Raymond James因美国太空军采购延后下调York Space Systems评级并砍低2027-2028年预测

Raymond James downgraded York Space Systems (YSS) to Market Perform from Outperform, saying evolving U.S. Space Force procurement timelines are likely to delay revenue growth and keep pressure on investor expectations over the intermediate term.
Lead analyst Brian Gesuale removed the firm's $45 price target, which is standard practice for stocks rated Market Perform, and said Wall Street estimates remain too optimistic for the remainder of 2026. The analyst also lowered 2027 and 2028 forecasts to about 11% below current consensus.
York (YSS) shares closed at $17.81 on July 28, giving the company a market capitalization of about $2.4 billion.
Gesuale said the downgrade reflects changes in the U.S. Space Force's acquisition strategy, which has shifted toward larger and more integrated procurement programs whose award timing has slipped beyond the firm's previous assumptions.
Rather than making incremental revisions, Raymond James rebuilt its financial model using updated assumptions for contract awards, production schedules, revenue recognition and margins that better reflect the current procurement environment.
The revised outlook assumes moderately smaller aggregate contract awards, roughly one additional quarter of procurement delays and faster revenue conversion after awards as York uses pre-built satellite buses and existing manufacturing capacity.
Despite the downgrade, Gesuale said Raymond James doesn't subscribe to the broader bearish view on York's (YSS) long-term prospects.
Instead, the analyst said the revised model reflects a more realistic timeline for contract awards rather than a deterioration in the company's addressable market. Raymond James continues to expect York to generate more than 40% sales growth and secure more than $1 billion in contract awards by early 2027.
The firm now expects York (YSS) to win approximately $404 million of additional awards by the end of 2026, resulting in year-end backlog of about $635 million, followed by another $626 million of awards during the first quarter of 2027.
Raymond James lowered its 2027 revenue forecast to $771 million from $885 million and cut its 2028 projection to $982 million from $1.182 billion.
The brokerage also reduced its forecast for 2027 adjusted ebitda to $102 million from $157 million, reflecting lower revenue and weaker margins. Its 2028 adjusted ebitda estimate fell to $174 million from $261 million. The report also incorporates an increase of 7.6 million diluted shares following recent acquisitions.
Even after the estimate revisions, Raymond James said the shares trade at roughly 20x its projected 2027 enterprise value to adjusted EBITDA and about 2.9 times projected 2027 enterprise value to sales, valuations the firm believes appropriately reflect uncertainty surrounding the timing and size of future government procurement awards.