Visa与Mastercard本周财报前瞻仅提示消费与跨境支付关注点

Consumer spending drives the majority of U.S. economic growth, and investors will get a fresh dose of data when the two largest card payment network companies report earnings this week.
Visa (V) will post its fiscal Q3 earnings after the close on Tuesday, and Mastercard (MA) will disclose Q2 earnings before the open on Thursday. The reports come after American Express (AXP), a competitor in payment networks, released disappointing Q2 revenue as it acquired fewer new cards in the quarter than in the prior period.
Economists and investors have been surprised by consumers' strength since the pandemic. Total retail sales for April through June 2026 climbed 6.4% from the same period a year ago, the U.S. Census Bureau said earlier this month. To be sure, much of that increase can be attributed to inflation. During Q2, the PCE index increased 5.10%, according to the Cleveland Fed's inflation nowcast. For June, the pace slowed to 0.2% M/M from +1.0% in May.
Visa's (V) adjusted EPS for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, is expected to be $3.23, up 8.4% from a year earlier, according to the average analyst estimate. Meanwhile, Mastercard's (MA) Q2 adjusted EPS is expected to jump 15% Y/Y to $4.78.
By network volumes, Visa's payment volume is expected to increase 9.2% Y/Y to $3.95T, according to the Visible Alpha consensus, but down from $4.36T at the end of its prior fiscal quarter. Mastercard's gross dollar volume is expected to rise 8.6% Y/Y to $2.87T, up from $2.70T in Q1.
Citi analyst Bryan Keane sees cross-border as a primary operating metric to watch at both companies. Both saw cross-border volume growth decelerate in April, as disclosed in their March quarter earnings, with Mastercard's growth slowing more dramatically. Its cross-border volume rose 2% in the first four weeks of April vs. Q1's +8%, reflecting the Middle East conflict, portfolio shifts, and Easter/Ramadan timing, Citi said.
Meanwhile, Visa's (V) cross-border growth deceleration suggested "pressure was concentrated in travel rather than broad-based cross-border activity," Keane wrote. "This mix is important because cross-border e-commerce continues to grow faster than travel and should help dampen volatility from specific travel corridors."
Mastercard's (MA) cross-border volume fees, excluding foreign exchange, are projected to grow 11% Y/Y to $3.30B in Q2, while Visa's (V) cross-border volume growth on a constant currency basis is also expected to rise 11% Y/Y, according to the Visible Alpha consensus estimates.
At Visa (V), "expectations are elevated after the blowout June-Q, but the setup is tougher – out of three tailwinds from the last quarter (VAS [value-added services] strength, better FX volume, and lower incentives), only VAS strength should remain, while FX volume and incentives could be a headwind," Evercore ISI analyst Adam Frisch wrote in a note to clients.
Overall, he expects the quarter's earnings to have little impact on Visa's (V) stock "as long as investors are clear on the reality and don’t expect a similar beat as F2Q."
For Mastercard (MA), Evercore ISI's Frisch expects a "down-the-middle" Q2, with less potential for volatility linked to value-added services when compared with Visa.
For both companies, Frisch believes that the AI trade will drive their share prices in the next several months. Evercore ISI prefers Mastercard (MA) over Visa (V) on the basis that Mastercard could outperform Visa on a relative basis later this year.
SA Analyst Perseus Perspectives, who expects a "business-as-usual" beat for Visa (V), expects to hear more about AI and the company's stablecoin, tokenization, and agentic infrastructure on management's earnings call. "In terms of the narrative on the call, I expect management will continue to inform us of the build-out of their strategy in the domain of stablecoins, tokenization, and agentic payments," the analyst wrote.
Year-to-date, Visa stock has risen 3.0% while Mastercard dropped 4.2% with both lagging the S&P 500's 8.3% increase. Competing card payment network American Express (AXP) saw its stock edge fall 9.9%, while Capital One Financial's (COF) sank 15%.
Ahead of the earnings reports, Visa (V) stock gained 2.0%, and Mastercard (MA) increased 1.8% in midday trading.