高盛恢复覆盖Steel Dynamics并给出买入评级，但股价盘中仍下跌

Steel Dynamics (STLD) down 2.4% in Wednesday's trading despite reinstatement of coverage by Goldman Sachs with a Buy rating and $300 price target, which sees the company continuing to focus on margin accretive growth investments as it also looks to reduce through-cycle earnings volatility, with the next step-change in earnings coming from the ramp-up of its aluminum business.
Goldman analyst Nick Cash sees the stock's recent pullback as an attractive entry point for investors, given Steel Dynamics' (STLD) durable through-cycle earnings power and highest return on investment capital across the bank's steel coverage, with free cash flow inflecting, trading at a 9.1% free cash flow yield compared to the historical 7.1% three-year average.
Steel Dynamics' (STLD) investment in the aluminum business is largely counter-cyclical and significantly undervalued in consensus estimates, Cash says; based on current prices, the analyst estimates aluminum business EBITDA could come in at ~$1.6B at full utilization—a milestone the company expects to reach by early 2027—and ~2.4x original company guidance of $675M at the midpoint.
The analyst also notes the Sinton flat-roll mill's strategic geographic location, which is expected to service underserved Western markets, should lead to market share capture and high utilization rates; the company's product mix focused on coated and value-added products should act as a tailwind given tighter supply dynamic relative to hot-rolled; and multiyear high scrap spreads should drive margins higher in the near-to-intermediate term, while Section 232 steel tariffs establish a higher floor for those spreads.