MaxLinear二季度超预期但股价盘中大跌，市场认为光互连利好已充分定价

MaxLinear (MXL) shares collapsed 17% during trading on Friday despite second quarter results that surpassed expectations and demonstrated strong gains stemming from data center demand.
Although investors were engaged in a selloff following the results, financial analysts came away from the results impressed.
"The company raised its FY26 DSP revenue outlook to $210-230MM (from $150-170MM), driven by the continued ramp of its Keystone PAM4 DSP," said Needham analyst N. Quin Bolton in a Friday investor note. "Management cited increasing demand from hyperscalers, Tier 1 data center customers, and OEMs across the U.S. and Asia, supported by both market share gains and the continued expansion of the optical interconnect TAM.
"Incremental demand has been driven primarily by 800G deployments, and management expects 800G shipments to continue to grow in 2027, even as its 1.6T Rushmore DSP begins to ramp. Lastly, order visibility remains strong, with lead times extending approximately six months. We now model 2026 Infrastructure revenue of $382MM, +158% Y/Y (vs. our prior estimate of $318MM)."
Needham maintained its Buy rating and increased its price target to $100 from $60.
Meanwhile, Stifel reiterated its Buy rating and boosted its price target to $120 from $110.
"MaxLinear's Infrastructure business momentum continued in the Jun Q, as it grew +35.3% q/q (+145% y/y) and is now 50% of revenue," said Stifel analyst Tore Svanborg in a note. "As its optical business has become the main growth driver for the company, management raised its outlook for CY26E optical revenue to $220mn at the midpoint, +$60mn over the 1Q26 outlook midpoint of $160mn."
Susquehanna maintained its neutral rating on the stock and increased its price target to $80 from $45. Although the results were positive, the investment firm believes this sentiment was already embedded in the stock given its overall surge this year. Shares have already catapulted more than 300% year to date.
Finally, Roth maintained its Buy rating and increased its price target to $100 from $60.
"We believe the outlook into CY27 for optical is constructive, with MXL's 1.6T product sampling today having the opportunity to layer on top of long-lived 800G programs," said Roth analyst Suji Dessilva in a note. "Additionally, we expect broader incremental optical product contributions beyond transceiver DSPs that include mixed-signal TIA and drivers increasingly included with newer LPO/LRO/CPO architectures. We expect steady gross margin levels with tailwind as infrastructure segment revenue increases in the mix."
Competitors such as Marvell (MRVL), Broadcom (AVGO) and Credo (CRDO), along with most semiconductor stocks, were all trending lower as well on Friday.