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北京时间·🕒 发布 00:16:11时区推断·⟳ 抓取 00:18:19·⚡ 决策 07-29 00:19:45 +1m26s·90.7 天前
摩根大通财富管理策略师称AI交易仍处早期并看好金融板块
这是一段策略师对AI、科技股回调、金融板块和美联储预期的宏观观点采访，没有披露公司级订单、业绩、监管或供需变化。
📄 原文Seeking Alpha↗ 原文
Current stock market is in the early stages of a ‘generational trade’ – JPM’s Phil Camporeale
The market is in the early stages of a “generational trade” centered on artificial intelligence, despite recent volatil…
不做 VanEck Semiconductor ETF（SMH.US）
宏观/行业观点采访，无法证明短周期可量化新增收入、利润或订单传导，不做。
不做 Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund（XLF.US）
仅为策略师板块偏好和财报后配置观点，不是离散可交易催化，不做。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-07-28 · 扩散 medium · price-in 风险 high ↗
关键理由
- 这是一段策略师对AI、科技股回调、金融板块和美联储预期的宏观观点采访，没有披露公司级订单、业绩、监管或供需变化。
- 文中提到的SMH、SOXX、XLK、XLF及JPM、GS只是行业和市场观点例证，无法形成短周期、可量化的单一标的收入或利润传导。
主要风险
- 若后续出现具体公司订单、资本开支上修或监管变化，应作为新事件重新研判。
原文全文
展开原文 · 2,246 字
The market is in the early stages of a “generational trade” centered on artificial intelligence, despite recent volatility in tech stocks, according to Phil Camporeale, chief investment strategist at JPMorgan Wealth Management.
In an interview with CNBC, Camporeale characterized the recent pullback in semiconductor (SMH), (SOXX), (XSD), and technology shares (XLK), (VGT) as normalization rather than a warning sign.
"We still believe we're in the early stages of what is a generational trade," Camporeale said. "We write about the AI trade over the next three to five years. We write about the AI trade over the next ten to fifteen years, the positive impact on productivity."
The strategist noted that investors who entered the semiconductor trade at the beginning of last year have seen returns triple those of the broader S&P 500 (SP500) year-to-date, making these positions vulnerable to profit-taking.
He emphasized that summer market swings driven by lower liquidity do not necessarily predict performance for the rest of the year, pointing to significant retail selling last week as an example.
Camporeale described the current market dynamic as a "high-class problem," with non-tech sectors catching up in profitability.
The valuation premium of the “Magnificent Seven” tech giants over the remaining S&P 493 companies has narrowed from 30% to 10%—the lowest in a decade.
"I think it has more to do with the 493 than the 7," he explained.
The strategist expressed particular enthusiasm for the financial sector (XLF), (VFH), (IYF), citing positive revisions to earnings estimates, share buybacks, and robust capital markets activity.
He noted that both JPMorgan (JPM) and Goldman Sachs (GS) highlighted strong capital markets performance during their recent earnings reports.
On monetary policy, Camporeale argued that the 30% probability the market assigned to a Federal Reserve rate hike was "way too high."
He pointed to weaker-than-expected inflation data, a softer jobs report, and declining market-based measures of inflation since the Fed's June 17 meeting as evidence supporting his view.
"I think this is just a function of a strong and resilient economy that's leading to the profitability of non-tech sectors," he concluded.
In an interview with CNBC, Camporeale characterized the recent pullback in semiconductor (SMH), (SOXX), (XSD), and technology shares (XLK), (VGT) as normalization rather than a warning sign.
"We still believe we're in the early stages of what is a generational trade," Camporeale said. "We write about the AI trade over the next three to five years. We write about the AI trade over the next ten to fifteen years, the positive impact on productivity."
The strategist noted that investors who entered the semiconductor trade at the beginning of last year have seen returns triple those of the broader S&P 500 (SP500) year-to-date, making these positions vulnerable to profit-taking.
He emphasized that summer market swings driven by lower liquidity do not necessarily predict performance for the rest of the year, pointing to significant retail selling last week as an example.
Camporeale described the current market dynamic as a "high-class problem," with non-tech sectors catching up in profitability.
The valuation premium of the “Magnificent Seven” tech giants over the remaining S&P 493 companies has narrowed from 30% to 10%—the lowest in a decade.
"I think it has more to do with the 493 than the 7," he explained.
The strategist expressed particular enthusiasm for the financial sector (XLF), (VFH), (IYF), citing positive revisions to earnings estimates, share buybacks, and robust capital markets activity.
He noted that both JPMorgan (JPM) and Goldman Sachs (GS) highlighted strong capital markets performance during their recent earnings reports.
On monetary policy, Camporeale argued that the 30% probability the market assigned to a Federal Reserve rate hike was "way too high."
He pointed to weaker-than-expected inflation data, a softer jobs report, and declining market-based measures of inflation since the Fed's June 17 meeting as evidence supporting his view.
"I think this is just a function of a strong and resilient economy that's leading to the profitability of non-tech sectors," he concluded.
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