Seeking Alpha 讨论 Netflix 股价跌至52周低点后是否值得买入

Netflix (NFLX) shares have fallen 40% over the past 12 months, with the stock hitting a 52-week low on July 17.
We asked Seeking Alpha analysts Steven Mallas, Oliver Rodzianko, and Elina Selianska if they thought this was a good time to buy the stock.
Steven Mallas: Yes, Netflix (NFLX) is a buy at the 52-week low. Although the company has become more opaque in terms of sharing metrics with Wall Street, we know it has a 300M+ subscriber base, and that is a powerful thing to leverage to create future shareholder value.
It has significant optionality and levers it can pull to cater to that base, from expanding advertising revenue to distributing original theatrical films at the multiplex to scaling its physical merchandising business. And it is arguably cheap based on forward earnings estimates, even if those estimates come down a little. Investors who buy at the yearly low—and even lower—are getting a powerful long-term idea at a great discount.
Oliver Rodzianko: Yes, Netflix (NFLX) is a staged Strong Buy for me. The stock is only about 26 times management's $11B free cash flow outlook, while still expecting 13%-14% revenue growth and 20%+ operating income growth this year. Ads are likely to double to $3B, and $27.1B of buyback capacity supports the shareholder base.
I understand the risks, though. Q3 growth is slowing to 11.7%, while first-half viewing hours rose only 2%. Monetization is strong, but future ROIC needs to be monitored. I would build toward a 5% position in tranches, but as my 18-month target remains $107, I wouldn't be afraid to start now. Even if the AI bubble properly deflates, Netflix (NFLX) stock is already low enough to make this price a strong starter tranche.
I find the stock worthy of a full position around $55 per share. That would be nearly 100% upside to my 18-month fair value target. That's a steal for a company most of us use regularly and isn't going away soon. The moat is strong in this one.
Elina Selianska: Netflix (NFLX) indeed looks oversold on the charts, which could trigger a short-term relief rally, but I would still abstain from adding it to a long-term portfolio. The core issue lies in the fact that the high-growth story is basically over. The market recognized this fact and has dragged the stock's valuation way down.
It used to be a high-flying growth play, but right now it has simply transformed into a steady, mature value stock. Plus, you have a huge wall of supply hanging right above us around the $100 level. These are trapped investors who bought near the top, and the very second the price bounces, they will begin selling into that strength just to cut their losses.