亿滋国际二季度电话会称全年有机销售至少增长2%但维持EPS指引

Earnings Call Insights: Mondelez International (MDLZ) Q2 2026
Management View
- "What's really driving the strong top line that we have, which was 4.4% and then also strong volume in Q2" (Chairman & CEO Dirk Van de Put).
- "We gained share in all our categories in North America" and "we're expecting a very strong second half in North America" (Chairman & CEO Van de Put).
- "We added another 100,000 stores in India" and "Brazil is now at 1 million stores" (Chairman & CEO Van de Put).
- "My initial observations reinforce my thesis on Mondelez" and "the strength of the portfolio, the strength of the team clearly stand out" (Executive VP & CFO Amit Banati).
- "We are investing much more A&C" and "we are happy with the plus 3% in gross profit dollar terms that we saw in Q2" (Executive VP & COO Luca Zaramella).
Outlook
- "You've seen us take the top line to at least plus 2%" and "from an EPS standpoint, we are maintaining our outlook" (Executive VP & CFO Banati).
- "We've been consistent that we'll invest any upside back and reinvest back into the areas where we are seeing momentum" (Executive VP & CFO Banati).
- "From a phasing standpoint between quarter 3 and quarter 4, it will be a little bit more quarter 4 back weighted" and "it will really be driven by some phasing on cocoa" (Executive VP & CFO Banati).
- "We don't see any major concerns" and "there might be more upside than the 2%, but that's why we say at least 2%" (Executive VP & COO Zaramella).
Financial Results
- "We are happy with the plus 3% in gross profit dollar terms that we saw in Q2" and "you are going to see an acceleration of the gross profit dollar number, particularly in Q3, but also in Q4" (Executive VP & COO Zaramella).
- "The EBIT in absolute dollar terms is going to be up in both Q3 and Q4, more in Q4" and "despite the material investments we are going to have in A&C, you are going to see EBIT growth in both Q3 and Q4" (Executive VP & COO Zaramella).
- "We do have incremental costs from the Middle East conflict" and "that's included in the outlook as well" (Executive VP & CFO Banati).
Q&A
- Andrew Lazar, Barclays Bank PLC: asked about confidence in emerging markets and the second-half outlook; Chairman & CEO Van de Put said "snacking... continues to perform well across the major emerging markets" and described distribution expansion including "another 100,000 stores in India" and "Brazil is now at 1 million stores," adding "it's a very structural situation. It's not cyclical."
- Andrew Lazar, Barclays Bank PLC: asked about sustainability of North America improvement; Chairman & CEO Van de Put said "we're accelerating sequentially versus Q1" and attributed performance to "disciplined promotional execution" and "innovation that's really working for us," adding "we will accelerate" reinvestment "in the second half."
- Scott Marks, Jefferies: asked CFO Banati’s early observations; Executive VP & CFO Banati said "the strength of the portfolio" and "a very advantaged emerging markets platform" stood out, and he also pointed to "opportunities on the productivity side... and in AI-enabled efficiency across the P&L." Scott Marks, Jefferies: asked about raised top-line guidance but maintained EPS; Executive VP & CFO Banati said "we'll invest any upside back" and noted Q4 earnings phasing tied to "phasing on cocoa" and "lapping... interest and tax items in quarter 3."
- Peter Galbo, BofA Securities: asked about Europe and heat wave impacts; Executive VP & COO Zaramella said Europe is "on a positive volume mix trajectory" and "Q2 is a little bit below where we would have expected it to be... mostly because we kept trade stock in control given the heat wave," while adding "I feel optimistic about the second part of the year in Europe."
- Peter Galbo, BofA Securities: asked about cocoa and coverage into 2027; Executive VP & COO Zaramella said the cocoa market is "in a very different place versus what drove the crisis" and cited "at least 0.5 million metric tons of surplus" with "industry coverage... at 10 months," adding "'27 earnings are expected to be strong" and "earnings are insulated from commodity volatility for us at least."
- Peter Grom, UBS: asked about gross margin trajectory; Executive VP & COO Zaramella said "we moved away from guiding to gross margin percentage" and emphasized "gross profit dollar is coming" and "we are happy with the gross profit dollar." Peter Grom, UBS: asked for volume-mix outlook; Executive VP & COO Zaramella responded, "I stay disciplined in not guiding too many variables" and added "it will be positive" and that "at least 2% reflects positive volume mix."
- Michael Lavery, Piper Sandler: asked for more context on "strong" 2027 EPS growth; Executive VP & COO Zaramella said "earnings are expected to be strong" supported by "accelerated productivity and cost savings" and "accelerating overhead savings... through AI." Michael Lavery, Piper Sandler: asked what is working in innovation and Biscoff; Chairman & CEO Van de Put said the collaboration has "3 layers" and concluded, "this is a collaboration that in the coming years will be worth $500 million to about $1 billion."
- David Palmer, Evercore ISI: asked whether A&C could rise and how spending priorities are shifting; Executive VP & COO Zaramella said "we think in dollar terms" and "expect better spending going forward, higher spending," while also saying "the quality of how we spend has improved dramatically" and "what AI can do, particularly to creative media" is an "important frontier." David Palmer, Evercore ISI: asked about innovation scale and distribution lift; Chairman & CEO Van de Put said "10% of your net revenue is coming from innovations that were launched in the last 3 years" and "we are there slightly above" and added, "we would like to see that go up... to potentially more like 15%."
- Christopher Carey, Wells Fargo: asked why distribution opportunities remain in North America and durability; Chairman & CEO Van de Put said value "has not been a priority" historically but "the consumer is really migrating there," and on convenience, "we've started to do more directly," while on away-from-home, "we are now doing that on a global basis." Christopher Carey, Wells Fargo: asked why guidance remains "at least 2%" despite first-half tracking; Executive VP & COO Zaramella said "we don't want to get ahead of ourselves" and pointed to "the Middle East crisis" and "the unprecedented heat wave" as uncertainties.
Sentiment Analysis
- Slightly negative analyst tone, centered on sustainability and downside risk, with repeated probing on durability and conservatism in guidance, including "how are you viewing the environment" (Peter Galbo, BofA Securities) and "why... not being a bit more forthright about a bit more upside" (Christopher Carey, Wells Fargo Securities, LLC).
- Slightly positive management tone, emphasizing execution and reinvestment, including "we are very satisfied with our results" and "we think it's going to be a strong second half for the company" (Chairman & CEO Van de Put).
- Compared with Q1, management language in Q2 kept the reinvestment framing but shifted from "reaffirm the guidance" (Executive VP & COO Luca Zaramella, Q1) to "take the top line to at least plus 2%" (Executive VP & CFO Banati, Q2), while analysts continued to focus on Europe, cocoa, and North America inflections across both calls.
Quarter-over-quarter Comparison
- Q2 introduced a CFO transition, with "Welcome, Amit" (Andrew Lazar, Barclays Bank PLC) and Executive VP & CFO Banati describing "early days" and initial focus on growth and productivity levers.
- Q2 guidance language shifted to "take the top line to at least plus 2%" (Executive VP & CFO Banati), while Q1 emphasized being "ahead of expectation in Q1" but choosing to "confirm guidance on the bottom line" amid Middle East-related costs (Executive VP & COO Zaramella, Q1).
- Q2 analyst focus leaned more into distribution expansion and channel opportunity in North America, while Q1 featured deeper emphasis on retailer negotiations and competitive dynamics in Europe.
Risks and Concerns
- "We do have incremental costs from the Middle East conflict" (Executive VP & CFO Banati).
- "In Q3, there is still an element in Europe that is related to the unprecedented heat wave" (Executive VP & COO Zaramella).
- On cocoa volatility, Executive VP & COO Zaramella said uncertainty remains but argued fundamentals are improved, citing "at least 0.5 million metric tons of surplus" and "industry coverage... at 10 months."
Final Takeaway
Management framed Q2 around stronger-than-expected momentum in emerging markets and an improving North America trajectory, paired with a raised full-year top-line outlook to at least 2% while maintaining EPS guidance and committing to reinvest upside. Executives repeatedly emphasized distribution expansion, innovation-led growth, and stepped-up A&C, while also highlighting Middle East conflict costs, European heat-wave disruptions, and cocoa-market volatility as key swing factors; longer-term, management reiterated confidence in 2027 earnings strength and positioned the Biscoff collaboration as a multi-year growth driver worth $500 million to about $1 billion.
Read the full Earnings Call Transcript