哈雷戴维森二季度上调全年销量和经营利润指引，但利润下滑、欧洲和关税压力仍在

Earnings Call Insights: Harley-Davidson (HOG) Q2 2026
“In the second quarter, we are pleased with the early progress we made against that plan,” Arthur Starrs (CEO, President & Director) said of “Back to the Bricks,” adding, “Domestic retail remains strong with North America retail up 3%.”
Starrs emphasized dealer economics and inventory discipline: “At the end of the quarter, dealer inventory position was meaningfully improved and over 85% of dealer inventory was model year 2026 product,” and “Based on current trends, we expect domestic dealer profitability to double in 2026.”
On product and pricing realization, Starrs said, “Sell-through on Super Glide has been strong, dealer enthusiasm has been high and MSRP realization is among the strongest we have seen in some time,” and described Deadwood reaction as “overwhelmingly positive and enthusiastic.”
On portfolio and adjacencies, Starrs said, “We’ve appointed a GM of the business” for Parts & Accessories and that “P&A is tracking ahead of our beginning-of-year plans,” while also highlighting HDFS as “a more capital-efficient model.”
Jonathan Root (CFO & Chief Commercial Officer) summarized the quarter’s setup: “In Q2, North American retail sales of new motorcycles were up 3% versus prior year with approximately 30,000 motorcycles sold,” and “Harley-Davidson reaching 32% of the U.S. 601+cc market.”
Root: “For the full year 2026, the company now expects at HDMC retail units of 133,500 to 138,500 units… up from our previous range of 130,000 to 135,000 units,” and “wholesale units of 133,500 to 138,500 units.”
Root: “At HDMC, we now expect operating income of $10 million to $50 million… up from our previous range of positive $10 million to a loss of $40 million,” and “At HDFS, we now expect operating income of $55 million to $70 million… up from our previous range of $45 million to $60 million.”
Root reiterated tariffs: “We continue to expect the cost of new or increased tariffs to be in a range of $75 million to $90 million, same as what we expected at our last earnings.”
Starrs restated longer-dated targets: “We believe we’re on track for the $150 million of fixed cost savings in 2027 and the $350 million plus of HDMC EBITDA target we referenced in our last call.”
Root reported HDMC performance: “In Q2, HDMC revenue increased by 6%, coming in at $1.1 billion,” including “motorcycle revenue… $848 million,” “P&A… $177 million,” and “Apparel and licensing… $62 million.”
Root on profitability: “In Q2, HDMC gross profit came in at 27.5%,” while “operating income margin was 6.6%,” and “HDMC had operating income of $72 million.”
Root on HDFS mix shift: “At Harley-Davidson Financial Services, Q2 revenue came in at $117 million, a decrease of 55%,” while “HDFS operating income was $22 million.” Root also cited credit and originations: “annualized retail credit loss ratio… was 3.0%,” and “total retail loan originations… were up 10%, coming in at $940 million.”
Root on cash flow and capital return: “we had net cash use of $59 million from operating activities in Q2,” and “we repurchased a total of 1.3 million shares worth $30 million.”
Root on consolidated results: “Consolidated revenue in the second quarter was down 6%,” and “earnings per share was $0.75.”
Craig Kennison, Baird: asked if “guidance for HDMC include the $20 million IEEPA refund” and on 2027 timing/volume; Root: “the dollars… of about $20 million are included in the updated guidance,” and Starrs: “ship Sprint end of this year and Sportster… will be in ’27.”
Stephen Grambling, Morgan Stanley: asked about inventory “adjust accordingly” and forecasting; Starrs: “I wasn’t intending to forecast a material change from where we are,” and Root: “don’t expect that you’re going to see an increase in dealer inventory in any significance.”
Robin Farley, UBS: pressed on tariff recoveries and 2027 targets; Starrs: “I’m not prepared to adjust any of the 2027 targets at this time,” and Root: “we exclude the recovery from that amount.”
Anthony Bonadio, Wells Fargo: asked what drove improved U.S. demand; Starrs: “The promotional… activity ended in March,” and cited “portfolio adjustments… evidenced by Super Glide and Deadwood,” plus “Nightster continues to be a successful motorcycle.”
Joseph Altobello, Raymond James: asked to “quantify the impact” of production below shipments and retail cadence; Root referenced 2027 alignment and said “the leverage benefit is contemplated,” while Starrs: “we’re not going to give July guidance.”
James Hardiman, Citi: asked about 2H retail and promo cadence; Starrs: “There wasn’t elevated promo,” and said dealers report “very high sell-through rates and very high MSRP realization.”
Noah Zatzkin, KeyBanc: asked what’s embedded in the $75 million-$90 million tariff view and Section 122; Root: “no change in tariff expectations,” and “we don’t envision that there are any further tariff recoveries… for the balance of the year.”
Tristan Thomas-Martin, BMO: asked if recoveries drove raised guidance; Root: “we hadn’t contemplated tariff recoveries,” and “That certainly gives us confidence” in the updated operating income range.
Brandon Rollé, Loop: asked about confidence in “$150 million in cost savings”; Starrs: “we feel quite good about the $150 million.”
John Healy, Northcoast: asked about “right inventory” and used bikes; Starrs: “The used bike market residuals are extremely strong,” and dealers now say inventory is “either just right or they’re asking for more bikes.”
Analysts were neutral-to-skeptical, with repeated clarification requests on tariffs and guidance inclusions, including “still a little confused about tariffs in relation to guidance” (Tristan Thomas-Martin, BMO).
Management tone was slightly positive in prepared remarks and steady in Q&A, emphasizing execution and discipline, including “we are pleased with the early progress” (CEO Starrs) and “we are increasing our financial guidance for 2026” (CFO Root).
Versus the prior quarter, Q2 contained more operational follow-through and less strategy introduction; Q1 introduced “Back to the Bricks,” while Q2 emphasized “early progress” and a guidance increase.
Guidance moved higher in Q2, with Root raising ranges for 2026 HDMC retail/wholesale units and operating income, and raising the HDFS operating income range; Q1 had “reaffirms its guidance.”
Europe became a more explicit pressure point in Q2; Root said EMEA retail sales “decline of 9%,” and Starrs: “Europe remains a challenging market.”
U.S. retail growth slowed sequentially (from Q1’s 14% to Q2’s 3% as described by management), while management stressed normalization of promotions: “The promotional… activity ended in March” (CEO Starrs).
Starrs: “Europe remains a challenging market,” and “we are working through a couple of domestic supplier challenges… they have had an impact on margins in 2026.”
Starrs: “tariff uncertainty remains an ongoing factor,” while Root reiterated a “$75 million to $90 million” tariff cost range and said the company was “not planning for any additional meaningful tariff recoveries for the balance of 2026.”
Harley-Davidson management framed Q2 as “early progress” under “Back to the Bricks,” citing North America retail growth, improved dealer inventory quality, and strong early indicators for Super Glide and Deadwood, while raising 2026 guidance across unit volumes and operating income ranges at both HDMC and HDFS. At the same time, management highlighted ongoing uncertainties in Europe, supplier-related margin impacts, and a fluid tariff environment, with continued emphasis on inventory discipline and dealer profitability as core execution priorities.