HP盘前跌约11%：Q3利润率与PC出货量下滑引发担忧，分析师维持谨慎评级

Shares of HP (HPQ) fell about 11% premarket on Thursday amid concerns over a decline in margins and PC unit shipments following its fiscal third quarter results.
"Looking ahead to the remainder of our fiscal year, we continue to expect input costs to rise, putting near-term pressure on our operating margins, particularly in Personal Systems. We are factoring that into our Q4 outlook, along with the traction we are making on our cost mitigation plans. By segment, in Personal Systems, we remain aligned with industry experts projecting the PC unit TAM to decline high teens year-over-year for the second half of the calendar year," said HP's CFO Karen Parkhill on the company's earnings call.
Parkhill added that given the impact of commodity-driven price increases, they expect below seasonal revenue performance in the fourth quarter. However, Parkhill noted that they do expect year-over-year revenue growth in the quarter, driven by pricing actions, share gains in premium categories, attach of higher-margin offerings, and increased penetration of AI PCs as more AI workloads move to edge devices.
In addition, Parkhill said that as they signaled last quarter, the company expects its fourth quarter margin to be below third quarter levels and then to sequentially improve as it looks ahead into fiscal year 2027. "In Print, our outlook is aligned with industry expectations for a mid-single digit decline in the hardware market in the second half of the calendar year," said Parkhill.
Parkhill also said that the company continues to expect memory and storage costs to increase further as a percentage of the bill of materials.
On a query related to Personal Systems, or PS, margin and the timing of memory cost increases, Parkhill said, "we were benefiting earlier in the year from that lower cost of inventory that was on our balance sheet and flowing through to the P&L. While we still have a mix of lower cost of inventory, I would say that benefit is largely behind us. And we now have higher cost of inventory that's working through our P&L, as I said. But on the cost side, we have other things that we are doing to help drive costs down."
Morgan Stanley increased its price target on the stock to $19 from $17 but kept its Underweight rating on the shares.
"F3Q results were mixed, with an EPS beat but concerning margin trends in PCs and Print. The setup into FY27 looks increasingly challenging, with PC unit/elasticity risk and Print margin pressure outweighing AI PC/mix upside and an uncertain PS margin recovery," said analysts led by Erik Woodring.
The analysts noted that the fiscal third quarter benefited from PC pricing upside, more than offsetting double-digit percentage year-over-year unit declines, though margins in PC and Print each missed the mark.
The analysts said they now expect more than 10% year-over-year PC unit declines in fiscal year 2027, and pricing only a partial offset, and margins to fall year-over-year — counter to management's soft guidance.
"We agree with mgmt that AI PC mix is increasing and helping ASPs, but we don't see them as replacement cycle accelerators, rather traditional PC cannibalizers," said Woodring and his team.
The analysts noted that in Print, structural demand headwinds and competitive pricing are likely to remain headwinds into fiscal year 2027, supporting low single-digit revenue declines and year-over-year margin pressure.
Evercore kept its In Line rating and $32 price target on the stock.
"We maintain our In Line rating and PT of $32. Though we view the company’s progress in AI PCs positively, as management now expects them to account for 70%+ of the mix in FY28," said analysts led by Amit Daryanani.