摩根士丹利称铜价回调是买入机会但短线已充分交易

Copper prices have shown signs of strain after surging to record levels, but Morgan Stanley sees the recent weakness as temporary and views pullbacks as potential buying opportunities.
The bank said strong import demand from the U.S. and China had tightened the market, pushing LME copper inventories lower and driving the cash-3-month spread to its highest level since 2021.
Morgan Stanley said elevated prices have begun to curb demand in key markets. U.S. copper imports have slowed after the steep LME backwardation effectively closed the spot import arbitrage, while China's import arbitrage has flipped toward exports. China's implied refined copper imports fell 12.5% year over year in July after rising 3.8% in the second quarter, while the Yangshan physical premium has also declined.
The bank also pointed to a rebuilding of LME inventories as another indication that the market is beginning to loosen at the margin. LME on-warrant inventories increased by 64 kilotons in the three days through Aug. 19, marking the largest weekly inflow since 2020, as traders took advantage of elevated nearby prices and cheaper longer-dated contracts.
Still, Morgan Stanley expects China's demand weakness to be short-lived, arguing that buying activity should return once prices stabilize or correct. The bank identified the U.S. copper tariff decision as the key second-half catalyst, with the impact on prices depending heavily on whether tariffs are delayed, implemented immediately, ruled out or deferred.
Morgan Stanley maintained its fourth-quarter LME copper price target of $14,250 per ton, while noting that prices could overshoot that level if macro conditions improve or a delayed tariff implementation triggers another rush of shipments into the U.S.
However, the bank is more cautious heading into 2027, when U.S. import demand could weaken and additional mine supply growth could leave the market better supplied.