希尔顿二季度电话会重申上调全年RevPAR预期并维持35亿美元股东回报目标

Earnings Call Insights: Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) Q2 2026
“We’re excited to report strong second quarter results with RevPAR, adjusted EBITDA, and EPS exceeding our expectations,” said (President, CEO & Director Christopher Nassetta), adding, “We remain on track to return $3.5 billion to shareholders for the full year.”
Nassetta highlighted segment and event drivers: “For the second quarter, system-wide RevPAR increased 3.9% year-over-year,” with “business transient and group both exceeded expectations” in the U.S., and “Group RevPAR was up 3.7%.” He also said leisure was “offset by unfavorable holiday shifts and pressure from the conflict in the Middle East.”
On growth and strategy, Nassetta said Hilton “achiev[ed] one of the best quarters in our history for signings,” and announced a new brand: “We launched Undergraduate by Hilton, a new upper mid-scale brand,” with “long-term expansion potential of more than 400 hotels.”
In technology and distribution, Nassetta said, “Earlier this month, we announced an industry-first direct connection with Navan,” and framed it as owner economics: “This direct connection bypasses both intermediary connections and other more expensive distribution channels, providing meaningful cost savings for our owners.”
CFO read-through of the quarter: “Adjusted EBITDA was $1.054 billion in the second quarter, up 4.6% year-over-year and exceeding the high end of our guidance range,” said (Executive VP & Chief Financial Officer Kevin Jacobs). He added, “For the quarter, diluted earnings per share adjusted for special items was $2.29.”
“We’re raising our full year system-wide RevPAR growth expectations to 3% to 3.5%,” said (CEO Nassetta), and he guided to a cadence where “third quarter [is] above our full year range” and “fourth quarter a bit below due to calendar shifts and midterm elections.”
(CFO Jacobs) gave Q3 and full-year targets “including the impact from the Middle East conflict”: “We expect system-wide RevPAR growth to be approximately 4%” in Q3, with “adjusted EBITDA to be between $1.035 billion and $1.055 billion and diluted EPS adjusted for special items to be between $2.28 and $2.34.” For 2026, he said Hilton expects “adjusted EBITDA of between $4.04 billion and $4.08 billion and diluted EPS adjusted for special items of between $8.89 and $9.01.”
Compared with Q1 guidance language, the company raised full-year RevPAR growth to “3% to 3.5%” (from “2% to 3%” previously), while maintaining net unit growth expectations at “6% to 7%.”
(CFO Jacobs) reported fee growth and profitability: “Management and franchise fees grew 6.4% year-over-year,” and “Adjusted EBITDA was $1.054 billion.”
On regional dispersion and key negatives, Jacobs said, “In the Middle East and Africa region, RevPAR decreased approximately 30% year-over-year, which was better than prior expectations,” but cautioned: “uncertainty in the recovery remains.” He also said, “RevPAR in China decreased 2.2% in the quarter, driven by a decline in group travel resulting from continued government restrictions.”
On capital return, Jacobs said, “We paid a cash dividend of $0.15 per share during the second quarter for a total of $34 million,” and reiterated, “For 2026, we expect to return approximately $3.5 billion to shareholders in the form of buybacks and dividends.”
Shaun Kelley, BofA Securities: Asked about owner health and new initiatives; (CEO Nassetta) said, “We put it in the script for a reason,” and described benefits: “The combination of those things is somewhere between 75 and 100 basis points in margin for owners,” adding, “roughly half the system right now in the United States is getting the full benefit of both of those things.”
Daniel Politzer, JPMorgan: Asked about confidence into 2027 and the Q3/Q4 RevPAR cadence; (CEO Nassetta) attributed quarterly differences to “noise,” and said, “you’re starting out at 2% to 2.5%,” then added, “I think it will be better than that.”
Elizabeth Dove, Goldman Sachs: Asked about chain-scale convergence; (CEO Nassetta) said mid-scale/upper mid-scale “going from circa like minus 2% to plus 4% to 6%,” and emphasized “midweek business transient growth” and “really strong growth in SMBs.”
Brandt Montour, Barclays: Asked why Q2 outperformance didn’t fully flow through; (CFO Jacobs) pointed to “$17 million of non-RevPAR timing items,” plus portfolio drags: “that’s $20 million to $25 million just in those 3 hotels alone,” and “Middle East… over $20 million of impact.”
David Katz, Jefferies: Asked about Waldorf Astoria Miami Beach economics; (CEO Nassetta) said, “There is… definitely key money,” and added, “the key money doesn’t change our guidance on key money.”
Steven Pizzella, Deutsche Bank: Asked about second-half net unit growth acceleration and 2027; (CFO Jacobs) said, “we have a lot of visibility,” and reiterated, “we think we can deliver 6% to 7% for the foreseeable future.”
Bennett Rose, Citi: Asked whether SMB drove group and large corporate trends; (CEO Nassetta) said, “It also definitely was a driver on the group side,” and noted corporates were “growing at like 5%.”
Robin Farley, UBS: Asked about leisure and World Cup impact; (CEO Nassetta) said, “Leisure was strong,” and quantified, “Leisure was… 1.6% up,” adding, “World Cup… like 1.5%, 1.7% was probably World Cup.”
Analysts appeared slightly positive and detail-seeking, focusing on durability of demand (“line of sight over the course of the next 18 months”), owner economics, and flow-through mechanics.
Management tone was positive and assertive on the outlook, with (CEO Nassetta) stating, “We feel really very good about the setup for the rest of this year, more importantly, the setup for the next year or two.”
Versus Q1, management spent more time on owner profitability and cost structure; analysts engaged more on the “new” owner initiatives and on guidance flow-through.
Guidance shifted upward: Q2 raised full-year “system-wide RevPAR growth expectations to 3% to 3.5%,” compared with Q1’s “2% to 3%,” while continuing to target “6% to 7% net unit growth.”
Development commentary emphasized acceleration: Q2 cited openings “up 50% from the first quarter,” signings “increasing 50% from the first quarter,” and a larger record pipeline (“541,000 rooms” vs. “527,000 rooms” in Q1).
Middle East impact worsened sequentially: Q1 described MEA RevPAR “decreased 1.7%,” while Q2 said MEA RevPAR “decreased approximately 30%,” alongside updated full-year regional expectations.
(CFO Jacobs) flagged geopolitical and regional risks: “both affected by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East,” and separately cited China pressure “resulting from continued government restrictions.”
(CEO Nassetta) pointed to leisure headwinds: “pressure from the conflict in the Middle East,” while also describing mitigation through demand mix and commercial strength.
Hilton’s management framed Q2 as an upside quarter that prompted a higher full-year RevPAR outlook (“3% to 3.5%”) while keeping net unit growth at “6% to 7%” and maintaining an expected “$3.5 billion” return of capital in 2026. The call emphasized two stock-relevant themes: demand broadening (particularly midweek business transient and SMB-driven activity) and a more explicit push to improve owner economics (loyalty fee reductions, Project RISE benefits, and additional “RISE 2” work), alongside continued development momentum and a material, ongoing drag from the Middle East conflict and China group weakness.