Seeking AlphaCodex · 实盘不做把握 5/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 19:03:14时区推断·⟳ 抓取 19:09:02·⚡ 决策 07-27 19:10:07 +1m05s·91.8 天前
Alliance Resource Partners二季度EPS和收入小幅低于预期，全年经营指引基本维持
本次EPS 0.61美元低于预期0.03美元、收入5.516亿美元低于预期约439万美元，属于财报小幅不及预期。
📄 原文Seeking Alpha↗ 原文
Alliance Resource Partners GAAP EPS of $0.61 misses by $0.03, revenue of $551.6M misses by $4.39M
2026 Full Year Guidance | | | | | | | Coal Operations | | | | | | Volumes (Million Short Tons) | | | | | | Illinois Bas…
不做 Alliance Resource Partners（ARLP.US）
财报小幅miss但无全年指引大幅下修，负面催化不够强；未核到Futu可借券回执，且不满足强空红线，不做。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
消息传播链
- 公司提前公告将于2026-07-27美股盘前披露二季度业绩，并在10:00 ET召开电话会，财报日历本身并非突发。
- Seeking Alpha发布二季度财报快讯，披露GAAP EPS 0.61美元低预期0.03美元、收入5.516亿美元低预期439万美元。市场反应:信号到达时为美股盘前，连续交易尚未开始。
关键理由
- 本次EPS 0.61美元低于预期0.03美元、收入5.516亿美元低于预期约439万美元，属于财报小幅不及预期。
- 正文给出的2026年煤炭销量、售价、成本和资本开支指引与一季度更新后的区间大体一致，未见新的全年盈利基线大幅下修。
- 公司仍维持较高已定价销量和季度现金分配背景，负面增量更像常规财报miss而非强空催化。
主要风险
- 财报电话会在2026-07-27 10:00 ET举行，若管理层下调煤价、销量或分配预期，需重新评估。
- 煤炭价格和运输扰动若继续压低实现售价/销量，当前小幅miss可能被市场放大。
反向证据
- 做空前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-07-27 · 影响 weakens
本次虽有EPS和收入小幅miss，但全年销量/售价/成本指引未明显下调，负面强度不足以开空。
检索:Alliance Resource Partners Q2 2026 guidance distribution coal sales tons July 2026 原文 ↗
原文全文
展开原文 · 1,702 字
2026 Full Year Guidance |
| | | | | |
Coal Operations | | | | | |
Volumes (Million Short Tons) | | | | | |
Illinois Basin sales tons | | | | | 26.00 — 27.00 |
Appalachia sales tons | | | | | 7.75 — 8.25 |
Total sales tons | | | | | 33.75 — 35.25 |
| | | | | |
Committed & Priced Sales Tons | | | | | |
2026 — Domestic / Export / Total | | | | | 31.3 / 3.0 / 34.3 |
2027 — Domestic / Export / Total | | | | | 26.7 / 2.7 / 29.4 |
| | | | | |
Coal Sales Price Per Ton Sold (1) | | | | | |
Illinois Basin | | | | | $50.00 — $52.00 |
Appalachia | | | | | $65.00 — $69.00 |
Total | | | | | $54.00 — $56.00 |
| | | | | |
Segment Adjusted EBITDA Expense Per Ton Sold (2) | | | | | |
Illinois Basin | | | | | $33.00 — $35.00 |
Appalachia | | | | | $48.00 — $52.00 |
Total | | | | | $37.00 — $39.00 |
| | | | | |
Royalties | | | | | |
Oil & Gas Royalties (3) | | | | | |
Oil (000 Barrels) | | | | | 1,950 — 2,050 |
Natural gas (000 MCF) | | | | | 10,000 — 10,500 |
Liquids (000 Barrels) | | | | | 1,100 — 1,200 |
Segment Adjusted EBITDA Expense (% of Oil & Gas Royalties Revenue) | | | | | ~ 14.0% |
| | | | | |
Coal Royalties | | | | | |
Royalty tons sold (Million Short Tons) | | | | | 29.5 — 30.2 |
Revenue per royalty ton sold | | | | | $3.00 — $3.20 |
Segment Adjusted EBITDA Expense per royalty ton sold | | | | | $1.10 — $1.20 |
| | | | | |
Consolidated (Millions) | | | | | |
Depreciation, depletion and amortization | | | | | $315 — $325 |
General and administrative | | | | | $95 — $100 |
Net interest expense | | | | | $49 — $52 |
Income tax expense | | | | | $22 — $24 |
Net income attributable to non-controlling interests (4) | | | | | $13 — $15 |
Total capital expenditures | | | | | $280 — $300 |
| | | | | |
Coal Operations | | | | | |
Volumes (Million Short Tons) | | | | | |
Illinois Basin sales tons | | | | | 26.00 — 27.00 |
Appalachia sales tons | | | | | 7.75 — 8.25 |
Total sales tons | | | | | 33.75 — 35.25 |
| | | | | |
Committed & Priced Sales Tons | | | | | |
2026 — Domestic / Export / Total | | | | | 31.3 / 3.0 / 34.3 |
2027 — Domestic / Export / Total | | | | | 26.7 / 2.7 / 29.4 |
| | | | | |
Coal Sales Price Per Ton Sold (1) | | | | | |
Illinois Basin | | | | | $50.00 — $52.00 |
Appalachia | | | | | $65.00 — $69.00 |
Total | | | | | $54.00 — $56.00 |
| | | | | |
Segment Adjusted EBITDA Expense Per Ton Sold (2) | | | | | |
Illinois Basin | | | | | $33.00 — $35.00 |
Appalachia | | | | | $48.00 — $52.00 |
Total | | | | | $37.00 — $39.00 |
| | | | | |
Royalties | | | | | |
Oil & Gas Royalties (3) | | | | | |
Oil (000 Barrels) | | | | | 1,950 — 2,050 |
Natural gas (000 MCF) | | | | | 10,000 — 10,500 |
Liquids (000 Barrels) | | | | | 1,100 — 1,200 |
Segment Adjusted EBITDA Expense (% of Oil & Gas Royalties Revenue) | | | | | ~ 14.0% |
| | | | | |
Coal Royalties | | | | | |
Royalty tons sold (Million Short Tons) | | | | | 29.5 — 30.2 |
Revenue per royalty ton sold | | | | | $3.00 — $3.20 |
Segment Adjusted EBITDA Expense per royalty ton sold | | | | | $1.10 — $1.20 |
| | | | | |
Consolidated (Millions) | | | | | |
Depreciation, depletion and amortization | | | | | $315 — $325 |
General and administrative | | | | | $95 — $100 |
Net interest expense | | | | | $49 — $52 |
Income tax expense | | | | | $22 — $24 |
Net income attributable to non-controlling interests (4) | | | | | $13 — $15 |
Total capital expenditures | | | | | $280 — $300 |
决策记录链 · 只追加
每次领取产生一条记录,重新决策追加一条并以 supersedes 指向被替代的记录(ADR 0014)。
这条决策早于决策账本(2026-10-08 起逐条追加),没有追加记录。