Jefferies称Workday若被收购仍有上行，但未带来新的交易进展

As rumors swirl about private equity firm SilverLake acquiring back office software provider Workday (WDAY), investment firm Jefferies believes there's more upside for investors if a deal happens.
“We think a takeout makes sense at 5x rev/16x FCF, in line with the peer median,” Jefferies analyst Brent Thill wrote in a note to clients. “We note co-founders Aneel Bhusri and David Duffield's influence in any decision: together they own ~46M shares (incl. Class A+B), representing $9.2B/19% of mkt cap. Duffield alone owns ~15%, ~3x the largest institutional holder (BlackRock). Should a deal not go through, we see ~15% downside (3.5x rev/11x FCF). Though we question where growth would come from, going private could help WDAY accelerate its AI transition, eventually driving rev reacceleration. Neither [company] has commented on Reuters' 8/13 report on takeover talks.”
Thill has a Hold rating on Workday and upped his price target to $225 from $205.
Workday is set to report its upcoming quarterly results after the close of trading on Aug. 27, and Thill is expecting an “in-line” report. However, the bigger questions will be if Workday can sustain low-teens growth or if AI can generate more than $500M in revenue.
“We believe WDAY can sustainably grow low double-digits, close to end-mkt growth at 11%,” Thill added. “AI is early and we think WDAY lacks a breakout product to accel rev + take share from SAP/ORCL.”
He continued: “Our expert believes monetization is a 2027/2028 event (only one of his customers has Sana). Positively, he says the AI vision is becoming clearer, [with] Sana expected to serve as a much-needed UI upgrade at WDAY. Since Sana only started going GA in March, we think inflection will take time.”