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北京时间·🕒 发布 02:45:44时区推断·⟳ 抓取 02:50:53·⚡ 决策 07-29 02:51:37 +44s·90.6 天前
Susquehanna 分析师称存储股“容易的钱已赚完”，建议持仓者继续持有、场外资金等待更好价格
这是一段分析师对存储板块和半导体 ETF 的战术观点，核心是“持有已有仓位、未持有者等待”，不是公司级新增订单、业绩、供需或监管催化。
📄 原文Seeking Alpha↗ 原文
‘The easy money is made, but hold onto memory stocks’ – analyst
Mehdi Hosseini, senior equity research analyst at Susquehanna International Group, is advising investors who own memory…
不做 VanEck Semiconductor ETF（SMH.US）
分析师行业观点仅建议持有已有存储敞口、场外资金等待更好价格；没有公司级新增催化或短周期可量化传导，不做。
不做 iShares Semiconductor ETF（SOXX.US）
半导体 ETF 只是正文列举的板块敞口，事件本身不是订单、业绩或价格上修确认，缺少正期望交易边界。
不做 SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF（XSD.US）
存储价格平台化和季节性回流属于行业观点，且分析师明确建议未持有者等待更好价格，当前不做。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-07-28 · 扩散 medium · price-in 风险 high ↗
关键理由
- 这是一段分析师对存储板块和半导体 ETF 的战术观点，核心是“持有已有仓位、未持有者等待”，不是公司级新增订单、业绩、供需或监管催化。
- 正文没有给出可量化的新事实，只讨论存储价格可能平台化、AI 产品组合改善和板块季节性回流，无法形成短周期同向交易边界。
主要风险
- 若后续出现存储价格实时报价上修、公司指引上调或大客户订单确认，需要按新信号重新评估存储链标的。
原文全文
展开原文 · 2,309 字
Mehdi Hosseini, senior equity research analyst at Susquehanna International Group, is advising investors who own memory stocks (SMH), (SOXX), (XSD) to hold onto their positions despite recent volatility, while recommending that those without exposure wait for better pricing over the next month or two.
The analyst shared his outlook in an interview with CNBC, noting that the current earnings season has been markedly different from three months ago when stocks would open up 5%-10% and close up 10%-20%.
Hosseini acknowledged the heightened anxiety in the market, pointing to noise from CXMT going public and concerns over China's ability to produce memory chips.
However, he identified commodity memory prices as the biggest variable, observing that prices appear to be plateauing rather than rolling over as they have historically done over the past 30 years.
"I think there is enough of a demand to help commodity prices to go sideways and not rolling over, but this is very much debatable and subjective," he said.
The analyst pointed to several indicators suggesting memory prices are reaching a ceiling, including rising memory budgets in consumer electronics.
He cited Apple (AAPL) CEO Tim Cook's recent comments about higher memory costs as a leading indicator, noting that companies throughout the supply chain are discussing their inability to pass on incremental costs associated with consumer electronics.
Looking ahead to next year, Hosseini expects artificial intelligence to diversify the product mix, which could help companies maintain reasonable margins. However, he cautioned that the investment landscape has fundamentally changed.
"The easy money is made," he said. "Now we're just going to have to be very patient and very methodical."
For investors seeking tactical guidance, Hosseini offered clear direction: "If you own memory, hold on to it."
He noted that despite giving up significant gains over the past month, these stocks are still outperforming compared to three months ago.
For those on the sidelines, he recommended patience, predicting that investors will return to the space by late summer following typical seasonal patterns.
"It's just going to be a hand to hand combat," he concluded.
Semiconductor ETFs: (SMH), (SOXX), (SOXL), (FTXL), (XSD), (USD), (PSI), and (SEMI).
The analyst shared his outlook in an interview with CNBC, noting that the current earnings season has been markedly different from three months ago when stocks would open up 5%-10% and close up 10%-20%.
Hosseini acknowledged the heightened anxiety in the market, pointing to noise from CXMT going public and concerns over China's ability to produce memory chips.
However, he identified commodity memory prices as the biggest variable, observing that prices appear to be plateauing rather than rolling over as they have historically done over the past 30 years.
"I think there is enough of a demand to help commodity prices to go sideways and not rolling over, but this is very much debatable and subjective," he said.
The analyst pointed to several indicators suggesting memory prices are reaching a ceiling, including rising memory budgets in consumer electronics.
He cited Apple (AAPL) CEO Tim Cook's recent comments about higher memory costs as a leading indicator, noting that companies throughout the supply chain are discussing their inability to pass on incremental costs associated with consumer electronics.
Looking ahead to next year, Hosseini expects artificial intelligence to diversify the product mix, which could help companies maintain reasonable margins. However, he cautioned that the investment landscape has fundamentally changed.
"The easy money is made," he said. "Now we're just going to have to be very patient and very methodical."
For investors seeking tactical guidance, Hosseini offered clear direction: "If you own memory, hold on to it."
He noted that despite giving up significant gains over the past month, these stocks are still outperforming compared to three months ago.
For those on the sidelines, he recommended patience, predicting that investors will return to the space by late summer following typical seasonal patterns.
"It's just going to be a hand to hand combat," he concluded.
Semiconductor ETFs: (SMH), (SOXX), (SOXL), (FTXL), (XSD), (USD), (PSI), and (SEMI).
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