Seeking Alpha转述债券风险回报改善观点，但未带来新的利率或ETF催化

Bonds have emerged as the “most hated asset class in the world,” according to Ben Carlson of A Wealth of Common Sense, as investors remain wary of elevated government debt, persistent inflation and the prospect of further interest-rate increases.
Carlson argues that the bearish case for fixed income is understandable, particularly after the severe losses suffered during the 2022-23 rate-hiking cycle. The Federal Reserve lifted rates from near zero to above 5% in just 12 months, sending the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index down nearly 20% and long-duration Treasurys sharply lower.
Yet Carlson points out that much of the damage has already occurred, while bond yields are now considerably more attractive than they were through much of the 2010s and early 2020s. Long-term bond yields are at their highest levels since 2007, creating a larger income cushion for investors.
Despite rates rising again this year, the higher starting yields have helped limit losses, with the Aggregate index essentially flat for the year and 10-year Treasurys only slightly lower. Long-duration bonds, meanwhile, are down roughly 3%.
The more interesting setup, Carlson argues, comes from the possibility that rates eventually move lower. A weaker economy, falling inflation or an end to the current war could push yields down, creating gains for bondholders through both income and price appreciation.
Because bond prices move inversely to yields, a decline in rates would provide a boost to fixed-income returns, while higher yields would generate additional income that could help offset price declines.
Carlson also highlights the role of convexity, which can make the potential payoff from falling yields larger than the potential loss from an equivalent rise in yields. Using the 10-year Treasury as an example, he estimates that a 100-basis-point decline in rates could result in roughly a 12% total return over the following 12 months, including price appreciation and income.
A comparable 100-basis-point increase, by contrast, could produce a loss of a little more than 2%.
For now, bonds remain overshadowed by a strong equity market and the enthusiasm surrounding higher-growth assets, particularly AI stocks. But Carlson argues that the appeal of high-quality fixed income could become much clearer during the next recession or equity bear market, when falling rates could drive bond prices higher.
The timing remains uncertain, he acknowledges, but the combination of elevated yields and potential downside protection could make bonds more compelling than current market sentiment suggests.
Bond ETFs: (AGG), (BND), (VCIT), (MUB), (MBB), (JNK), (LQD), and (HYG)