BNP Paribas将波音上调至跑赢大盘并把目标价提高至300美元

BNP Paribas Exane on Monday upgraded Boeing (BA) to Outperform from Underperform, arguing that years of cuts to free cash flow expectations have gone too far and that several long-running operational risks are nearing resolution.
The upgrade marks a notable shift for BNP Paribas and aerospace and defense analyst Matthew Akers. They had maintained a bearish stance on Boeing (BA) even as the aircraft maker has worked to stabilize production under Chief Executive Kelly Ortberg.
For investors, the report argues that the story is no longer about whether Boeing (BA) can survive its post-pandemic and post-737 Max crises. Instead, Akers says the focus should shift toward how much cash the company can generate once aircraft certifications, inventory reductions and defense program losses stop weighing on results. If that transition unfolds as expected, he said Wall Street estimates will need to move higher.
Akers said consensus forecasts for 2027 free cash flow have fallen by roughly $4 billion over the past two years, with cumulative 2024 through 2028 expectations reduced by about $24 billion.
He argues those revisions have reached an inflection point. BNP Paribas increased its own 2027 free cash flow forecast to $7 billion, about $1 billion above Wall Street's consensus, driven by higher production, inventory liquidation and lower cash taxes than previously modeled.
Among the expected tailwinds are accelerating production of the 737 Max and 787 Dreamliner, liquidation of completed Max 7 and Max 10 aircraft awaiting certification, lower cash burn on the delayed 777X program and a year-over-year benefit after an anticipated Department of Justice settlement payment.
The report contends that the next year should substantially reduce uncertainty surrounding Boeing (BA).
Akers expects certification of the 737 Max 7, 737 Max 10 and 777X, allowing Boeing (BA) to deliver aircraft currently sitting in inventory while improving production stability. He also said he expects leverage to decline to roughly 2 times normalized earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization by 2027, returning to levels seen before the pandemic.
The analyst said those developments could finally push Boeing (BA) shares out of the roughly $150 to $250 trading range where they have remained for much of the post-Covid period.
BNP Paribas also argues that investors are overestimating the risk of additional large charges on the 777X program.
While recent headlines about scrapping an early-production aircraft raised concerns, Akers said Boeing's (BA) accounting appears to have already captured the known risks. He added that management under Ortberg has already recognized about $7.5 billion in 777X-related charges, making further major surprises less likely.
At the same time, the report expects losses from Boeing's (BA) fixed-price defense development programs to continue declining, allowing investors to refocus on the stronger cash generation potential of the commercial aircraft business.
Looking beyond the next two years, BNP Paribas forecasts Boeing (BA) could generate about $16 billion of free cash flow by 2030, above management's long-term target of high single-digit billions and well above current expectations.
The bank raised its price target to $300 from $230, implying about 39% upside from Boeing's (BA) July 31 closing price of $216.14. BNP Paribas also outlined a longer-term scenario in which the shares could reach about $450 by the end of the decade, roughly double current levels.
The firm's valuation assumes Boeing (BA) deserves a discount to other aerospace companies, but argues that even with that discount, improving cash generation supports a $300 12-month target and potentially $450 later this decade if production ramps, inventory normalization and operating leverage play out as expected.
BNP Paribas also outlined a bull case with a $385 12-month valuation if 777X cash burn improves more quickly and 737 production reaches historical highs. Its bear case calls for $180 if supply chain problems persist and additional 777X costs emerge.