depletions risk and reduced ad spend; CFO Reynoso: “if current trend continues, we are on the low end,” but cited “some improvements,” plus “2 big innovations… LYTT and Sinless”; CEO Koch: “the cuts that we made were to the low-performing media… which primarily Truly.”
- William Kirk, ROTH: Asked expansion criteria for Sinless and LYTT; CEO Koch: Sinless expansion “wouldn’t be until next year,” and for LYTT “it will be early next year before… a reliable read.”
- William Kirk, ROTH: Asked about intoxicating hemp/THC; CEO Koch: “we are kind of locked and loaded,” and “we will wait to see what the government tells us is legal or not legal to do and respond accordingly.”
Sentiment analysis
- Analyst tone was slightly negative to pressing on demand and ad ROI, including “how big of a risk do you see for your depletions to possibly decrease further,” and “it doesn’t really seem to be moving the needle.”
- Management tone was slightly positive but cautious, emphasizing uncertainty and flexibility, including “we can’t control what the market will do,” and “we have the ability to flex some of the things like our investments.”
- Versus Q1, management language shifted from “we were encouraged to see some signs of improvement” (Q1) to “the operating environment remains challenging” (Q2), while analysts continued to focus on Twisted Tea and category durability.
Quarter-over-quarter comparison
- Guidance stance held on non-GAAP EPS at “$8.50 to $10.50,” while gross margin guidance moved from “48% to 50%” (Q1) to “48.5% to 50%” (Q2), per CFO Reynoso.
- Planned brand spending expectations tightened: Q1 projected advertising, promotional and selling expense increases of “between $20 million and $40 million,” while Q2 updated to “flat to up $20 million,” per CFO Reynoso.
- Brand narrative sharpened around investment reallocation: Q2 attributed the $20 million reduction to “lower performing advertising… primarily Truly,” while Q1 emphasized maintaining flexibility on spend.
Risks and concerns
- “We anticipate industry volume headwinds… from the cumulative effects of inflation and a significant increase in gas prices,” said CEO Koch.
- “We do not hedge commodities,” and “updated our cost assumptions for freight and aluminum,” said CFO Reynoso.
- “Year-to-date pretax litigation expenses plus related fees totaled $198.1 million,” and the company “continue[s] to intend to pursue all post-trial motions and appellate remedies,” said CFO Reynoso.
Final takeaway
Management described a Q2 marked by continued volume declines and share pressure in Twisted Tea and Truly, offset by “triple-digit” Sun Cruiser growth, a 50.4% gross margin, and an updated plan to reduce incremental advertising by $20 million while maintaining 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance of $8.50 to $10.50 and raising the low end of gross margin guidance to 48.5%.
Read the full Earnings Call Transcript