Cantor继续看多美股和科技股，称AI资本开支将推动盈利预期上修

Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Eric Johnston remains bullish on U.S. equities (SPY) (DIA) (QQQ) heading into year-end, with technology stocks (XLK) expected to lead the market higher. The firm's outlook hinges on continued upward revisions to earnings estimates and strong underlying economic growth, with AI (AIQ) (AIEQ) capital expenditure serving as the primary catalyst for gains.
The AI infrastructure buildout continues to drive S&P 500 (SPY) earnings estimates to new heights. Forward four-quarter estimates have now climbed above $389, powered by sustained AI-related capital spending from hyperscalers (META) (MSFT) (GOOG) (GOOGL) (ORCL) (AMZN) and technology infrastructure companies, Johnston wrote in a note.
He contended that current estimates for the third and fourth quarters of 2026 remain far too conservative, pointing to second-quarter year-over-year earnings growth north of 30% as evidence that upward revisions have further room to run.
On the rates front, Cantor projected the bond market (TLT) (TLH) (IEF) (SHY) (ZROZ) will calm from current levels. The recent move higher in yields has been driven almost entirely by rising real yields and term premium rather than inflation expectations—a dynamic Johnston attributes to increased corporate debt issuance for AI buildouts and uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh.
Notably, inflation expectations have remained anchored despite higher oil (USO) (BNO) prices. Johnston advised market participants against betting against the Treasury, which has signaled its commitment to fighting higher yields through an operation twist that increases long-end purchases. With the 10-year yield (US10Y) just 37 basis points above its three-year average, he sees little risk of the current rate environment derailing AI data center investment plans, he wrote.
Despite the yield surge, financial conditions remain at some of the easiest levels in the past 30 years, providing a continued tailwind for economic activity. The futures market has moved toward Cantor's view that the Fed will continue to hold rates steady, with fed funds futures now pricing in just one hike for the year and only a 39% probability of a September increase.
Three-month core CPI is running below 2% on an annualized basis, reinforcing Cantor's conviction that even if the central bank does tighten, it will not mark the beginning of a hiking cycle. "We think equities will work higher through this," Johnston noted, even as midterm-year seasonality presents near-term headwinds for August and September.