德国2027年预算草案显示弹药采购或低于2026年，Rheinmetall面临传统弹药订单结构性降温担忧

Germany's draft 2027 budget suggests the country may spend less on munitions next year while directing more money toward other military capabilities, a potential headwind for artillery giant Rheinmetall (RNMBF)(RNMBY) even as overall defense spending continues to climb.
The proposal allocates about €9.6 billion ($10.9 billion) for munitions in 2027, down from roughly €11 billion planned for 2026, although spending would remain well above pre-rearmament levels. The figures are preliminary and could change before lawmakers approve the budget.
The budget underscores a broader shift in Europe's defense market. While governments are increasing military spending, investors are increasingly favoring companies focused on drones, air defense and military technology over traditional weapons manufacturers. For Rheinmetall, whose business is heavily tied to tanks and artillery ammunition, the proposal adds to concerns that future defense budgets may prioritize emerging technologies rather than conventional munitions.
The stock has already fallen more than 30% this year as investors reassess lofty valuations across the European defense sector. Analysts have also become more cautious after Germany canceled a naval shipbuilding contract tied to Rheinmetall and China imposed export restrictions on the company alongside other European defense firms.
The draft budget would provide roughly €7.7 billion for ammunition purchases from the regular budget, with another €1.9 billion coming from Germany's special defense fund. Although that represents a year-over-year decline from 2026, it is still more than double the amount Germany spent on munitions in 2025.
Germany's Defense Ministry cautioned that the budget remains under review but indicated that ammunition procurement will continue to be an important priority.
Even so, analysts say the proposal could reinforce expectations that future defense spending will increasingly favor drones, digital warfare and air defense systems over traditional artillery and armored vehicles. That trend has already been reflected in stock performance, with defense technology companies generally outperforming ammunition manufacturers in 2026.
Despite the recent selloff, Wall Street remains largely positive on Rheinmetall. Most analysts still recommend buying the shares, though several have lowered their price targets and are waiting for greater clarity on Germany's final defense budget and the company's updated financial outlook.