SocGen称美债10年期收益率再升50-60bp才会显著挑战美股

Stocks have outperformed bonds for four-straight years, but Société Générale says another roughly 50-60 basis-point rise in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield could make bonds materially more competitive with equities.
Manish Kabra, SocGen’s U.S. equity strategist, and Praveen Singh, senior global asset allocation strategist, said the longer-term backdrop still favors corporates over sovereign bonds. But they see a clear threshold where the relative-value argument starts to change.
The strategists said bond yields tend to track nominal GDP over longer periods. In the U.S., nominal growth bottomed almost a decade ago and the policy mix since then, including lower taxes, higher tariffs, rising debt and wider deficits, has shifted the economy toward a higher nominal-growth and higher-yield regime.
Cyclically, Treasury yields have broadly tracked business activity, with moves in the 10-year yield close to levels implied by ISM manufacturing confidence. But SocGen noted that unusually sharp increases in yields during cyclical upswings have historically been associated with major market events and defaults.
The key question for equities is how high yields need to rise before they begin to pose a more serious threat.
SocGen said it has consistently argued that threshold is higher than many investors expect. In May, the firm said a 5% 10-year yield was a better proxy for equity stress than the then-prevailing market consensus of 4.5%.
Based on SocGen’s U.S. equity risk premium framework, another 50-60bp rise in the 10-year yield (US10Y) would push the risk premium toward what the strategists call the 3% “danger zone.”
At that point, bonds would become cyclically more attractive relative to equities (SPY) (IVVO (VOO) (QQQ) (DIA).
SocGen continues to favor a 60-20-20 asset allocation, with 60% in corporates, including equities and credit (LGQ) (HYG) (JNK), 20% in commodities (DBC) (COMT) and 20% in bonds (SGOV) (GOVT) (SHY) (IEI) (IEF) (TBT) (TLT).
The strategists said accelerating AI capex and loose financial conditions continue to support corporate risk. They also favor buying dips in gold (GLD), arguing that the higher nominal-growth environment, rising debt and wider fiscal deficits remain supportive for commodities.
SocGen remains underweight bonds relative to equities for now, but reiterated that another 50-60bp rise in the U.S. 10-year yield would make bonds more attractive.
Within equities, the firm continues to favor market broadening and the equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP), a call it has maintained for roughly 18 months. SocGen is also overweight Industrials (XLI), Utilities (XLU) and Materials (XLB), and expects Financials (XLF) and consumer stocks (XLY) (XLP) to catch up in the second half of 2026.