J.P. Morgan上调LyondellBasell评级但同步下调2026和2027年盈利预测

J.P. Morgan on Monday upgraded LyondellBasell Industries (LYB) to Overweight from Neutral, saying the petrochemical producer is entering a period of strong cash generation and balance sheet improvement that isn't fully reflected in its valuation despite expectations that earnings will moderate from recent highs.
The upgrade comes even as J.P. Morgan reduced its earnings forecasts. The firm cut its 2026 adjusted earnings estimate by 19% to $9.55 a share and lowered its 2027 forecast by 24% to $7.95 a share, reflecting expectations that current earnings will normalize after benefiting from elevated oil prices and supply disruptions tied to conflict in the Middle East.
For investors, the report argues that the market is focusing too heavily on the expected earnings slowdown while overlooking the company's improving financial position and valuation.
"Lyondell is currently earning above its normalized earnings level," analysts led by Jeffrey Zekauskas wrote, estimating second-quarter earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of $2.1 billion annualizes to $8.4 billion compared with what they view as normalized ebitda of roughly $5 billion. They expect stronger free cash flow to reduce the company's net debt-to-ebitda ratio to about 1.7 times in 2026, down sharply from 3.7 times in 2025.
J.P. Morgan expects third-quarter ebitda to decline to roughly $1.6 billion from $2.1 billion in the second quarter as polyethylene prices soften and scheduled maintenance outages reduce production at facilities in Lake Charles, Louisiana, and Clinton, Iowa. Those turnarounds are expected to reduce earnings from the company's U.S. olefins and polyolefins business by about $125 million during the quarter.
The analysts expect some of that weakness to be offset by a recovery in the Intermediates and Derivatives segment after a fire at the company's Bayport, Texas propylene oxide facility weighed on second-quarter results. Segment ebitda is projected to improve to about $575 million in the third quarter from $355 million in the second quarter, although European olefins and polyolefins earnings are expected to weaken as product prices fall and raw material costs rise.
J.P. Morgan said the stock's valuation provides a cushion even under a more pessimistic outlook. In what it described as a "Goldilocks" scenario, tensions in the Middle East ease, oil prices retreat toward $70 per barrel, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes and petrochemical production recovers. Under those conditions, the firm estimates LyondellBasell could generate about $4 billion of ebitda, which at a 6.5-times multiple would support a valuation near the current share price while investors continue collecting a dividend yield of roughly 4.4%.
The report values LyondellBasell (LYB) using a normalized 2028 ebitda estimate of about $5 billion, assigning an enterprise value multiple of roughly 6 times ebitda, equivalent to an approximately 10% free cash flow yield. J.P. Morgan estimates that every one-turn change in the company's ebitda multiple is worth about $15 a share.
J.P. Morgan cautioned that the investment remains sensitive to commodity markets. A significant decline in oil prices could compress petrochemical margins, while higher U.S. natural gas or ethane prices could erode the company's cost advantage. The bank also warned that slower economic recoveries in Europe or China could weigh on demand for LyondellBasell's products.
The bank raised its price target to $80 from $75, arguing the shares offer an attractive risk-reward profile after trading around $62.08 at Friday's close. J.P. Morgan said the stock trades at roughly 5 to 5.5 times forward ebitda, below what it views as fair value for a company capable of generating free cash flow yields of 12% to 14%.