Baird上调Darden、下调Chipotle/Domino's/Black Rock Coffee并重排餐饮股偏好

Using unit economics, development runway, disciplined unit growth, and sustainable same-store sales as key criteria, a team of Baird analysts led by Chris O’Cull changed their outlook for Darden Restaurant (DRI), Chipotle (CMG), Domino’s (DPZ), and Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB) and named CAVA Group (CAVA), Brinker International (EAT), Starbucks (SBUX), and Dutch Bros (BROS) as the firm’s highest-conviction picks.
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) “may need to spend more to grow less,” Baird’s analyst team writes. By this, the team believes that greater reinvestment and thus slower margin recovery will be required to generate low-single-digit comparable store sales versus the mid-single-digit growth that the company has historically achieved.
“We still like the business but are less convinced the stock deserves a premium-growth valuation,” O’Cull and team write in their note, but downgraded the stock to Neutral from Outperform with a new, lowered $40 price target.
Without a catalyst for meaningful multiple expansion, Domino’s (DPZ) shares are near the firm’s $350 price target. With a Neutral rating, O’Cull and team remain confident in Domino’s (DPZ) ability to gain shares in the quick-service pizza segment and have a positive view of the asset-light business but see the risk/reward as balanced given lingering concerns related to the pizza category and tough environment for low-income consumers.
Domino's (DPZ) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform with an unchanged $350 price target.
Black Rock Coffee (BRCB) has attractive unit economics and solid fundamentals, but concerns over the “increasingly competitive landscape” fuel Baird’s downgrade to Neutral.
“7 Brew and Dutch Bros. are much larger and scaling aggressively, and our research suggests first-to-market matters. Additionally, improving Starbucks momentum could slow gains for its challengers.”
Black Rock Coffee (BRCB) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform with a new, lowered, $10 price target.
For Darden Restaurants (DRI), the stock is now rated as Outperform as the company is now viewed as a “core casual dining holding company with reliable top-line drivers, strong execution, and a durable growth algorithm.”
“We have a favorable view of Darden’s internal fundamentals (solid execution) and diversified portfolio of brands, as well as consistently delivers 10-15% total shareholder returns,” O’Cull et al. added.
Darden Restaurants (DRI) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral with a new, higher price target of $250.