美银上调Suzano至买入，理由是纸浆市场接近周期底部

Bank of America Securities upgraded Suzano (SUZ) to Buy from Neutral, saying the global pulp market appears close to reaching a cyclical bottom as order activity improves and the industry enters a seasonally stronger period.
Caio Ribeiro, an analyst at BofA Securities, raised his price objective for Suzano to 66 Brazilian reais a share, equivalent to $13 per American depositary receipt.
“Following our latest conversations with industry contacts, we are increasingly convinced that the pulp price bottom is near,” Ribeiro said in a research report.
Pulp order books improved in July and remained healthy in August, according to the analyst. Low inventories among buyers and stronger seasonal demand beginning in September should help prices recover.
BofA raised its forecast for the bottom in hardwood pulp prices to $550 a metric ton from $520. The firm now expects the average hardwood pulp price in China to reach $581 a ton in 2026, compared with its prior forecast of $563.
The anticipated price recovery should help reverse recent pressure on Suzano’s earnings, Ribeiro said. The company’s cost outlook also suggests improved performance during the second half of the year.
Suzano has guided for production costs of 800 reais a ton in 2026, below the 820 to 825 reais a ton reported during the first half.
The company could receive another boost if the Brazilian real weakens around the country’s elections. Suzano incurs much of its cost base in local currency while selling pulp in dollars, making currency depreciation potentially beneficial to its earnings.
Valuation also supports the upgrade. BofA estimates that Suzano offers a 14% free-cash-flow yield for 2027, which Ribeiro described as compelling even under the firm’s cautious assumptions for long-term pulp prices.
“The combination of a cyclical price inflection, improving earnings momentum, potential FX tailwinds and attractive valuation creates a favorable near-term risk-reward,” Ribeiro said.
BofA emphasized that its upgrade reflects a cyclical opportunity rather than a more optimistic structural view of the pulp industry.
Higher production costs across the industry should provide greater support for prices near the bottom of the cycle. However, weak profit margins for paper producers and the arrival of additional pulp-making capacity could limit the strength and duration of the recovery.
Ribeiro expects pulp prices to rebound from current levels but sees about $600 a ton as a possible ceiling. The firm therefore made only modest revisions to its forecasts despite becoming more constructive about the immediate outlook.
BofA maintained Buy ratings on Klabin (KLBAY) and Dexco. Ribeiro said Klabin benefits from lower pulp-price volatility, disciplined capital allocation, debt reduction and potential growth in fluff pulp.
Dexco’s investment case is supported by operational improvements, stronger cash generation and the possible sale or monetization of assets. Those factors should help reduce leverage while the company continues to trade at a discounted valuation, according to BofA.
The firm remains more cautious about CMPC and Copec, rating both Underperform.
CMPC’s high exposure to pulp prices and the substantial funding requirements for its Natureza project create an unfavorable risk-reward profile under BofA’s conservative long-term outlook.
Copec faces a similar challenge from the capital required for its Sucuriú project. Ribeiro expects the investment to produce significant cash burn and higher leverage, potentially preventing shareholders from realizing the full benefit of a near-term pulp-price recovery.