日本下周国债拍卖或加大全球长端利率压力

Two Japanese government bond auctions next week could test efforts to bring down longer-term U.S. Treasury yields, Bloomberg reported, as investors demand greater compensation to hold government debt globally.
Japan is scheduled to sell 10-year bonds on Sept. 1 and 30-year securities on Sept. 3. Weak demand at either auction could push Japanese yields higher and make local bonds more attractive to investors, potentially adding pressure to U.S. Treasuries, Bloomberg said.
The link between the Japanese and U.S. bond markets has strengthened as both markets contend with rising government debt and greater volatility. A surge in Japan’s super-long yields last year also spilled into Treasuries, highlighting the potential for renewed fiscal concerns to create a broader “doom loop.”
“Markets will be watching the coming JGB auctions very closely,” Andrew Ticehurst, senior rates strategist at Nomura Holdings in Sydney, told Bloomberg. He said poor auction results could lift JGB yields and make them more attractive to Japanese investors, potentially putting further upward pressure on Treasury yields.
Fiscal concerns have recently driven a selloff across major government bond markets. The U.S. 30-year yield (US30Y) reached its highest level since 2007, while German long-term borrowing costs hit a 15-year high and French yields reached their highest since 2008. Japanese yields were also approaching record levels, Bloomberg reported.
The developments came after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced plans to expand buybacks of longer-maturity Treasuries to ease pressure on long-term yields. The rally that followed was short-lived, with yields resuming their climb a day later.
Japan’s 20-year bond auction on Aug. 20 attracted decent demand, but yields have risen since then, with the 20-year yield hovering near its highest level since 1996.