万豪Q2业绩会称RevPAR高于预期并上调2026年指引

Earnings Call Insights: Marriott International (MAR) Q2 2026
Management View
- "We reported a very strong second quarter this morning with RevPAR and financial results above our prior expectations," said CEO Anthony Capuano, adding, "We grew net rooms by 4.5% over the 12 months ending June 30" and "further expanding our industry-leading global portfolio to over 1.8 million rooms across more than 10,000 properties."
- "Second quarter global RevPAR rose 3.4%," CEO Anthony Capuano said, including "RevPAR in the U.S. and Canada region rose 5%" and "Luxury and resort hotels continued to lead" with "luxury RevPAR up over 9%," while "strength was pervasive across chain scales with select service RevPAR increasing over 4%."
- On international trends, CEO Anthony Capuano said "second quarter international RevPAR declined slightly year-over-year" with "RevPAR in EMEA declined just over 5%" as "Middle East RevPAR declined 43%," while "Second quarter RevPAR in APEC rose over 5%" and "RevPAR in Greater China rose over 3%" as hotels "continued to gain share."
- On development and conversions, CEO Anthony Capuano said, "we experienced record global signings in the first half of the year" and "Our global pipeline grew nearly 7% year-over-year to a new record of approximately 629,000 rooms," with "Conversions... representing 34% of signings and 40% of openings in the first half of the year."
- On strategic announcements, CEO Anthony Capuano said, "we recently executed new long-term agreements for our co-branded credit card program in the U.S. with... JPMorgan Chase and American Express" and added, "In June, we began our phased rollout of Ask Bonvoy, our AI-powered conversational search experience on marriott.com and the Marriott Bonvoy app."
- CFO Jennifer Mason said, "Second quarter total gross fee revenues increased 13% year-over-year to $1.58 billion," "Adjusted EBITDA increased 13% to $1.59 billion" and "adjusted diluted EPS rose 20% to $3.19," while noting "Owned, leased and other revenue... totaled $49 million compared to $78 million... primarily due to a $27 million property-related litigation accrual as well as lower termination fees."
Outlook
- CFO Jennifer Mason said, "We are raising our full year global RevPAR guidance to 3% to 3.5% growth" and "Third quarter global RevPAR is expected to increase 3.5% to 4%." (The provided analysts estimates JSON uses a different quarter format than required here and is not used for comparisons.)
- On regional puts and takes, CFO Jennifer Mason said, "In Greater China, full year RevPAR is expected to be up 2% to 3%," while "EMEA is expected to continue to be impacted by the conflict in the Middle East, though to a lesser extent than previously anticipated."
- CEO Anthony Capuano updated rooms growth expectations: "Our full year 2026 net rooms growth is now more likely to be towards the low end of our previous 4.5% to 5% range, primarily due to construction delays in the Middle East."
Financial Results
- CFO Jennifer Mason guided to higher fee and profit ranges: "For the full year, gross fee revenues could rise 11% to $6.03 billion to $6.06 billion" and "Full year adjusted EBITDA could increase between 11% and 12% to $5.97 billion to $6.03 billion."
- On incentive fees and credit cards, CFO Jennifer Mason said "IMF are now expected to rise 3% to 5% year-over-year" and "The expected incremental impact to our 2026 co-branded credit card fees solely from a partial year of the new terms... is approximately $30 million."
- On capital return and spending, CFO Jennifer Mason said, "We now expect 2026 investment spending to be $1.25 billion to $1.35 billion" and "We now expect to return over $4.5 billion to shareholders in 2026."
Q&A
- Shaun Kelley, BofA: Asked about owner reinvestment and the new ITR program; CEO Anthony Capuano said, "We're very focused on hotel level economics" and CFO Jennifer Mason said, "It's up to 50 basis points of gross room revenue, fee reimbursement for achieving defined ITR thresholds" and "will start to be baked in for the back half of the year."
- Stephen Grambling, Morgan Stanley: Asked how co-brand economics ramp; CEO Anthony Capuano said, "by full year 2028, the impact on Marriott's co-brand card fees from these new deals could be somewhere between $100 million and $125 million" and CFO Jennifer Mason added, "the majority of the benefits do go into our loyalty program."
- Raymond Bowers, Wells Fargo: Asked about fee growth offsets; CFO Jennifer Mason cited "FX headwinds" in Japan and said "Q4 RevPAR is a bit lower than Q3" due to World Cup lapping and Middle East seasonality, adding, "It's something like 35% of the Middle East full year revenue happens in Q4."
- Michael Bellisario, Baird: Asked about 2027 rooms growth and developer appetite; CEO Anthony Capuano said the low-end tilt is "driven by... project delays in the Middle East" and pointed to demand for the brands: "we signed more deals in the first half of 2026, than in any first half of the year ever."
- Daniel Politzer, JPMorgan: Asked about higher investment spend, key money, and tech transformation; CEO Anthony Capuano said, "key money seems to be the weapon of choice" and CFO Jennifer Mason said, "We're still in the early phases of deployment" with "over 2,000 select service... hotels that have transitioned."
- Elizabeth Dove, Goldman Sachs: Asked about mix into year-end and 2027; CFO Jennifer Mason said, "we continue to expect all segments to be up for the full year with leisure continuing to lead" and CEO Anthony Capuano said, "we continue to be quite bullish on the global outlook" while noting "the challenge of the comp of the World Cup next year."
- Charles Scholes, Truist: Asked for an official response to an owner letter; CEO Anthony Capuano said, "I'm not going to give an official response" and added, "we have had a number of meetings already with that group... and are encouraged with the progress we're making."
- David Katz, Jefferies: Asked about platform fees/reimbursements and P&L impact; CEO Anthony Capuano said, "our guidance is reflective of our expectations of the impact of those discussions on Marriott's P&L going forward."
- Duane Pfennigwerth, Evercore ISI: Asked about credit-card timing and Middle East impact; CFO Jennifer Mason said, "the $30 million of incremental fees is for 2 quarters of 2026" and "we are now expecting the impact to our full year global RevPAR to be about 100 basis points" (vs. last quarter’s "between 100 and 125 basis points").
Sentiment Analysis
- Slightly negative analyst tone centered on owner relations and fee structure transparency, including Truist pressing for "a specific official public response" and Jefferies asking for "understanding how much you're doing that passes through versus how much you're taking on."
- Slightly positive management tone with firm boundary-setting on owner matters ("I'm not going to give an official response") and confidence on forward items like co-brand ramp ("by full year 2028... $100 million and $125 million") and demand ("we continue to be quite bullish on the global outlook").
- Versus Q1 2026, the Q2 discussion elevated owner-friction topics (letters, platform fees) and shifted from “new deals later this year” to executed U.S. co-brand agreements and quantified fee impact.
Quarter-over-Quarter Comparison
- Guidance language tightened upward: Q1 raised full-year global RevPAR to "2% to 3%"; Q2 raised it again to "3% to 3.5%."
- Co-brand narrative moved from negotiations to signed agreements: Q1 CFO Jennifer Mason said, "we still expect to have new deals in place later this year"; Q2 CEO Anthony Capuano said Marriott "executed new long-term agreements" and management quantified "approximately $30 million" 2026 fee impact and a 2028 range.
- Middle East framing improved modestly: Q1 assumed a "100 to 125 basis points" full-year global RevPAR impact; Q2 CFO Jennifer Mason said it is now "about 100 basis points."
- Analyst focus broadened from demand and AI in Q1 toward owner economics, fee allocations, and public responses to owner communications in Q2.
Risks and Concerns
- CEO Anthony Capuano cited geopolitical risk: "With the conflict in the Middle East weighing on results" and described the regional hit as "Middle East RevPAR declined 43%." CFO Jennifer Mason added EMEA remains impacted, with performance expected to vary by quarter due to "difficult comparisons" in Q4 2025.
- CFO Jennifer Mason outlined P&L headwinds embedded in 2026 expectations, including "a slower expected ramp-up of Marriott Media Networks" and "the second quarter litigation accrual," while the new ITR incentive is "paid for by Marriott and not the system fund" and will be recorded in "owned, leased and other expenses."
Final Takeaway
Management characterized Q2 as an above-expectations quarter and raised full-year 2026 global RevPAR growth guidance to 3% to 3.5%, alongside higher full-year gross fee and adjusted EBITDA ranges. Leadership emphasized record development signings and a conversion-heavy growth engine, while also detailing owner-economics initiatives such as the new ITR incentive and reduced loyalty charge-outs. The call’s biggest incremental financial catalyst was executed U.S. co-branded credit card agreements with Chase and American Express, with management quantifying a partial-year 2026 uplift and a larger fee ramp by 2028, while reiterating that Middle East conflict impacts remain a key swing factor in the back half of the year.
Read the full Earnings Call Transcript