法国兴业策略师警告中国信用脉冲下滑或拖累美股盈利动能

Investors fixated on record-high equity markets and rising bond yields may be overlooking a more troubling signal from China, according to Société Générale strategist Albert Edwards.
A sharp deterioration in China’s credit impulse, which measures the change in credit growth as a percentage of gross domestic product, could foreshadow weaker U.S. corporate earnings and stock-market returns, Edwards said in an Aug. 25 report.
“I believe the chart below is possibly the most important macro chart at the moment, certainly relative to the lowly attention it is getting,” Edwards wrote.
China’s credit impulse has historically led year-over-year returns for the S&P 500 by about 12 months, the report showed. Its recent decline therefore raises the possibility that the U.S. market’s powerful earnings momentum will lose steam.
“Ignoring China’s recent monetary tightening could prove to be the biggest investment mistake of the decade,” Edwards said.
China once commanded the attention of global investors, with virtually every economic release capable of moving financial markets. That interest has faded as the country’s property slump and sluggish economic recovery have dragged on.
Edwards argued that the collective shrug is dangerous. New bank lending in China is falling at its steepest pace of the decade, while the country’s housing data has been described by Société Générale economists as “hopeless.”
Chinese officials have pledged incremental support, but Chief China Economist Wei Yao said its deployment has been too slow and modest. Significant stimulus is unlikely unless conditions deteriorate considerably, leaving China in what she described as a “controlled collapse, as long as the AI boom persists.”
The durability of that AI boom could be especially important for U.S. investors. Earnings growth has been unusually strong for an economy that has not recently emerged from a recession, helping propel stock prices to new highs.
“The $64,000 question is what happens when this momentum starts to fade?” Edwards wrote.
The potential transmission mechanism extends beyond financial-market liquidity. Edwards showed that changes in Chinese credit growth have historically tracked U.S. analysts’ earnings revisions, American manufacturing activity and global industrial commodity prices.
A declining credit impulse could therefore signal weaker demand and fading optimism across several cyclical indicators. Edwards acknowledged that correlation does not necessarily prove causation but warned investors against dismissing the relationships.
“You would ignore these charts at your peril,” he wrote.
China’s policymakers have so far tolerated economic weakness as part of an effort to contain the excesses created by the country’s housing boom. Unlike Japan during its long deflationary period, China has not flooded global markets with exceptionally loose money.
At the same time, China appears to be exporting some inflation to the United States through higher import prices. Rising fuel costs are adding to that pressure, although falling U.S. unit labor costs have helped restrain core inflation.
Edwards said he remains relatively unconcerned about the immediate U.S. inflation outlook. His bigger concern is that investors are assuming financial conditions remain exceptionally loose while missing the contraction underway in one of the world’s most influential credit engines.
Société Générale’s defensive asset allocation reflects that caution. The firm assigns a 30% weight to equities, compared with an index-neutral allocation of 60%. It holds 50% in bonds and 20% in cash, above neutral weights of 35% and 5%, respectively.
For investors celebrating new market highs, Edwards’ message is straightforward: China may no longer dominate the financial news cycle, but its shrinking credit impulse could still determine what happens next on Wall Street.