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北京时间·🕒 发布 22:55:00时区推断·⟳ 抓取 22:55:51·⚡ 决策 07-28 22:56:51 +1m00s·90.9 天前
星巴克即将公布三季度财报，市场关注同店销售与利润率修复
这是一篇财报前瞻，列示市场一致预期、分析师观点和已知成本压力，没有披露新的业绩结果或指引变化。
📄 原文Seeking Alpha↗ 原文
Starbucks Q3 earnings on deck: What to expect
Starbucks (SBUX) is set to post third quarter earnings on Wednesday, with investors keeping an eye on the coffee giant’…
不做 星巴克（SBUX.US）
财报前瞻属于预期内排期信息，未披露实际业绩或指引 surprise；等待正式财报结果后再由新信号决策。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-07-28 · 扩散 medium · price-in 风险 high ↗
关键理由
- 这是一篇财报前瞻，列示市场一致预期、分析师观点和已知成本压力，没有披露新的业绩结果或指引变化。
- 文中提到股价年内已上涨约23%，反映市场已在交易CEO Brian Niccol的复苏预期，当前缺少可回测的新增超预期信息。
主要风险
- 实际财报公布后若EPS、收入、同店销售或利润率明显偏离一致预期，应由新的财报信号重新研判。
原文全文
展开原文 · 2,134 字
Starbucks (SBUX) is set to post third quarter earnings on Wednesday, with investors keeping an eye on the coffee giant’s sales growth and profitability under CEO Brian Niccol’s turnaround strategy.
Wall Street expects the Seattle-based company to post EPS of $0.65 on revenue of $9.12B, implying a decline of 3.6% during the quarter.
Starbucks, in April, recorded its third straight quarter of positive comparable sales after a streak of seven quarters in negative territory, with Niccol saying that the quarter “marked a milestone for the business.” The stock has risen 23% so far this year, outpacing the broader S&P 500 Index’s gain of over 8%. This indicates investors’ confidence in Niccol’s plan to boost sales and drive a recovery in margins.
Over the last two years, Starbucks has beaten EPS estimates 13% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 50% of the time.
“We model 3Q largely in-line with consensus (6.0% vs. Street's 6.2%). The business has momentum as comps are benefitting from incremental labor investments, store closures, sales transfer, and extended operating hours. We expect the momentum to continue as the company won't lap those comp drivers until fiscal 1Q27,” said RBC analyst Logan Reich. The brokerage added that a key topic will likely be any incremental color on the company's progress against their $2B of cost cuts over three years.
Seeking Alpha analysts and Seeking Alpha’s Quant rating are cautious and consider the stock a Hold. In contrast, Wall Street analysts rated it a Buy.
“The true test will be whether Starbucks can maintain mid/high single digit comps growth in the U.S. over a multi-quarter period: which remains to be seen. We need to also watch gross margins: coffee prices plus tariffs continue to raise the company's raw input costs, and a growing mix of delivery sales will also boost the share paid to delivery partners,” noted a recent Seeking Alpha analysis by Gary Alexander.
Over the last three months, EPS estimates have seen 15 upward revisions compared to five downward revisions, while revenue estimates have been revised upwards nine times versus 14 downward moves.
Wall Street expects the Seattle-based company to post EPS of $0.65 on revenue of $9.12B, implying a decline of 3.6% during the quarter.
Starbucks, in April, recorded its third straight quarter of positive comparable sales after a streak of seven quarters in negative territory, with Niccol saying that the quarter “marked a milestone for the business.” The stock has risen 23% so far this year, outpacing the broader S&P 500 Index’s gain of over 8%. This indicates investors’ confidence in Niccol’s plan to boost sales and drive a recovery in margins.
Over the last two years, Starbucks has beaten EPS estimates 13% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 50% of the time.
“We model 3Q largely in-line with consensus (6.0% vs. Street's 6.2%). The business has momentum as comps are benefitting from incremental labor investments, store closures, sales transfer, and extended operating hours. We expect the momentum to continue as the company won't lap those comp drivers until fiscal 1Q27,” said RBC analyst Logan Reich. The brokerage added that a key topic will likely be any incremental color on the company's progress against their $2B of cost cuts over three years.
Seeking Alpha analysts and Seeking Alpha’s Quant rating are cautious and consider the stock a Hold. In contrast, Wall Street analysts rated it a Buy.
“The true test will be whether Starbucks can maintain mid/high single digit comps growth in the U.S. over a multi-quarter period: which remains to be seen. We need to also watch gross margins: coffee prices plus tariffs continue to raise the company's raw input costs, and a growing mix of delivery sales will also boost the share paid to delivery partners,” noted a recent Seeking Alpha analysis by Gary Alexander.
Over the last three months, EPS estimates have seen 15 upward revisions compared to five downward revisions, while revenue estimates have been revised upwards nine times versus 14 downward moves.
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